Western Atlantic Trough

[StAuggy]

If someone told me this was a developing storm I don’t know that I’d question it based on IR presentation alone. What the heck is happening with this area. To me it appears to have a mini vortical hot tower in the middle of what appears to be a “cdo” it has created overnight.

https://imgur.com/a/dAj4WKy

[northjaxpro]

If someone told me this was a developing storm I don’t know that I’d question it based on IR presentation alone. What the heck is happening with this area. To me it appears to have a mini vortical hot tower in the middle of what appears to be a “cdo” it has created overnight.

https://imgur.com/a/dAj4WKy

At the moment, it is the most intriguing feature in the N. ATL basin.

[FireRat]

Dude, what IS that?
Remains of Wilfred perhaps, now moving sw?

[xironman]

If someone told me this was a developing storm I don’t know that I’d question it based on IR presentation alone. What the heck is happening with this area. To me it appears to have a mini vortical hot tower in the middle of what appears to be a “cdo” it has created overnight.

https://imgur.com/a/dAj4WKy

At the moment, it is the most intriguing feature in the N. ATL basin.

I would give that title to the twin naked swirls to the west of this, I am not sure I have seen this before

[StAuggy]

If someone told me this was a developing storm I don’t know that I’d question it based on IR presentation alone. What the heck is happening with this area. To me it appears to have a mini vortical hot tower in the middle of what appears to be a “cdo” it has created overnight.

https://imgur.com/a/dAj4WKy

At the moment, it is the most intriguing feature in the N. ATL basin.

I would give that title to the twin naked swirls to the west of this, I am not sure I have seen this before

https://i.imgur.com/JgfV7IR.jpg

I started a thread about one of those twins the other day... and then noticed it had a friend. There are actually a lot of swirls and vortices spinning around the Atlantic currently

[StAuggy]

https://imgur.com/a/IQDZ17P

as the high top clouds fade out towards the end of the loop now i can visibly see what appears to be some sort of mid to upper level rotation... kind of elongated. so is this a mid or upper level low or some type of wave axis? interested to see if it fires up strong convection again overnight

[Hurricaneman]

I’m wondering if this feature is the one the models have develop in the western Caribbean

[StAuggy]

I’m wondering if this feature is the one the models have develop in the western Caribbean

I’m starting to think that piece of energy migrating sw will be a player once the wave axis enters the caribbean. It did continue to fire off some more convection off/on and it appears to still have some spin to it. It’s def more apparent at the mid/upper levels but once it gets further south it’s game on with the amount of convection happening there already imo

[StAuggy]

Also as an update this area is now located around Anguilla and St Maarten

[StAuggy]

https://i.imgur.com/JPOCsOy.jpg

Recent ascat pass of the approaching wave axis. I see two areas with a slight turning of wind directions... nothing close to closed. The area I’ve noted in this thread and the middle part of the wave with the larger convective blob currently

[AJC3]

This thread has morphed into a discussion of two different features. The area of convection mentioned in the original post developed near an old decayed frontal boundary, an interaction with an upper level trough. The last post mentions the passage of a tropical wave axis which moved into the area, but was well to the east when this thread was started. I've included the pertinent parts of this weekend's TWDs from TAFB to show the difference between the two features...

The western Atlantic trough...

805 AM Sat Sep 26...A weakening stationary front extends from 32N48W to 25N58W, and a surface trough is evident from satellite and scatterometer data from 27N61W southward to near Puerto Rico. A weak cyclonic circulation associated with the trough is centered near 26N65W.

205 PM Sat Sep 26...A 1017 mb surface low near 25N66W is along a N-S oriented trough from 20N65W to 28N66W. The low shows up well in the latest ASCAT data. Strong E winds are north of the low from 27N-29N between 63.5W-66W. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of low. A small mid to upper-level trough just NE of the Leeward Islands is giving way to an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 19N-23N between 56W-59W. Additional showers and tstorms are seen from 14N-19N between 54W-58W.

805 PM Sat Sep 26...A 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N67W with a trough extending from 28N67W to 21N66W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with the low. The low shows up well in the latest ASCAT data. Strong E winds are north of the low from 27N-29N between 63.5W-66W.

205 AM Sun Sep 27...A surface through extending from 28N69W to 23N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.

805 AM Sun Sep 27...A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 27N69W. A surface trough extends from 29N69W to the low to 25N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough/low.

205 PM Sun Sep 27...A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 28N69W. A surface trough extends from 30N70W to the low to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N
between 64W-69W.

805 PM Sun Sep 27...A 1014 mb surface low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N70W. A surface trough extends from 30N72W to the low to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N between 64W-69W.

The eastern Caribbean T-Wave...

805 AM Sat Sep 26...An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 13N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 57W and 61W.

205 PM Sat Sep 26...An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-11N. An enhancement of showers and tstorms is possible tonight into Sun near Trinidad and the SE Caribbean.

805 PM Sat Sep 26...A tropical wave is along 60W S of 15N, moving W at 15 kt. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection over northern Guyana and eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to affect the Windward Islands tonight into Sun.

205 AM Sun Sep 27...A tropical wave is along 61W S of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to affect the Windward Islands tonight into Sun.

805 AM Sun Sep 27...A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of east of the wave axis.

205 PM Sun Sep 27...An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 62/63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 08N-16.5N, and is currently affecting the Windward Islands. Convection over the northern Leeward Islands north of 16.5N is related to a nearby upper-level trough.

805 PM Sun Sep 27...An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 300 nm east of the wave axis from the Anegada Passage at 17.5N to inland portions of Venezuela, an gradually weakening across the Lesser Antilles.

I realize this may be confusing, but you'll want to keep the discussion in this thread apart from the eastern Caribbean tropical wave, since that (along with a mid week cold front pushing through Florida and the GOMEX) is going to be the focus for potential cyclogenesis over the NW Caribbrean later this week. If you wish to discuss what's going on in the Caribbean, then you'll want to post about that in the other thread.

[StAuggy]

This thread has morphed into a discussion of two different features. The area of convection mentioned in the original post developed near an old decayed frontal boundary, an interaction with an upper level trough. The last post mentions the passage of a tropical wave axis which moved into the area, but was well to the east when this thread was started. I've included the pertinent parts of this weekend's TWDs from TAFB to show the difference between the two features...

The western Atlantic trough...

805 AM Sat Sep 26...A weakening stationary front extends from 32N48W to 25N58W, and a surface trough is evident from satellite and scatterometer data from 27N61W southward to near Puerto Rico. A weak cyclonic circulation associated with the trough is centered near 26N65W.

205 PM Sat Sep 26...A 1017 mb surface low near 25N66W is along a N-S oriented trough from 20N65W to 28N66W. The low shows up well in the latest ASCAT data. Strong E winds are north of the low from 27N-29N between 63.5W-66W. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of low. A small mid to upper-level trough just NE of the Leeward Islands is giving way to an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 19N-23N between 56W-59W. Additional showers and tstorms are seen from 14N-19N between 54W-58W.

805 PM Sat Sep 26...A 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N67W with a trough extending from 28N67W to 21N66W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is associated with the low. The low shows up well in the latest ASCAT data. Strong E winds are north of the low from 27N-29N between 63.5W-66W.

205 AM Sun Sep 27...A surface through extending from 28N69W to 23N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.

805 AM Sun Sep 27...A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 27N69W. A surface trough extends from 29N69W to the low to 25N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough/low.

205 PM Sun Sep 27...A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 28N69W. A surface trough extends from 30N70W to the low to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N
between 64W-69W.

805 PM Sun Sep 27...A 1014 mb surface low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N70W. A surface trough extends from 30N72W to the low to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N between 64W-69W.

The eastern Caribbean T-Wave...

805 AM Sat Sep 26...An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 13N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 57W and 61W.

205 PM Sat Sep 26...An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-11N. An enhancement of showers and tstorms is possible tonight into Sun near Trinidad and the SE Caribbean.

805 PM Sat Sep 26...A tropical wave is along 60W S of 15N, moving W at 15 kt. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection over northern Guyana and eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to affect the Windward Islands tonight into Sun.

205 AM Sun Sep 27...A tropical wave is along 61W S of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to affect the Windward Islands tonight into Sun.

805 AM Sun Sep 27...A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of east of the wave axis.

205 PM Sun Sep 27...An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 62/63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 08N-16.5N, and is currently affecting the Windward Islands. Convection over the northern Leeward Islands north of 16.5N is related to a nearby upper-level trough.

805 PM Sun Sep 27...An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 300 nm east of the wave axis from the Anegada Passage at 17.5N to inland portions of Venezuela, an gradually weakening across the Lesser Antilles.

I realize this may be confusing, but you'll want to keep the discussion in this thread apart from the eastern Caribbean tropical wave, since that (along with a mid week cold front pushing through Florida and the GOMEX) is going to be the focus for potential cyclogenesis over the NW Caribbrean later this week. If you wish to discuss what's going on in the Caribbean, then you'll want to post about that in the other thread.

Thank you very much for posting the detailed breakdown of the setup in that area. I will do my best to avoid cross posting about different features going forward on the forum.