wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.
I wouldn't be so quick to shut the door on Texas and Louisiana. I do agree that the drought will play a part in this season, but it's not just Texas and Louisiana that will play a part. Let's first compare April 2011 and the current drought. I like comparing to 2011 because it was a case of a lid being placed on the western Gulf for the most part.
Immediately you can see that in 2011 the drought was focused over the Southern Plains and U.S Southwest. Now let's look at the drought heading into July.
Again the drought was focused on the Southern Plains, Southwest, and Southeast. This made the Southern Plains a favorable spot for the ridge to sit on top for the Summer and keep the western Gulf clear. The Southern Plains would be the focus of the drought through the rest of the Summer. Now let's look back at the current drought again.
The entire western U.S is under drought right now and the only area CPC expects improvement is southern Arizona. This suggests that the ridge will be placed over the western U.S at times this Summer, which will leave Texas and Louisiana open for landfalls assuming all other conditions are met. There will be times where the ridge does park over the Plains, but I don't think it will be nearly as dominant as 2011. Additionally there will likely be times where we see the western ridge and Bermuda ridge bridge together, which can actually make parts of the Texas coast and Mexico locations where landfalls could occur. These are just my thoughts on how the 500mb pattern will play out this Summer, but it's definitely way to early to be hopeful about storms going east of the western Gulf states.
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.