2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Long range but here is what Rob mentioned.

[AlphaToOmega]

Don't look at the 18Z GFS in the EPAC

[Hurricane2021]

970- mbar hurricane

[Category5Kaiju]

970- mbar hurricane

Place that same hurricane except in the Caribbean Sea. That would really cause this thread to go haywire lol

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, is it just my eyes, or does the GFS really think that there will be a lot more convective activity over Central America near May 11-13ish?

[toad strangler]

Getting close to GFS runs that end inside the EPAC season start.

[cycloneye]

Ok, is it just my eyes, or does the GFS really think that there will be a lot more convective activity over Central America near May 11-13ish?

Is the time of the CentralAmerican gyre in action when things form in the Caribbean side or Pacific side or sometimes nothing forms.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1520112909350756353

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1520112909350756353?s=20&t=MLZDztonVN3xMWwNhcEGYA

To support this, the most recent GFS has a very mild 1007 mbar spinup that just barely rides the coast of CA on the Atlantic side.

I have a gut feeling mid-May will be a time to watch potential early-season TC genesis in the Caribbean.

[skyline385]

There is a huge major forming in the Indian Ocean in the GFS the past few runs, i mean just ridiculously big...

[skyline385]

This one looks like its going to be a chonker. Look at all the moisture its surrounded by and the size of that primary band while being on top of 31C waters in the BoB.

[Meteophile]

Ecmwf also had it in the last run. Weaker, but still significant.

I don't like it. Just look at the environment...

[Kingarabian]

Yeah odds of IO development are high over the next week or so. MJO will be in the region leading to a strong WWB.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's mid-May, but the most recent GFS shows Alex in the WCAR during that timeframe. GFS has consistently been wanting to spin something up in that region around that timeframe for most of the past recent runs, but it looks like this is the strongest run thus far regarding that system.

[NotSparta]

It's mid-May, but the most recent GFS shows Alex in the WCAR during that timeframe. GFS has consistently been wanting to spin something up in that region around that timeframe for most of the past recent runs, but it looks like this is the strongest run thus far regarding that system.

And thus, with the GFS's first phantom WCAR storm, the season has begun

[Category5Kaiju]

It's mid-May, but the most recent GFS shows Alex in the WCAR during that timeframe. GFS has consistently been wanting to spin something up in that region around that timeframe for most of the past recent runs, but it looks like this is the strongest run thus far regarding that system.

And thus, with the GFS's first phantom WCAR storm, the season has begun

That's true

At least the GFS is not spinning something up randomly but rather seems to have a logical origin: that is, a CAG that gets going in mid-May. Whether we see anything, let alone an Atlantic or EPAC system, is still up in the air

[Zonacane]

Given the current setup, a CAG probably favors the WCAR

[Kingarabian]

Given the current setup, a CAG probably favors the WCAR

If you mean in respect to the present La Nina: CAGs are dependent on lower scale steering setups to determine whether its the EPAC or WCaribbean that see the TC. We won't know for sure until about 72 hours before TCG occurs. Could easily end up in the EPAC.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's mid-May, but the most recent GFS shows Alex in the WCAR during that timeframe. GFS has consistently been wanting to spin something up in that region around that timeframe for most of the past recent runs, but it looks like this is the strongest run thus far regarding that system.

And thus, with the GFS's first phantom WCAR storm, the season has begun

Many more to come before our first instance of actual cyclogenesis I bet...

[AJC3]

The 00Z global models from this morning are forming a significant 500MB Omega (or in the case of the ECM, a hybrid Omega-Rex) blocking pattern across NOAM in the day 7-10 time frame. The east side of this block features a pretty substantial 500MB cutoff low that sits and spins off the mid Atlantic/SE seaboard for several days. This suggests pretty decent potential for an XT surface low to develop off the coast early next week, which could make a run at becoming a hybrid type low, should the pattern verify. Your standard day 7-10 caveats apply.