Will Alex form before June 1st?
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- cycloneye
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Will Alex form before June 1st?
Let's kick things early with the first poll of 2022. Those who apart from voting want to discuss about this question can do so.
There will be plenty of time to vote on this poll as I will close it on March 31rst.
There will be plenty of time to vote on this poll as I will close it on March 31rst.
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- Hurricanehink
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
I voted yes. With technology improving, the NHC is better able to assess borderline systems that might've been missed in the past. This isn't a criticism against the agency either - it's good to classify as many storms as possible. In the last decade, we had Ana in 2021, Arthur and Bertha in 2020, Andrea in 2019, Bonnie in 2016, Ana in 2015, and Alberto and Beryl in 2012 all form in the western Atlantic. That's where a (sub)tropical storm Alex would likely form, sometime in May 2022.
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Yep. I'm guessing there will be at least 1 system mid to late May.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Yes
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
I kind of wanted to vote "no" since I figure the trend of the first storm before June 1 has to be broken sometime, but I am seriously thinking it's going to happen again this year so I went with "yes."
Now if it IS broken this year, I may decide to start going all George Costanza and go against my instincts, but we'll see.
Now if it IS broken this year, I may decide to start going all George Costanza and go against my instincts, but we'll see.
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
I voted yes, seems like better odds.
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
The name Alex has always been associated with weird and anomalous storms in recent years, and they get more anomalous as time moves on:
- 1998: July MDR tropical storm
- 2004: Cat 3 in subtropics in early August, fifth latest start to a season (that went on to be hyperactive anyway)
- 2010: Cat 2 almost Cat 3 in western Gulf in June, with record-tying Cat-3-like pressure for June, arguably retirement-worthy for damage in Mexico
- 2016: Hurricane in January, enough said
Is Alex 2022 likely to form before June 1st from a meteorological standpoint? I think yes.
Do I want Alex to form before June 1st? Depends. It's hard to beat Alex 2016-level weirdness, but I still want Alex 2022 to be a unique and interesting storm, rather than a typical early season subtropical slop we've gotten used to recently. Unless it becomes a TS in March or something, I would probably prefer it to become, say, a July MDR hurricane.
Aside: This made me realize List 2 has always been used for above-average and hyperactive seasons in the current active era (only 2016 was not hyperactive). While I don't think hyperactivity is likely given the current ENSO outlooks, it does seem ominous for yet another above average season.
Also, I started tracking in 2017, and at that time this particular naming list seemed really far away to me. How time flies, and Covid certainly helped with that.
- 1998: July MDR tropical storm
- 2004: Cat 3 in subtropics in early August, fifth latest start to a season (that went on to be hyperactive anyway)
- 2010: Cat 2 almost Cat 3 in western Gulf in June, with record-tying Cat-3-like pressure for June, arguably retirement-worthy for damage in Mexico
- 2016: Hurricane in January, enough said
Is Alex 2022 likely to form before June 1st from a meteorological standpoint? I think yes.
Do I want Alex to form before June 1st? Depends. It's hard to beat Alex 2016-level weirdness, but I still want Alex 2022 to be a unique and interesting storm, rather than a typical early season subtropical slop we've gotten used to recently. Unless it becomes a TS in March or something, I would probably prefer it to become, say, a July MDR hurricane.
Aside: This made me realize List 2 has always been used for above-average and hyperactive seasons in the current active era (only 2016 was not hyperactive). While I don't think hyperactivity is likely given the current ENSO outlooks, it does seem ominous for yet another above average season.
Also, I started tracking in 2017, and at that time this particular naming list seemed really far away to me. How time flies, and Covid certainly helped with that.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Teban54 wrote:The name Alex has always been associated with weird and anomalous storms in recent years, and they get more anomalous as time moves on:
- 1998: July MDR tropical storm
- 2004: Cat 3 in subtropics in early August, fifth latest start to a season (that went on to be hyperactive anyway)
- 2010: Cat 2 almost Cat 3 in western Gulf in June, with record-tying Cat-3-like pressure for June, arguably retirement-worthy for damage in Mexico
- 2016: Hurricane in January, enough said
Is Alex 2022 likely to form before June 1st from a meteorological standpoint? I think yes.
Do I want Alex to form before June 1st? Depends. It's hard to beat Alex 2016-level weirdness, but I still want Alex 2022 to be a unique and interesting storm, rather than a typical early season subtropical slop we've gotten used to recently. Unless it becomes a TS in March or something, I would probably prefer it to become, say, a July MDR hurricane.
Aside: This made me realize List 2 has always been used for above-average and hyperactive seasons in the current active era (only 2016 was not hyperactive). While I don't think hyperactivity is likely given the current ENSO outlooks, it does seem ominous for yet another above average season.
Also, I started tracking in 2017, and at that time this particular naming list seemed really far away to me. How time flies, and Covid certainly helped with that.
While 2010 was fortunate to be extremely active but with the US escaping unscathed, had Earl maintained its strength or strengthened several hundred miles more to the west as it recurved, I think 2010 would have been a much different story.
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Alex 2010 still get on my nerves. Mexico had a very deadly and destructive season that year, with Alex, Karl, and Matthew. Unfortunately that happened during a period of 11 years that Mexico didn't send out any request of retirement - between Kenna 2002 and Ingrid/Manuel 2013. Alex should've been long gone from the list.
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Alberto 1994 Opal 1995 Jeanne 2004 Cindy & Dennis 2005 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Zeta 2020
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
If the models are to be believed and actually verify this time, this poll is going to have to be prematurely closed.
I mean, we're talking about Alex here. Who always loves to be not normal.
I mean, we're talking about Alex here. Who always loves to be not normal.
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Though this streak will have to end at some point, money says it will continue to its eighth year.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Kay '22, Hilary '23
Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
I think the streak will end this year, 2022's just chill like that
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Given that I think it will be an El Nino year at this point and that we tend to see more subtropical activity during El Nino years, I'm voting for a hard yes. I'd say at some point in April or May we'll get Alex in the subtropics.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Time goes by very fast and this poll is getting closer to be closed and that will be next thursday at 1:34 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet, cast your vote.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
cycloneye wrote:Time goes by very fast and this poll is getting closer to be closed and that will be next thursday at 1:34 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet, cast your vote.
Forgot to vote until now
I'm #40
And yes, the La Nina will allow an early season storm to develop
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Only because we continue to name storms long before we would have even know they existed just a few years back
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Warm waters in the gulf , carribean and off atlantic coast and La Nina or cool neutral
I would have to vote yes
I would have to vote yes
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
Based on the models, our streak might be in jeopardy
Something subtropical could still form between now and May 31.
Something subtropical could still form between now and May 31.
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Re: Will Alex form before June 1st?
AlphaToOmega wrote:Based on the models, our streak might be in jeopardy
Something subtropical could still form between now and May 31.
Subtropical development is always hard for models to forecast. With two weeks left in the month I still think we can get a short lived subtropical storm towards the end of the month.
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- captainbarbossa19
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