2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

Still not looking very convincing for peak climo imo

https://i.imgur.com/64U6Lmz.png
https://i.imgur.com/OnhXaj9.png

You have two lows in the basin, seems convincing to me. Too many lows and we can throw the run out.

[BobHarlem]

long range 12z gfs ensemble a bit active

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro still has that weak low in the E MDR late that prior runs had, but it then weakens to almost nothing.

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/76kPpjB8/gefs.gif

Like popcorn at the movies. 5 days til DING DING DING!

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/76kPpjB8/gefs.gif

Like popcorn at the movies. 5 days til DING DING DING!

Wecome to the party!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That's three separate areas the EPS is latching on to (the stuff off the mid-Atlantic coast is non-tropical):

Again in the short/medium term the BoC/western Gulf signal is the one I am intrigued by the most at the moment. EPS members have the window for cyclogenesis in 4-5 days. If model support continues into this evening perhaps a crayon is warranted for tomorrow morning. We'll see.

[LarryWx]

That's three separate areas the EPS is latching on to (the stuff off the mid-Atlantic coast is non-tropical):
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1008823653946892288/unknown.png
Again in the short/medium term the BoC/western Gulf signal is the one I am intrigued by the most at the moment. EPS members have the window for cyclogenesis in 4-5 days. If model support continues into this evening perhaps a crayon is warranted for tomorrow morning. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/0c9CWvw/54624340.gif

12Z EPS 228 vs 0Z EPS 240 for the two MDR areas:

- still has good number of members with E MDR low but they're still mostly weak and there aren't quite as many members. They are more spread out.
- has a bit more activity in the 45-60W region and this includes a few more of TS strength/1,000 mb or lower; the surface high to the north is a bit stronger and seems to be building westward above the low; thus, this looks like the potentially more dangerous of the two 12Z EPS MDR systems to me. Many of the members for this more westward potential form near 40W on or near 8/22. So, this would seemingly be from an AEW coming off ~8/18-20...so late this week look off Africa and see how it looks! This could be a sneaky one and is the AEW before the one the Euro ops have been developing.

That's my take fwiw. It is worth the price you paid for it.

[SFLcane]

One more....

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

:sick:

https://i.postimg.cc/3Rt6gbcQ/eps-jpeg.gif

Note in your animation that the mean of the surface high to the north of the WNW moving W MDR lows is also building westward, which tells me the chances of this potential W MDR system recurving safely may be lower than climo would suggest. Also, it being La Nina and still in August reduces recurving chances somewhat.

[skyline385]

EPS going for an Andrew repeat towards Miami

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, almost like...

August 20th...

The magic bell...

[SFLcane]

EPS has the ridge close to the magic spot!

[NDG]

By any chance is today August 15th?

[BobHarlem]

Ensembles sure lit up this afternoon. That near Panama to Belize to eventual Bay of Campeche thing is what I'm going to be watching in the shorter term.

[jaguars_22]

All models show the bay of Campeche system possibly not making it out into the western gulf and straight to Mexico! It would have to gain a lot of a north component in order to give us in Texas a worry!!!

[Teban54]

All models show the bay of Campeche system possibly not making it out into the western gulf and straight to Mexico! It would have to gain a lot of a north component in order to give us in Texas a worry!!!

That's also what models showed for Harvey initially, and we know what happened.

Not suggesting a Harvey repeat here of course.

[LarryWx]

EPS going for an Andrew repeat towards Miami

https://i.imgur.com/INsAxgD.png

The slightly odd thing is that the Euro operational isn't doing anything with this earlier wave that the EPS has members from threatening the Caribbean/CONUS.

Also, the 12Z GEFS has some members from this same wave that threaten the W basin.

[skyline385]

EPS going for an Andrew repeat towards Miami

https://i.imgur.com/INsAxgD.png

The slightly odd thing is that the Euro operational isn't doing anything with this earlier wave that the EPS has members from threatening the Caribbean/CONUS.

Also, the 12Z GEFS has some members from this same wave that threaten the W basin.

Yea I brought up the same thing yesterday about those ghost ensemble members on the EPS. Andy shed some light on it earlier today.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1559266473767571457