When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- captainbarbossa19
- Category 5
- Posts: 1040
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Since it is almost August, I thought I would find out what other members think about when to expect the first major. If someone could create a poll, I would appreciate it. Here are the options:
1. July 21-31
2. August 1-10
3. August 11-20
4. August 21-31
5. September 1-10
6. September 11 and beyond
7. There will be no major this year
1. July 21-31
2. August 1-10
3. August 11-20
4. August 21-31
5. September 1-10
6. September 11 and beyond
7. There will be no major this year
0 likes
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
August 21-31 is my best guess
2 likes
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Made this question as a poll that will close for voting on July 31 at 2:42 PM EDT.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20 ![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20
Gray passed away 6 years ago but I'm pretty sure CSU still carries on the tradition? Honestly I don't know.
3 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2573
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
toad strangler wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20
Gray passed away 6 years ago but I'm pretty sure CSU still carries on the tradition? Honestly I don't know.
They do indeed.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 114
- Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:59 pm
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
i thin it will be August 11-20 because of shear and Saharan Dust need get less not doing that now
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
August 21-31.
4 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
cycloneye wrote:August 21-31.
Things can change real fast once you near 8/20!
4 likes
- Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Going for the usual August 21-31 BUT it should be early in that range like the 21st or the 22nd. Its completely dead and dry right now in the Atlantic but in exactly a month's time (August 15th-20 usually signals the ringing of the Atlantic peak szn bell) the basin should be the polar opposite of what it is today....if the models and forecasters are going to be correct about this being a very active/hyperactive season its going to have to get cooking in August! ![Cool 8-)](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif)
![Cool 8-)](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif)
1 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
- Old-TimeCane
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 142
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:01 pm
- Location: Myrtle Beach, SC
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
I went with August 21-31. Who are the 2 (so far) who said there won't be a major this year?
1 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2573
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20
Going to join you on August 11-20
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
1 likes
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
I went with August 11-20th. I think the first major will kick off a touch earlier than usual this year. I know there's been some back and forth about the indicators, but honestly, everything over the past few months has seemingly continued to trend towards a favorable setup for the Atlantic. The SST pattern looks fairly conducive for deep tropical activity, and we've seen some impressive wave trains already. IMO, seasons with favorable setups for deep tropical activity seem to be more heavily weighted towards the August-September portion of ASO and less backloaded like other seasons, which is why I'm throwing my hat in the Aug 11-20th ring.
1 likes
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Lunar Cancerian
![up arrow :uarrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrowu.gif)
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Going with August 21-31, specifically the last week of August.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Imagine if the first hurricane of this season is actually also our first major hurricane
I mean, something like this has happened in past years (interestingly, quite a few of them being List 2 years as well, such as 1980, 1992, 2004, and nearly 2010). 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, and 2011 apply too
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
I mean, something like this has happened in past years (interestingly, quite a few of them being List 2 years as well, such as 1980, 1992, 2004, and nearly 2010). 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, and 2011 apply too
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1809
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Went Aug.11th to 20th , I think it could even be a tad earlier but went with safer bet.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 219
- Age: 54
- Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
- Contact:
Re: When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?
Average Date of first #hurricane (1971-2021):
1971-1980: 7/29
1981-1990: 8/04
1991-2000: 8/03
2001-2010: 8/04
2011-2021: 7/31
Avg date: 8/2
Average date of first “major” hurricane:
1971-1980: 8/28
1981-1990: 9/06
1991-2000: 8/17
2001-2010: 8/18
2011-2021: 8/31
Avg date: 8/26
1971-1980: 7/29
1981-1990: 8/04
1991-2000: 8/03
2001-2010: 8/04
2011-2021: 7/31
Avg date: 8/2
Average date of first “major” hurricane:
1971-1980: 8/28
1981-1990: 9/06
1991-2000: 8/17
2001-2010: 8/18
2011-2021: 8/31
Avg date: 8/26
3 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, Blown Away, Google Adsense [Bot], Kingarabian, StormPyrate, Stratton23 and 54 guests