2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Talking about ensembles look who just backtracked again on the MDR activity




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[skyline385]

I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.

I think ensembles should definitely be leaned on 144+ hours out
to look for general devolpment possibilities.
The deterministic runs on tropical systems that far out are subject to too many varibles.

The ensembles at least may give some idea of general favorable/unfavorable conditions at longer times.

I think most people here don’t take operational runs seriously more than 120 hours out, people just post them because it is the model discussion thread. Looking at trends between operational runs can shed light on favourable/unfavourable trends as well similar to the ensembles. I do hope nobody here looks at those runs from the GFS 384 hours out and makes decisions based on it.


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[skyline385]

GEFS taking out Miami and NOLA with a single member lol




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[jlauderdal]

GEFS taking out Miami and NOLA with a single member lol

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220816/bc188f65c46a5229a204122fd96360de.jpg


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South Florida has been flattened many times on the model maps, we are still here

[skyline385]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

[cycloneye]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

https://i.imgur.com/Bm3qLuY.png

Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.

[skyline385]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

https://i.imgur.com/Bm3qLuY.png

Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.

Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.

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[toad strangler]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

https://i.imgur.com/Bm3qLuY.png

Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.

I don't buy track or strength output of any models until we have an actual TC. Then models become much more useful with the two.

[kevin]

06z GFS operational perhaps has one or two TDs in the WCar/GOM, but the main action is in the MDR with the first system starting to form at +114 hours. Eventually becomes a MH (looks OTS in this specific run). Behind it are two new TCs in the MDR. Until we actually have a defined source or already a TC, the ensembles are probably more valuable than single operational runs though.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The switch never fails. Get ready folks, it’s gonna be busy!

[SFLcane]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

https://i.imgur.com/Bm3qLuY.png

[floridasun]

i never look models after 10 days that much because hard to say that will happen or not look how models been this year with 10 days out but we suppose be getting busy now

[Kingarabian]

Weekly trying to blot out the map

https://i.imgur.com/Bm3qLuY.png

Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.

Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.

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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

[skyline385]

Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.

Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.

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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872





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[InfernoFlameCat]

Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.

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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA


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Tropical storm Christine formed as a tropical depression inland in 1973. This was over Western Africa.

[NotSparta]

There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA


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Tropical storm Christine formed as a tropical depression inland in 1973. This was over Western Africa.

49 years ago. Not too common for a TC to form before it even hits water

[LarryWx]

06z GFS operational perhaps has one or two TDs in the WCar/GOM, but the main action is in the MDR with the first system starting to form at +114 hours. Eventually becomes a MH (looks OTS in this specific run). Behind it are two new TCs in the MDR. Until we actually have a defined source or already a TC, the ensembles are probably more valuable than single operational runs though.

https://i.imgur.com/XGQIOAp.png

https://i.imgur.com/Swn4yOp.png

Just to clarify for those who may not be following closely, this is the same wave that the GFS from 5 runs earlier (0Z of 8/15/22) had as a hurricane hitting the Leewards on 8/29-30. Energy/moisture that comes off Africa to lead to this developing is per this run convection that is currently already centered over SW Mali near 7W, 12N, and already starts emerging from Africa tomorrow evening near 12N just as it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Because operational runs generally have little reliability going too far out in time, I think it is important to note how soon the seed from this potential trouble hits water and how far west it already is in Africa so that it can be followed closely. I'll try to see if I can see it on satellite.

[Teban54]

Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.

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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA


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According to HURDAT data (visualizer search result here):
- Unnamed TD, 1971: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Christine, 1973: TD inside Africa, peaked as TS
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
Most of them only have one advisory cycle inland, and their second data point is already over water.

IMO, the TDs over land may be suspect, and with today's technology they might not have been classified as such while still over Africa. I also think some of these TDs with long tracks typical of CV storms have probably reached TS strength at some point, even just briefly.

A poster said in the 2021 models thread that Donna 1960 may have been a storm before exiting Africa, but HURDAT still has Donna forming over water officially:

Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

There was evidence that Donna, in 1960 was already a storm before exiting Africa.

There are many examples of storms that were classified as TDs very close to the African coast. Most recent examples include Rene 2020, Helene 2018 and Florence 2018. All three systems were still inland 6 hours prior to the first data point as a TD.

[skyline385]

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA


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Tropical storm Christine formed as a tropical depression inland in 1973. This was over Western Africa.

49 years ago. Not too common for a TC to form before it even hits water

And even that was only a TD which I can see happening but the ECMWF is suggesting tropical storms below 999mb inland.


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[skyline385]

There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.

I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.

Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA


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According to HURDAT data (visualizer search result here):
- Unnamed TD, 1971: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Christine, 1973: TD inside Africa, peaked as TS
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
Most of them only have one advisory cycle inland, and their second data point is already over water.

IMO, the TDs over land may be suspect, and with today's technology they might not have been classified as such while still over Africa. I also think some of these TDs with long tracks typical of CV storms have probably reached TS strength at some point, even just briefly.

A poster said in the 2021 models thread that Donna 1960 may have been a storm before exiting Africa, but HURDAT still has Donna forming over water officially:

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

There was evidence that Donna, in 1960 was already a storm before exiting Africa.

There are many examples of storms that were classified as TDs very close to the African coast. Most recent examples include Rene 2020, Helene 2018 and Florence 2018. All three systems were still inland 6 hours prior to the first data point as a TD.

I agree, data from the 70s could very easily be suspect.


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