Blowup in the GOM

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a large cluster of convection that has developed in the GOM that is getting ventilated by an ULL just east of the YP. The GFS has been hellbent that something is going to develop in the GOM, this looks pretty healthy atm. It could be interacting with the front running wave. It has some decent upper divergence and lower convergence as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

[Javlin]

It caught my eye as well Scott I'm thinking that's a weak UUL/frontal boundary to the W of it?The trough to the NE over the US is moving out and another should be in that vicinity come 2/3days over WA. right now.The GFS keeps playing with the current situation in the Caribbean only time will tell but if that feature remains in the GOM in 24hrs ???

I see you ULL to the SE in the Yucatan Strait. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[ChrisH-UK]

It looks good at the 500mb but not much at the 850mb. This has been brewing since coming off the Yucatan Peninsula, looks like it will hit along the Texas coast more rain for Texas.

These are 500mb and 850mb vort from the NAM 12km model. The global models haven't really detected it.

[Frank P]

We certainly don't want that blob of rain on the MS coast, we need a couple of weeks to dry out.

[jasons2k]

Noticed as well this morning. Watching closely. Dying fronts in the GOM this time of year can always spawn a surprise.

[underthwx]

There is a large cluster of convection that has developed in the GOM that is getting ventilated by an ULL just east of the YP. The GFS has been hellbent that something is going to develop in the GOM, this looks pretty healthy atm. It could be interacting with the front running wave. It has some decent upper divergence and lower convergence as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

Thanks for posting this, the Cebtral Gulf looks interesting indeed....I wonder will this be another area of interest?

[HurricaneBrain]

I think this warrants a “near 0%” lemon if convection persists the next 5 hours

[jasons2k]

The "blob" looks like it's developing a mid-level spin, as depicted on the NAM, but maybe a little early/fast. Bears watching.

[lrak]

Sure does have the look, and the buoy readings are going down over the past 24 hours.

[Frank P]

Sure does have the look, and the buoy readings are going down over the past 24 hours.

The system in the GOM looks like it has more convection associated with it than anywhere in the Caribbean or Atlantic. Watching it closely. May not amount to anything but nothing else has amounted to any either this entire season… soon or later something has to give!

[Nimbus]

42055 is down to 29.85 but it dipped that low Wednesday, must not be much low level steering..

[SoupBone]

Sure does have the look, and the buoy readings are going down over the past 24 hours.

The system in the GOM looks like it has more convection associated with it than anywhere in the Caribbean or Atlantic. Watching it closely. May not amount to anything but nothing else has amounted to any either this entire season… soon or later something has to give!

It's going to bring rain to the Texas and Louisiana coast and inland this week. A pretty big rainmaker.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks like there is a low level swirl near 26n 92w that is trying to get going. It has definitely maintained convection through DMIN.

[tolakram]

If you had to guess which blob was a storm, if any ...

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12256&y=6584&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you had to guess which blob was a storm, if any ...

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12256&y=6584&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

https://i.imgur.com/e124a1M.png

I have learned my lesson on "looks". Pressures are still dropping at the buoy in the BOC though

[Tailgater33]

Cranking out some big time convection this morning. But still looks like mid level system that will probably bring more rain for southern Texas and southwestern La.

[Kludge]

Man... in any other year it seems this type of blow up in late August with that boiling water and low shear this thing would be causing lots of concern.

[Wampadawg]

Man... in any other year it seems this type of blow up in late August with that boiling water and low shear this thing would be causing lots of concern.

Yeah no kidding it’s like yawn!

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see some vorticity in the western Gulf of Mexico. Probably will not have time to do much before going ashore.

[Cpv17]

Starting to see some vorticity in the western Gulf of Mexico. Probably will not have time to do much before going ashore.

https://i.imgur.com/umxI5DL.gif

Mesoscale models are indicating a lot of heavy rains from this the next couple days across southeast TX.