Why Does the I Curse Exist?

[Category5Kaiju]

So this is a question I have been recently wondering with Ida threatening to strike Louisiana as a major hurricane and likely cause considerable damage, fatalities, and scars sadly. Aside from Ida (which very possibly could be #12), we have had 11 retired I names in the Atlantic basin (with H names coming in with 6 so far and J names 5), and if retired names by letter were to be graphed, there would be a noticeable and very prominent spike with the I names. However, perhaps my question would be why the ninth named storm in many seasons is oftentimes a powerful or impactful storm, like I know typically speaking the I named storm usually coincides with the peak season months, but why is there not a more uniform distribution with H and J names for example if this were the case?

[AutoPenalti]

It's not really cursed, it just so happens the Letter "I" falls during an active period where conditions are just right for bad TC's.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Percentage wise the most likely name to be retired is the W name. 50% of W named storms have been retired. Wilma. It used to be 100% but Wilfred formed last year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd say in an average post-2000 season the "I" named storm usually develops in late-August or early-September, when things are usually at their worst. Irma, Ingrid, Ida...

[zhukm29]

Still pretty interesting that the H and J named storms have also been developing during the active period as well recently, but it's only the I storms that have been consistently causing trouble. In 2020 we even had Iota make a run at Category 5, even though it formed in November.

[SconnieCane]

There's a corollary to the "I Curse." That is, storms with 3-4 letter, monosyllabic or disyllabic "I" names become the worst of the worst:

Ivan
Igor
Ike
Irma

...and now it would seem Ida is poised to join that list.

Worryingly, Ian exists on next year's list, having replaced Igor. Of course, this could just be due to a preponderance of "I" names being short and mono/disyllabic.

Then we have Isaias, which somehow manages to pack four syllables into six letters.

[FireRat]

Looks like Ida wishes to say Ida best

[Steve]

I rule.

[Tekken_Guy]

There's a corollary to the "I Curse." That is, storms with 3-4 letter, monosyllabic or disyllabic "I" names become the worst of the worst:

Ivan
Igor
Ike
Irma

...and now it would seem Ida is poised to join that list.

Worryingly, Ian exists on next year's list, having replaced Igor. Of course, this could just be due to a preponderance of "I" names being short and mono/disyllabic.

Then we have Isaias, which somehow manages to pack four syllables into six letters.

Isabel?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[SconnieCane]

There's a corollary to the "I Curse." That is, storms with 3-4 letter, monosyllabic or disyllabic "I" names become the worst of the worst:

Ivan
Igor
Ike
Irma

...and now it would seem Ida is poised to join that list.

Worryingly, Ian exists on next year's list, having replaced Igor. Of course, this could just be due to a preponderance of "I" names being short and mono/disyllabic.

Then we have Isaias, which somehow manages to pack four syllables into six letters.

Isabel?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yeah, it doesn't fit this pattern, but although it did become a Cat. 5 its landfall (while certainly impactful) wasn't quite as exceptional as the others, IMO.

[EquusStorm]

This is the advantage of sequential naming like the WPac and CPac do, picking up where last year left off, which avoids certain letters always being in the peak of the season. Doubt the NHC basins will ever do that though.

[SconnieCane]

This is the advantage of sequential naming like the WPac and CPac do, picking up where last year left off, which avoids certain letters always being in the peak of the season. Doubt the NHC basins will ever do that though.

The disadvantage of that though, is you can't use what letter you're on at a given time as a quick proxy for how busy the season has been so far.

As in "Holy crap, it's only the end of August and we're on 'K'?!"

Or "It's September already and the "D" storm only just formed? LAME! Models don't even show that sloppy tropical storm down by Barbados doing much of anything!"

[SconnieCane]

Washington Post even did an article on the "I Curse" after Ida formed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... -letter-i/

Interestingly, "M" has also seen more than its fair share of notable Atlantic hurricanes, especially in recent decades with three straight from 2016-18. Marilyn, Mitch, Matthew, Maria, Michael.

It's just bizarre that the other mid-alphabet letters surrounding those two don't have a similar litany of big-time storms, even though they should likewise come up a lot during peak season. Of course there are exceptions - Katrina, Joaquin, Harvey - but just not a comparable onslaught to I and M.

[Blinhart]

I think because on average the I storm happens at or near Peak Hurricane Season time and goes through the prime area for intensification.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is the advantage of sequential naming like the WPac and CPac do, picking up where last year left off, which avoids certain letters always being in the peak of the season. Doubt the NHC basins will ever do that though.

The disadvantage of that though, is you can't use what letter you're on at a given time as a quick proxy for how busy the season has been so far.

As in "Holy crap, it's only the end of August and we're on 'K'?!"

Or "It's September already and the "D" storm only just formed? LAME! Models don't even show that sloppy tropical storm down by Barbados doing much of anything!"

Agreed; however, I sometimes wonder how the WPAC is able to allow for a rolling list of storms (many names of which are not even alphabetically organized but are words) given that basin is even busier than the Atlantic oftentimes and have many individuals who are typically affected by its activity in the Philippines, China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Korea

[underthwx]

Perhaps it is an I coincidence...rather than a curse...it's tragic and a terrible event...for whatever reason there is.....my respects to all of you....

[FireRat]

Washington Post even did an article on the "I Curse" after Ida formed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... -letter-i/

Interestingly, "M" has also seen more than its far share of notable Atlantic hurricanes, especially in recent decades with three straight from 2016-18. Marilyn, Mitch, Matthew, Maria, Michael.

It's just bizarre that the other mid-alphabet letters surrounding those two don't have a similar litany of big-time storms, even though they should likewise come up a lot during peak season. Of course there are exceptions - Katrina, Joaquin, Harvey - but just not a comparable onslaught to I and M.

It really does seem bizarre! I would say a probable explanation is that the "i" tends to happen around the Peak of the season, and the 'M' happens near the "Secondary Peak" in October. Yet storms like Ida and Maria came weeks before the absolute peaks, just dumb luck? Or is there more, perhaps some weird 'number curse' since M is the 13th letter, and 9 ain't too nice either

The coincidences are quite remarkable though, it's been very noticeable for some time now and Ida has shown this to be a thing. I'll be doggone if Mindy is the next big one of 2021!

[Nuno]

Missed opportunity by WMO/NHC or whoever the ultimate authority on the structure of these lists by not just continuing where names left off from the previous season like other basins.

Most people do not care that it starts at the letter "A" each season. It doesn't actually have to, and thus this situation can be easily avoided.

This is the advantage of sequential naming like the WPac and CPac do, picking up where last year left off, which avoids certain letters always being in the peak of the season. Doubt the NHC basins will ever do that though.

The disadvantage of that though, is you can't use what letter you're on at a given time as a quick proxy for how busy the season has been so far.

As in "Holy crap, it's only the end of August and we're on 'K'?!"

Or "It's September already and the "D" storm only just formed? LAME! Models don't even show that sloppy tropical storm down by Barbados doing much of anything!"

People who track storms don't need a quick proxy though. General public should always be prepared no matter where in the alphabet we are or where in the season. Maybe this will keep them on their toes and keep the media hysteria to a minimum.

[wwizard]

Before 2000, only 2 "I" storms had ever been retired. Ione-'55, Inez-'66. Since 2000, Ida is sure to be the 10th retired "I" name. Definitely has a lot to do with the "I" storm popping up in peak season now.

The "A" storms for example, had more storms retired before 2000 because for the most part the 1st storm of the year wasn't forming until August. Now, we've had 7 years in a row where the "A" storm has formed before June. In fact, the last "A" storm to be retired was Allison in 2001.

We're just in a lot more active period now where the storms really don't start getting nasty until 8, 9, 10 names down the list. Of course, that doesn't explain why "H" or "J" hasn't seen that kind of uptick in retired storms like "I" has. Got no answer for that other than just coincidence. There's been 7 "A" storms and 9 "C" storms that have been retired, but only 3 "B" storms. "M" has more retired names (6) than "J" does (5) and "M" didn't have it's 1st retired name until 1995. No rhyme nor reason to it.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Before 2000, only 2 "I" storms had ever been retired. Ione-'55, Inez-'66. Since 2000, Ida is sure to be the 10th retired "I" name. Definitely has a lot to do with the "I" storm popping up in peak season now.

The "A" storms for example, had more storms retired before 2000 because for the most part the 1st storm of the year wasn't forming until August. Now, we've had 7 years in a row where the "A" storm has formed before June. In fact, the last "A" storm to be retired was Allison in 2001.

We're just in a lot more active period now where the storms really don't start getting nasty until 8, 9, 10 names down the list. Of course, that doesn't explain why "H" or "J" hasn't seen that kind of uptick in retired storms like "I" has. Got no answer for that other than just coincidence. There's been 7 "A" storms and 9 "C" storms that have been retired, but only 3 "B" storms. "M" has more retired names (6) than "J" does (5) and "M" didn't have it's 1st retired name until 1995. No rhyme nor reason to it.

I believe another factor in making A and C a bit less likey to be retired and I more likely than before is that before 2002 subtropical storms were not given names even if they passed the threshold for wind speed. So in addition to the seasons being more active, that tends to push names for really bad storms down the alphabet.

I am not a mathematician, but I think the fact that I has had so many more retirements the last two decades than H and J could statistically just be a matter of chance. We are still dealing with a total data set that's small enough that I'm not sure the difference would be statistically significant.