Surface Trough in GOM (Is Invest 98L)

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cycloneye
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Surface Trough in GOM (Is Invest 98L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:49 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern
Louisiana. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts
west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of
the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the
potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your
local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Roberts


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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:05 am

We have a lemon
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#3 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:08 am

Movement of wsw could give it the time it needs to develop… one of the meso models shows this getting into the 990s…
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#4 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:11 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Movement of wsw could give it the time it needs to develop… one of the meso models shows this getting into the 990s…

Which one?
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#5 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:12 am

WRF I believe is showing more spin up…
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#6 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:19 am

We need Wxman s take on this
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#7 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:21 am

Wxman isn’t worried about this infant of a system :) just some rain most likely
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am

Hopefully, parts of Texas get good rains from this that need it badly due to the drought there.

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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#9 Postby Wampadawg » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:24 am

cycloneye wrote:Hopefully, parts of Texas get good rains from this that need it badly due to the drought there.

https://i.imgur.com/TRKOT4D.gif

Amen brother amen
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#10 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:41 am

It only has about 48 hrs or so for development, we will see if it takes advantage of fairly good conditions for development before moving inland over southern TX, being steered WSW by the Heat Ridge over the southern Plains.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#11 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:46 am

The WRF-ARW model has gone a bit crazy for this system. 48 hours out I doubt it's going to happen however the NAM models have perked my interest up when it's radar model showed a bit of a eye like structure but no wind to match it. As for the use of mesoscale models quite often the small scale last minute storms don't appear in the global models due to size and time scale often just disappear in the resolution.

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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#12 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:59 am

I personally hope it comes closer here, I'm under extreme drought conditions.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#13 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:04 am

Iceresistance wrote:I personally hope it comes closer here, I'm under extreme drought conditions.


I’m in an exceptional drought. First time since 2011. Ridiculous. I’ve only received about 2” of rain in the past 3 months.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#14 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:04 am

Y’all can have it. I’ve been dealing with above average rainfall. There was some flooding yesterday for me
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#15 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:43 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Y’all can have it. I’ve been dealing with above average rainfall. There was some flooding yesterday for me


It always rains in Georgia.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#16 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:46 am

Update from Houston Met Jeff Lindner:

Trough axis and mid level low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the weekend and into the lower TX coast.

Satellite images, coastal radars, and offshore buoys/oil platforms indicate an elongated trough axis that extends off the coast of TX ENE toward the MS/AL coast with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along this boundary. This boundary can be traced back to the “front” that moved through the area with thunderstorms on Wednesday evening. A mid level low pressure area is located over SE LA and is moving slowly westward. Over the last few days, the ICON global model has been suggesting surface low pressure may begin to develop with the mid level circulation as it moves westward over the weekend and several of the higher resolution models also show various degrees of surface low pressure formation very near the TX coast on Saturday. Overnight both the GFS and ECWMF models have also trended toward some slight formation of lowering pressures along the TX coast this weekend. While the upper level winds are favorable for development near the TX coast, it is most likely that the mid level low will not have enough time to work down toward the surface before moving inland late Saturday into Sunday between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

The National Hurricane Center is indicating a 10% chance of development over the weekend.

With the mid/low level circulation expected to move W/WSW over the NW Gulf this weekend, it is expected that much of the shower and thunderstorm development will focus near the coast and offshore and this has been suggested by the high resolution models for the last 24 hours. With that said, areas south of I-10 will be well within the deep moisture envelope of the circulation and bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time over the next 48-72 hours. Greatest chances will be near the coast with lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast. Given PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible, so while grounds are dry and mostly will be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.

Tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon, but have been coming in below advisory levels at high tide over the last few days. Easterly and southeasterly low level winds on the north side of the surface trough/low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. Still think we will stay below advisory levels, but water will be way up the beaches at high tides over the weekend.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#17 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:50 am

jasons2k wrote:Update from Houston Met Jeff Lindner:

With the mid/low level circulation expected to move W/WSW over the NW Gulf this weekend, it is expected that much of the shower and thunderstorm development will focus near the coast and offshore and this has been suggested by the high resolution models for the last 24 hours. With that said, areas south of I-10 will be well within the deep moisture envelope of the circulation and bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time over the next 48-72 hours. Greatest chances will be near the coast with lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast. Given PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible, so while grounds are dry and mostly will be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.

Tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon, but have been coming in below advisory levels at high tide over the last few days. Easterly and southeasterly low level winds on the north side of the surface trough/low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. Still think we will stay below advisory levels, but water will be way up the beaches at high tides over the weekend.


We can't catch a break. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#18 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:09 am

Weak broad circulation clearly seen on vis sat loop this morning.

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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#19 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:52 am

Boy the Nam is getting somewhat stronger as well!
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:59 am

NDG wrote:Weak broad circulation clearly seen on vis sat loop this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/eQpckC8.gif

Looks like land proximity is aiding curvature. Interesting.
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