Surface Trough in GOM (Is Invest 98L)

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jasons2k
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Surface trough in GOM

#21 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:18 am

SoupBone wrote:
jasons2k wrote:Update from Houston Met Jeff Lindner:

With the mid/low level circulation expected to move W/WSW over the NW Gulf this weekend, it is expected that much of the shower and thunderstorm development will focus near the coast and offshore and this has been suggested by the high resolution models for the last 24 hours. With that said, areas south of I-10 will be well within the deep moisture envelope of the circulation and bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time over the next 48-72 hours. Greatest chances will be near the coast with lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast. Given PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible, so while grounds are dry and mostly will be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.

Tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon, but have been coming in below advisory levels at high tide over the last few days. Easterly and southeasterly low level winds on the north side of the surface trough/low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. Still think we will stay below advisory levels, but water will be way up the beaches at high tides over the weekend.


We can't catch a break. :lol: :lol: :lol:

I know. It’s frustrating to be honest. All week, they advertised 80% chances of rain for today. Even with yesterday’s update…still a solid 80% for today.

I thought it may get trimmed to 60% in the overnight update. I woke-up at 5:10AM to check and oh no…they whacked it in HALF!! Down to 40% - in one update!

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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#22 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:49 am

I missed this thread was up, so I'm moving this off the models thread to here.

Wampadawg wrote:We have a lemon to give something to talk about


Look at the spin just off the SW LA Coast. That's probably where the surface low is forming and shows up on the US Surface Map linked next.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Satellite
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Looks like the 12Z ICON only takes it down to about 1013 as it pulls off SW toward south Texas. Air feel is different today. It's breezy with lots of clouds at multiple levels but not that much rain as most of it is still offshore though should rotate in today.

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81212&fh=0

Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... OjAuNn19#/

NAM12km takes it down to 1009 or 1008 though south Texas is usually out of range for NAM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=20

I'm thinking highest this will get is probably some upper 20mph sustained winds and gusts into the 40's in rotating thunderstorms. So potential tropical depression if that. Bulk of the rainfall looks like it might move south of metro Houston though it should change the weather there a bit.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#23 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:58 am

Rainfall Amounts from the models:

GFS - 1-3" along the immediate Texas coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=66

NAM12km - 0.2-2" along TX Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=84

NAM 3km - 0.5-3" along TX Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=60

FV3 Hi-Res - 0.3-3" along TX Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=60

ICON is still filling in. Not much rain expected unless you're offshore.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#24 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:00 am

Thanks for not forgetting your bro in S TX :uarrow:
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#25 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:10 am

lrak wrote:Thanks for not forgetting your bro in S TX :uarrow:


Hey Karl, happy August! I don't know where the good WW3 model outputs are, but you guys will probably get some 2-3' swells.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#26 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:22 am

This system is tightening up....we may see some bands forming. The clouds outside my house going NE look like a band trying to slowly setup now.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#27 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:24 am

Steve wrote:
lrak wrote:Thanks for not forgetting your bro in S TX :uarrow:


Hey Karl, happy August! I don't know where the good WW3 model outputs are, but you guys will probably get some 2-3' swells.


Thanks Steve, already got a couple of text about Sunday and Monday. Hope you're right because it's been FLAT and hot.

Labor day going to hit https://www.wacosurf.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI0vbb5drB-QIVKGtvBB36EwnEEAAYASAAEgJd__D_BwE Little too much $$$ per hour but it's fun.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#28 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:35 am

There is a thread about Surface Trough - Recon for this area. Maybe will be a invest later today and that is why I posted it at active storms forum.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#29 Postby Kludge » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:37 am

jasons2k wrote:This system is tightening up....we may see some bands forming. The clouds outside my house going NE look like a band trying to slowly setup now.


Yeah no denying that there's a circulation. It's just a matter of what level, and is it working down to the surface. And the "band" that you're seeing has begun to show radar returns. Sure hoping we get a pleasant surprise out of this.
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Re: Surface trough in GOM

#30 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:12 pm

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Re: Surface Trough in GOM

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:33 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure centered
just offshore of the southern coast of Louisiana. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts
west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast over the weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along
portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more
information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service office and
the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Roberts


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Re: Surface Trough in GOM

#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:53 pm

I'm a bit surprised they haven't tagged it as 98L yet. It's looking decent on radar.
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Re: Surface Trough in GOM

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm a bit surprised they haven't tagged it as 98L yet. It's looking decent on radar.


They have recon for Saturday so the invest is comming.
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Re: Surface Trough in GOM

#34 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:57 pm

I wonder where the actual center will take shape… I can’t really find it on radar… still elongated!??
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Re: Surface Trough in GOM (Is Invest 98L)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:14 pm

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