Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 91L)

[galaxy401]

Here we go again...The disturbance that the models are picking up on is now being noticed by the NHC. Hasn't formed yet but it will likely later this week. Another possible Gulf threat coming?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern
Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the
week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is
expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5
to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea close to the east coast of
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Jagno]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

[aspen]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Yeah that’s a nope from me. Sure, the CMC doesn’t have the best reputation, but everything that has gotten into the Gulf these last few weeks has RI’d right into landfall, including two majors. Anything in the Gulf this season needs to be watched and nothing should be written off yet.

[Kohlecane]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Well Even though I slightly agree, the GFS had this a week ago as a decent cane getting near the GOM, Unsure when the euro picked it up as I have not looked at all the global models past hr/120 in a few days. From what I recall in previous storms is that the euro tends to lag a bit on it's OP runs so maybe that's the case, again I have not seen these recent runs since Friday, and at that time GFS developed a TD maybe a low end TS but opened it up in northern CAB, while the CMC was pretty consistent on bringing it to the GOM.

[aspen]

The Euro and CMC show a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Nicaragua by Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but similar to very early runs for Ida, the disturbance is too close to the coast and runs over land. The CMC eventually gets it into the Gulf next week. If we see the northern end of the wave axis become dominant like Ida’s precursor, the chances for a named storm go up.

Also, there’s still some ensemble support. Not a ton, but both the GEFS and EPS have some hurricane-force members for this disturbance across multiple runs.

[underthwx]

Hopefully just an area of rainy weather, and nothing more....

[sma10]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

"Fear mongering??" My goodness, what an overreaction! The NHC simply stated that there is a 20% chance of a TD forming over the next 5 days in the NW Caribbean (completely supported by model ensembles). They say nothing of the Gulf, nothing about a hurricane, and certainly nothing about SE Louisiana.

[jlauderdal]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Which local met posted that?

[Tireman4]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Which local met posted that?

Gee, the Euro..( I know it has had its issues in the past), being the worst model to detect a system this far in advance...I am not a pro met, but I would agree to disagree on that statement. I could be wrong, though.

[jlauderdal]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Which local met posted that?

I found it-Wade Hampton KPLC

https://www.facebook.com/Wade.Hampton.KPLC

[Tireman4]

Oddly enough one of our local mets just posted on FB stating that this was fear mongering and that the CMC and EURO were the worst possible models to detect a system this far in advance so people should not be concerned.

Which local met posted that?

I found it-Wade Hampton KPLC

https://www.facebook.com/Wade.Hampton.KPLC

Interesting. Well, he is a pro met. I am just a struggling Historian. I shall defer to he and his knowledge on this one.

[jlauderdal]

Which local met posted that?

I found it-Wade Hampton KPLC

https://www.facebook.com/Wade.Hampton.KPLC

Interesting. Well, he is a pro met. I am just a struggling Historian. I shall defer to he and his knowledge on this one.

Read his post, he is fired up because the GFS isn't showing anything which is really odd that the GFS doesn't see anything in the heart of hurricane season and now we have NHC with an area in the SW carib. He talks about how great the GFS was with IDA and it isn't showing anything now, well past performance is no guarantee of future results. He doesn't get a free pass.

[Tireman4]

I found it-Wade Hampton KPLC

https://www.facebook.com/Wade.Hampton.KPLC

Interesting. Well, he is a pro met. I am just a struggling Historian. I shall defer to he and his knowledge on this one.

Read his post, he is fired up because the GFS isn't showing anything which is really odd that the GFS doesn't see anything in the heart of hurricane season and now we have NHC with an area in the SW carib. He talks about how great the GFS was with IDA and it isn't showing anything now, well past performance is no guarantee of future results. He doesn't get a free pass.

I know. You and I have been around this rodeo a LONG time ( in our youth, 5 years old for me..I was 9 reading every month's Weatherwise). I was being facetious I agree with you 100 percent.

[Teban54]

I found it-Wade Hampton KPLC

https://www.facebook.com/Wade.Hampton.KPLC

Interesting. Well, he is a pro met. I am just a struggling Historian. I shall defer to he and his knowledge on this one.

Read his post, he is fired up because the GFS isn't showing anything which is really odd that the GFS doesn't see anything in the heart of hurricane season and now we have NHC with an area in the SW carib. He talks about how great the GFS was with IDA and it isn't showing anything now, well past performance is no guarantee of future results. He doesn't get a free pass.

IIRC the GFS was the first model to sniff out something in the Western Caribbean that would come after Ida. Probably just GFS doing GFS things of showing development in the long range, dropping them in the mid range and then coming onboard again once development is occurring.

[wxman57]

I'm not very concerned about this system. Most likely, it'll track west into Central America and southern Mexico as a disturbance or depression. The Canadian is not the model to look at for such systems. The only thing it'll have going for it is that we're coming up to the Labor Day weekend, and the tropics are quite aware of holidays.

[Tireman4]

I'm not very concerned about this system. Most likely, it'll track west into Central America and southern Mexico as a disturbance or depression. The Canadian is not the model to look at for such systems. The only thing it'll have going for it is that we're coming up to the Labor Day weekend, and the tropics are quite aware of holidays.

But there is a front..

[Frank P]

well if it develops or not here is what it looks like on the sat loops...

[Wampadawg]

well if it develops or not here is what it looks like on the sat loops...

https://i.ibb.co/xMgQR4S/goes16-truecolor-watl.gif

Does anyone give this one a chance?

[catskillfire51]

well if it develops or not here is what it looks like on the sat loops...

https://i.ibb.co/xMgQR4S/goes16-truecolor-watl.gif

Does anyone give this one a chance?

The NHC does…. 0% in 48 hours and 20% in 5 days…

[Zonacane]

Isn't this... where we began?