Possible subtropical system in the South Atlantic

[TheAustinMan]

A low-pressure system, with 35-40 kt winds in its southwestern quadrant, has been showing some signs of organization over the moving off the Brazilian coast early yesterday morning. Sea surface temperatures in this area are around 24C-26C. Per global model guidance, it is expected to track south before curving towards the east-northeast; the presence of unfavorable conditions suggest dissipation before the weekend. Should the Brazilian Centro de Hidografia da Marinha initiate warnings on this system, they would be available at https://www.marinha.mil.br/chm/dados-do-smm/warnings-and-forecasts/warnings. Currently, only coastal gale warnings are in effect.

2.4 MB. Source: SSEC RealEarth.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It possibly became a subtropical storm yesterday and although the convection limited, it sustain itself nicely on the southern side of the circulation. The cyclone also strenghtened since yesterday, the 1227 UTC ASCAT measured only 30-35 kts winds but the latest pass at 0001 UTC showed 45 kts. Based on the wind field and the structure (convection close to the center) I don't rouled out that it stand closer to the tropical rather than the subropical status at the moment.
Pretty surprisingly that the Brazilians didn't classified it, especially as they classified much more disorganized systems in the past.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I made a video summary from the cyclone with satellite animations and ASCAT measurements:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Uz5PZN4V6u8[/youtube]