Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean
Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible late this week
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[MarioProtVI]

Aaand here we go. This is likely going to take quite a while to form and it kind of gives me pre-Otto vibes. Don’t really expect real development for another couple days or so.

[toad strangler]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

[Nimbus]

The 18Z GFS had a 991 storm near the tip of the Yucatan at 168 hours.

[DestinHurricane]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

What's so far fetched about it? It stalls a bit over the Yucatan but I don't see anything else that makes it extremely far fetched. It's not some 880mb monster run.

[ElectricStorm]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

And that's why it's the happy hour

[toad strangler]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

What's so far fetched about it? It stalls a bit over the Yucatan but I don't see anything else that makes it extremely far fetched. It's not some 880mb monster run.

a BIT? Try THREE DAYS .... then it stalls for THREE DAYS over FL

[Nimbus]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

What's so far fetched about it? It stalls a bit over the Yucatan but I don't see anything else that makes it extremely far fetched. It's not some 880mb monster run.

a BIT? Try THREE DAYS

You noticed the ridging later in the run, very funny ha ha.

[cheezyWXguy]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

What's so far fetched about it? It stalls a bit over the Yucatan but I don't see anything else that makes it extremely far fetched. It's not some 880mb monster run.

a BIT? Try THREE DAYS

The track at that point seems possible, albeit not particularly likely to me. It’s basically what sally did prior to landfall, and what cristobal did in the BOC earlier this year. Honestly, I hope this stall does happen, because a faster movement into the GOM would mean less land interaction and more opportunity to reach the US coastline before shear kicks in from the next approaching trough. But I agree with your earlier sentiment. Pretty much anything beyond the Yucatán landfall is entertainment at this point, since tracks seem to be varying wildly after that.

[SFLcane]

Blake uses the GEFS.

[aspen]

That 18z GFS Happy Hour run was one for the AGES. That solution is extremely far fetched but we have something real to track for sure.

What's so far fetched about it? It stalls a bit over the Yucatan but I don't see anything else that makes it extremely far fetched. It's not some 880mb monster run.

a BIT? Try THREE DAYS .... then it stalls for THREE DAYS over FL

The Yucatán stall in the 18z run reminds me a bit of Isidore ‘02, although I’m not sure if that storm stalled for 3 days. It was enough to completely fracture its core and prevent it from ever regaining hurricane status.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

EPS lookin' very trough-y. Would be tough for anything to develop in the Western Caribbean to avoid being pulled north.

[psyclone]

One thing that makes this year different from the last 2 is the early season blast of chilly and dry air headed for the gulf coast. this will degrade water temps over the northern gulf and flood the field with dry air...something that often disrupts late season action. This stands in sharp contrast to the lead up to Michael which featured insane late season heat that no doubt enabled Michael's exceptional intensification right up to landfall. Even at my location at near the coast at latitude 28 i have low 60's in my nws point and click (hooray for that!). This is a big change and it is worth noting. It is also just a few days out (meaning it is actually going to happen) and it looks to hang around for awhile. The CPC outlooks through 14 days show drier than normal conditions everywhere along the gulf except the florida peninsula so if something does form it is likely to end up there rather than the northern GC...at least that looks like the best odds as of now. It feels like we've just skipped ahead to latter October...which, if so, would suit many just fine..

[toad strangler]

18Z GEFS members are ALL OVER THE PLACE like scatter shot. Once I saw no posts on it yet I knew the members were either non existent or all over the place. It was the latter

[Blown Away]

IF something develops in the NW Caribbean in October @90% chance it will take 1 of 3 tracks, bury into Yucatán, NE over Cuba missing Florida, or NNE over SFL with a landfall between Ft. Myers and Key West and then NNE over FL peninsula...

[jlauderdal]

IF something develops in the NW Caribbean in October @90% chance it will take 1 of 3 tracks, bury into Yucatán, NE over Cuba missing Florida, or NNE over SFL with a landfall between Ft. Myers and Key West and then NNE over FL peninsula...

Whats the 10%?

[boca]

10% to panhandle. Just kidding.

[aspen]

Quite a spread between the 18z GFS and 18z GFS-Para. The former takes this into the Yucatán, while the latter takes this into Cuba. I think the two models are currently showing the east and west extremes for the track of “future Gamma”; the actual track could end up somewhere in between.

[caneman]

IF something develops in the NW Caribbean in October @90% chance it will take 1 of 3 tracks, bury into Yucatán, NE over Cuba missing Florida, or NNE over SFL with a landfall between Ft. Myers and Key West and then NNE over FL peninsula...

Tampa most assuredly should be included in that

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont know that I have ever seen a storm take a hard right turn like that before. That would be really bad for Tampa.