2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

Ensembles sure lit up this afternoon. That near Panama to Belize to eventual Bay of Campeche thing is what I'm going to be watching in the shorter term.

That might be one of the last African waves staying low latitude all the way through the Caribbean/South America due to the SAL.
Then it looks like things will get busy further east with the mid Atlantic ridging replacing the TUTT.

[Andrewcane86]

In the words of Hector Salamanca: “ding ding ding.”


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[LarryWx]

From the 18Z GFS, here is a weak sfc low that emanates from energy coming off Africa on Saturday (8/20) and appears to me to be the same source that formed those strong TCs on the 12Z EPS and GEFS that threatened the W basin late this month: it goes quite far west as the high to the north goes west with it and keeps it from recurving, but the wave stays weak and thus never amounts to anything on this run. Regardless, I'll probably be focusing on this wave on subsequent GFS/Euro op/ens runs:

[skyline385]

This wave coming behind the first one (which clears the way for it) looks to be in a much favorable environment and will probably be the one to watch out for especially with the ridging off the SE coast (obv. too early to look at ridging but just an observation).

[SFLcane]

That big EPS group could potentially be fake as there continues to be Nothing at all on GFS (or Euro op) where it's trying to form it.

[SFLcane]

This wave coming behind the first one (which clears the way for it) looks to be in a much favorable environment and will probably be the one to watch out for especially with the ridging off the SE coast (obv. too early to look at ridging but just an observation).

https://i.imgur.com/z4uxczF.png
https://i.imgur.com/ct29OHW.png

Big Tutt waiting for it just ahead.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the TUTT *could* return off the US coast by early September.
That is more than a short wave depicted for Aug 31, they usually don't dig into the gulf that way in late August?
So still fantasy-land runs out beyond this week.

[Wampadawg]

We have a lemon!

[skyline385]

This wave coming behind the first one (which clears the way for it) looks to be in a much favorable environment and will probably be the one to watch out for especially with the ridging off the SE coast (obv. too early to look at ridging but just an observation).

https://i.imgur.com/z4uxczF.png
https://i.imgur.com/ct29OHW.png

Big Tutt waiting for it just ahead.

Looks like the shear is mostly up north.

[Cpv17]

All models show the bay of Campeche system possibly not making it out into the western gulf and straight to Mexico! It would have to gain a lot of a north component in order to give us in Texas a worry!!!

Actually quite a few ensembles have it going towards Texas and with a weakness over the state, I’d say a track towards Texas is a legit possibility.

[jaguars_22]

With all that shear how could anything get going.. gulf looks horrible with shear! Probably just a weak system

[aspen]

With all that shear how could anything get going.. gulf looks horrible with shear! Probably just a weak system

Super long-range shear forecasts from the GFS will definitely not age well. It has a problem of not properly modeling the transition to favorable base states, and I recall 384hr shear forecasts from last year not aging well. The most likely limitation for the BoC lemon will probably be time.

[Cpv17]

With all that shear how could anything get going.. gulf looks horrible with shear! Probably just a weak system

That map is for 384 hours and that’s extremely unlikely to verify. And the system will be in the Gulf later this week, not at hour 384.

[LarryWx]

That big EPS group could potentially be fake as there continues to be Nothing at all on GFS (or Euro op) where it's trying to form it.

It certainly could be a fake due to the environment not being moist enough as skyline said although it is also on the 12Z GEFS pretty prominently and also somewhat on the 18Z GEFS. Yes, it isn't at all on the Euro ops and is only very weak at most on the 6Z/12Z/18Z GFS runs. However, it actually was a hurricane that hit the Leewards on 8/29-30 on the 0Z GFS fwiw.

[Kingarabian]

I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.

[Cpv17]

I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.

Yeah, me too. Not sure what happened there.

[Teban54]

I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.

Probably because people were burnt out after multiple EPS false alarms earlier this season.

[LarryWx]

That lead MDR wave, which became a hurricane in the Leewards in the 0Z GFS run from 24 hours ago is too dry and is never more than a very weak low on the 0Z GFS.

[ElectricStorm]

Although the 0z op GFS run doesn't do much with that first wave, the 0z GEFS seems to be picking up on it more than previous runs so far

[AtlanticWind]

I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.

I think ensembles should definitely be leaned on 144+ hours out
to look for general devolpment possibilities.
The deterministic runs on tropical systems that far out are subject to too many varibles.

The ensembles at least may give some idea of general favorable/unfavorable conditions at longer times.