Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Will this one be the first hurricane of the season?

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Yep, that is the 2nd MDR Lemon behind 90L

[Category5Kaiju]

Pretty decent wave...just needs to see how it fares in the open Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

In most years that would be a 30-ACE major

[LarryWx]

Just like with Invest 90L, I'll be looking to see how close the SAL is to this once it comes offshore. Regardless, this one looks much larger and with more convection vs how the preceding ones looked over W Africa.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just like with Invest 90L, I'll be looking to see how close the SAL is to this once it comes offshore. Regardless, this one looks much larger and with more convection vs how the preceding ones looked over W Africa.

I would certainly love to see if that means its chances of survival are going to be higher than previous waves.

[LarryWx]

Just like with Invest 90L, I'll be looking to see how close the SAL is to this once it comes offshore. Regardless, this one looks much larger and with more convection vs how the preceding ones looked over W Africa.

I would certainly love to see if that means its chances of survival are going to be higher than previous waves.

With it being larger, having more convection, looking more organized, and likely centered further south, we'll see whether or not that means less negating effect from the SAL to its north. I lean toward that, but who knows? Then again, I wonder if its large size may mean development would be slow if it would occur. It will be interesting to see how it looks soon after hitting water. Sometimes these kind of fizzle then, but models don't suggest it will fizzle.

[AtlanticWind]

It looks like it would come off Africa further south than the NHC is showing but I guess not.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The question is can we get a continuous solid signal before and after splashdown. The problem so far this year has been that models and their respective ensemble suites get bullish for waves over Africa before support slowly dwindles either right before or after the wave hits water. We'll have to see if this one bucks the trend - if so that would perhaps be a good sign for subsequent TWs.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON is not impressed with this wave in the E Atlantic as it has no more than a very weak, strung out low. I'm curious to see what the UKMET does. It developed what I think was this wave two runs in a row a couple of days ago before dropping it. ICON looks more impressive with a low in the Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m thinking this comes off at about 12-13n which is much more favorable than the previous waves that came off at 15n and also it has a vigorous MLC that the models don’t seem to be taking into account so my opinion is this is a go and won’t dissipate

[LarryWx]

12Z runs that are out so far for this wave over W Africa and what they do over the E MDR:
1. The UKMET doesn't develop this.
2. The GFS, ICON, and JMA have nothing more than a very weak, strung out low.
3. The CMC does a little bit more with it once it gets to near 40W though it is still just a 1008 mb low at hour 240.
4. We await the "King".

[cycloneye]

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[WiscoWx02]

If it were a normal season this wave would definitely develop, but with how unfavorable the Atlantic is this year....nah. Looks impressive on satellite for what it is worth though, plenty of spin, but a lot of dry air in front of it in terms of both SAL and mid latitude dry air. Chances are pretty close to 0 in my opinion.

[galaxy401]

If it were a normal season this wave would definitely develop, but with how unfavorable the Atlantic is this year....nah. Looks impressive on satellite for what it is worth though, plenty of spin, but a lot of dry air in front of it in terms of both SAL and mid latitude dry air. Chances are pretty close to 0 in my opinion.

So you don't think any more storms will develop this season?

[WiscoWx02]

If it were a normal season this wave would definitely develop, but with how unfavorable the Atlantic is this year....nah. Looks impressive on satellite for what it is worth though, plenty of spin, but a lot of dry air in front of it in terms of both SAL and mid latitude dry air. Chances are pretty close to 0 in my opinion.

So you don't think any more storms will develop this season?

Maybe some Caribbean stuff in October and perhaps 1 or 2 systems in the MDR in September but it's going to be pretty quiet imo.

[cycloneye]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a day or two. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562421968733114369

[SFLcane]

Seems pretty likely we could be tracking a tc in the mdr soon.