Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)

[cycloneye]

Post away for this wave that will bring a good deal of rain to some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean. Will it be more than rain? We will find out.

[Aric Dunn]

Current satellite loop of wave east of Caribbean with some model support for development:
https://i.ibb.co/s5F0JFL/60179453-1.gif

Currently it's under about 25kts of shear with dry subsidence in the vicinity. Low-level clouds are moving from NE to NW in loop above, so not much going on at the surface currently. It should track NW towards the Bahamas, where better conditions are modeled.

06z GFS shows an increase in vorticity in 96 hours, but a forecast of ~30-40 knots of shear keeps it in check. Shear forecasts past 72 hours aren't the best at verifying, so definitely something to keep an eye on:
https://i.imgur.com/W3PkJap.png

The NE part of the wave might be developing a circ. some strong inflow from the S into that cluster with some inflow from the north and NE as well. definitely needs to be watched. especially with the shear axis forecast to shift west with it.

Maybe a thread for this wave should be made now that there is some model support for it,

FYI the 12z GFS brings this wave into the eastern gulf and tries to start to develop it.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS:

The weather pattern begins to change by Monday as the moisture
content associated with an active tropical wave, currently near 50W
longitude, gradually increases. Latest model guidance has trended a
little slower with the arrival of the tropical wave that now the low
to mid-level moisture content does not begin to increase
significantly until later Monday afternoon and evening. As a result,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
gradually increase in coverage across the regional waters and affect
portions of the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the USVI during this
time frame. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across
western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours as a result of
strong daytime heating and local effects.

Abundant moisture behind the tropical wave with precipitable
water content ranging from 2.00-2.40 inches across the region
will linger on Tuesday. Southeast steering wind flow will keep
showers and isolated thunderstorms streaming from the Caribbean
waters into the U.S. Virgin Islands and east/southeast sections
of Puerto Rio. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across much of PR through the day.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear axis is moving west ahead of the wave. so as long as the wave does not speed up it will stay in a marginal shear environment giving it a chance to organize.

[Aric Dunn]

Wave axis is Tilting and vorticity is increasing large moisture envelop. has a decent shot to develop most likely once it gets north of PR.

[AnnularCane]

Beautiful wave...looks good in pink! But I am wondering how attached we should get to this one.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has it.

[Aric Dunn]

Beautiful wave...looks good in pink! But I am wondering how attached we should get to this one.

12z Euro 21 hours..

[Aric Dunn]

Euro finally develops it while recurving .

[Hurricaneman]

Depending on where the trough is next week the Carolinas to Bermuda may need to keep an eye on this feature

[crownweather]

Last night's UKMET, today's Canadian and ICON models develop it. Only one that does not right now is the GFS model, although the GEFS model does hint at development.

[cycloneye]

Dang.

[CyclonicFury]

Development chances are near zero. East Caribbean is too hostile at present. Might develop in the East Pacific late next week.

East Pacific? I don't see any model taking the vorticity signature of this wave to the EPAC. Instead, it seems like they take it to the SW Atlantic in a week or so.

[Hurricaneman]

Development chances are near zero. East Caribbean is too hostile at present. Might develop in the East Pacific late next week.

East Pacific? I don't see any model taking the vorticity signature of this wave to the EPAC. Instead, it seems like they take it to the SW Atlantic in a week or so.

What I’m personally seeing is that the northern part of the wave possibly becomes a tropical cyclone off the east coast where things are favorable while the southern part develops in the EPAC from what I’m seeing in the models

[gatorcane]

GEM ensembles are quite bullish on development between the US and Bermuda on the recurve. Note models have overdone troughiness over the US this summer:

[NotSparta]

Development chances are near zero. East Caribbean is too hostile at present. Might develop in the East Pacific late next week.

It's going way too far north to reach the Pacific

[SFLcane]

Lol.. development chances near zero as wxman57 stated.

[CyclonicFury]

Lol.. development chances near zero as wxman57 stated.

For right now, yes. This won't develop in the Caribbean.

However, some energy will break away and move northward, and could develop near the Bahamas in a week or so when it may encounter more favorable conditions. This idea is supported by the 12z ECMWF, EPS, ICON, CMC, NAVGEM and JMA models.

[ava_ati]

GEM ensembles are quite bullish on development between the US and Bermuda on the recurve. Note models have overdone troughiness over the US this summer:

Considering a cold front made it all the way to central FL in July of all months, I can't imagine how the models are OVERDOING the troughs.

[CyclonicFury]

Lol.. development chances near zero as wxman57 stated.

For right now, yes. This won't develop in the Caribbean.

However, some energy will break away and move northward, and could develop near the Bahamas in a week or so when it may encounter more favorable conditions. This idea is supported by the 12z ECMWF, EPS, ICON, CMC, NAVGEM and JMA models.

other td3? the way happen to td3

It could be like TD Three, but it could also be stronger or not form at all. You can't definitively say this far out.