Will Ana form before June 1st?

Ryxn · #1 Postby **Ryxn** » Sun May 09, 2021 12:23 am

It looks like Ms. East Pacific might soon birth her first pre-season named storm since 2017. Will Mr. Atlantic follow in her footsteps? Or will he break his 6-year streak that started in 2015 with, funny enough, Ana.

Fun fact: If Ana fails to form before June 1st but forms before August 1st, it would be the first time in an unprecedented 24 YEARS that a storm named Ana forms in June or July. The last time it happened was way back in 1997. Considering that on average, the first named storm forms in early July, this is pretty impressive.

Any thoughts?

Also PS, I would like this to be a poll.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 09, 2021 4:53 am

Made a poll that will be open for voting until May 24 at 5:52 AM.

Fancy1001 · #3 Postby **Fancy1001** » Sun May 09, 2021 2:12 pm

99% sure.

CyclonicFury · #4 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sun May 09, 2021 2:17 pm

It's possible, but likely not until the last 10 days of the month at the earliest. Not any model signal right now.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Sun May 09, 2021 7:14 pm

Nope, not until August.

Astromanía · #6 Postby **Astromanía** » Sun May 09, 2021 7:19 pm

ElectricStorm · #7 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Sun May 09, 2021 10:50 pm

Gonna go with no on this one. It is pretty crazy though that we've gone an entire list cycle with a storm forming in May...

ClarCari · #8 Postby **ClarCari** » Sun May 09, 2021 10:55 pm

Only way would be a CAG battle between the EPAC and West Carr/Bay of Campeche. So maybe a Blanca-Ana type situation like last year’s Amanda-Cristobal. The GFS has actually hinted at such a chance for this to happen for the last couple of weeks of this month.

If that doesn’t happen then the streak shall end lol.

InfernoFlameCat · #9 Postby **InfernoFlameCat** » Mon May 10, 2021 10:44 am

I think yes but with extremely high uncertainty. 50/50 one forms. We will not have a favorable environment for a tc until just before June starts because mainly of an unfavorable MJO. So I think if one does form it will be just before June.

HurricaneEnzo · #10 Postby **HurricaneEnzo** » Mon May 10, 2021 11:04 am

Yep. I'm guessing around May 20

Kat5 · #11 Postby **Kat5** » Mon May 10, 2021 11:30 am

Early June imo.

Iceresistance · #12 Postby **Iceresistance** » Mon May 10, 2021 11:47 am

I don't know, I'm going to wait it out to see how it goes . . .

Chris90 · #13 Postby **Chris90** » Mon May 10, 2021 1:30 pm

I voted no. I feel like now the NHC is going to start their outlooks on May 15th instead of June 1st, the Atlantic will wait until the bell rings on August 20th to give us Ana just to spite them.

I don't really think it'll take until August 20th, but I do feel like it'll be after June 1st.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:23 pm

Chris90 wrote:I voted no. I feel like now the NHC is going to start their outlooks on May 15th instead of June 1st, the Atlantic will wait until the bell rings on August 20th to give us Ana just to spite them.

I don't really think it'll take until August 20th, but I do feel like it'll be after June 1st.

I made another poll where one of the options is August and beyond so you can vote there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121796&p=2902572#p2902572

#15 Postby **abajan** » Tue May 11, 2021 8:07 am

wxman57 wrote:Nope, not until August.

Surely, you jest.

#16 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Tue May 11, 2021 9:13 pm

We are due not to have a May storm
So I went No.

My guess this year is July for Ana.

DorkyMcDorkface · #17 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Tue May 11, 2021 10:11 pm

I've pretty much been conditioned to expect the unexpected with the Atlantic in recent years, but with that being said I am not seeing any model support for anything right now and the MJO is not in a favorable position so I would have to say no.

#18 Postby **chaser1** » Sat May 15, 2021 9:56 am

Count me in as a yes. GFS has been throwing out sporadic hints of a Caribbean forming low that progresses north over Cuba. Current 6Z GFS shows this with increasing definition and moves the time frame up to begin around 186 hr.s. It fits Climo and if truly originating in the W. Caribbean, would be fully tropical. Even if appearing as a marginally sheared depression, my bet would be on NHC to upgrade regardless of sustained Gale Force winds well removed from center.

Audrey2Katrina · #19 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat May 15, 2021 12:24 pm

chaser1 wrote:Count me in as a yes. GFS has been throwing out sporadic hints of a Caribbean forming low that progresses north over Cuba. Current 6Z GFS shows this with increasing definition and moves the time frame up to begin around 186 hr.s. It fits Climo and if truly originating in the W. Caribbean, would be fully tropical. Even if appearing as a marginally sheared depression, my bet would be on NHC to upgrade regardless of sustained Gale Force winds well removed from center.

Regardless of sustained Gale force winds well removed from center -- precisely. Can't let that six year string end. JMHO. :grrr:

Hammy · #20 Postby **Hammy** » Sat May 15, 2021 3:05 pm

Voted no. GFS is backing off and at no point has any other model been on board.