Tropical Wave off the Coast of Africa (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

The models like this wave but let's see in reality how things evolve down the road.

Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west African
coast by the middle of next week. Afterwards, environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development
toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Unless they give this an invest tag before it’s over water, this is easily gonna be one of the longest pre-invest threads ever.

The low latitude will help future 90L out a lot by having it over ~28C water for its earliest few days, and out of the way of any SAL that might be present. This has a good shot of becoming a MDR major before recurving…assuming it actually does recurve.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro a little more west but goes NW eventually.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with a quick turn to the north:

[aspen]

18Z GFS with a quick turn to the north:

https://i.postimg.cc/6p3YGjVy/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh120-222.gif

Keep in mind that the GFS usually underestimates ridges, while the Euro overestimates them. A recurve around 40-50W seems more likely than 25-30W. It may also be overestimating how long 98L’s remnants will be around and how much they’ll weaken the ridge.

[AlphaToOmega]

Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west African
coast by the middle of next week. Afterwards, environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development
toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ConvergenceZone]

thank goodness models are making this a fish storm(as was expected)....After IDA we will need a long break...........

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of
next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of
next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Blown Away]

97L, TD10, and this TW in a big Central Atlantic recurve loop.

[aspen]

I hope this follows the Euro’s track: staying around 15N or lower until 40-45W before recurving. It’ll be able to rack up a ton of ACE and have the opportunity to become a major without threatening land. The GFS’s solution of a recurve the moment it exists Africa seems very unrealistic, and we’ve seen it bust with early recurves with TD10.

[Shell Mound]

97L, TD10, and this TW in a big Central Atlantic recurve loop.

Didn't you once suggest that the models were wrong about an early OTS path?

[Blown Away]

97L, TD10, and this TW in a big Central Atlantic recurve loop.

Didn't you once suggest that the models were wrong about an early OTS path?

Lol, maybe 4 days ago, the current globals so consistent with a early recurve and it seems likely b/c 97L & TD10 drifting around in the Central Atlantic not allowing HP to build. If this current TW stays weak/shallow up to at least 50W then it becomes a threat to W basin.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form toward the end of next week as the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Stormybajan]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form toward the end of next week as the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/wcpK5py.png

Code red for a wave that hasnt even moved off Africa , add this to the collection

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa
by Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression
is likely to form toward the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[toad strangler]

97L, TD10, and this TW in a big Central Atlantic recurve loop.

Didn't you once suggest that the models were wrong about an early OTS path?

omg if trolling like that was allowed there would be a separate forum for your gaffes SM lol

[aspen]

All models are showing TD10/Kate creating a nice big gap in the ridge at around 50W which this storm (future Larry) gets pulled up into. Unless another ridge builds back in to block it, Larry will probably be a safe, high-ACE recurve.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or
latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L coming soon.

GENESIS027, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2021, DB, O, 2021082900, 9999999999, , 027, , , , GENESIS, , AL792021

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc