2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Iceresistance]

Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png

[SoupBone]

Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png

I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.

[hcane27]

Maybe this happened in 2013 ?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1560260727084126208

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1560197251787522048

[skyline385]

Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png

I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.

Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too




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[Spacecoast]

NASA 10 day forecast:

[Iceresistance]

Maybe this happened in 2013 ?

2017 had a Mid-August SAL outbreak, then came Harvey and Irma and the rest was history.

[LarryWx]

Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png

I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.

Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220818/5ead5d488ef14b6cac20849938d6f04b.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This newest SAL appears to me to be the main thing that tries to prevent the AEW now just off Africa from developing.

[LarryWx]

Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.

[SFLcane]

I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.

Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220818/5ead5d488ef14b6cac20849938d6f04b.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This newest SAL appears to me to be the main thing that tries to prevent the AEW now just off Africa from developing.

I'd like to know what the gefs is picking up on bringing to Florida it has been rather persistent with that idea. Unless off course its bluff which it might be.

[SFLcane]

Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.

It's not a common thing for sure.

[LarryWx]

Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.

It's not a common thing for sure.

Thanks. I just went back to 1995 and couldn't find even a single storm that did anything like this in any month. I thought perhaps Gustav of 2008 and Isidore of 2002, but the wiki writeups for both of these said they both originated solely from AEWs. I'll go back before 1995 and see if I can find any.

Edit: I then went all of the way back to 1950 and still found nothing like what the 6Z GEFS did from off of S America in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point.

[SFLcane]

Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.

It's not a common thing for sure.

Thanks. I just went back to 1995 and couldn't find even a single storm that did anything like this in any month. I thought perhaps Gustav of 2008 and Isidore of 2002, but the wiki writeups for both of these said they both originated solely from AEWs. I'll go back before 1995 and see if I can find any.

Edit: I then went all of the way back to 1950 and still found nothing like what the 6Z GEFS did from off of S America in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point.

This entire season thus far has been bogus.

[aspen]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

[SFLcane]

No sign of any of that nonsense the GEFS has

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1560308395466362881

[Teban54]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

1961:

That season ended with 189 ACE, yet only a single storm formed prior to September.

[SFLcane]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.

1961:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/6vb1b5fwlf363fqxe6xire3n6ab7om4.png
That season ended with 189 ACE, yet only a single storm formed prior to September.

LOL let's tell ourselves that.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1560308243578118144