Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (along 46W)

[colbroe]

Of interest is the tropical wave just of the African coast with a 1012 MB low which has now been added .We will watch and see if this develops .

[CyclonicFury]

There's still a lot of SAL out there, and this one has no model support. I'd place development chances over the next 5 days at about 1%. Maybe in a few weeks it'll be a different story.

[MacTavish]

Looks like a few 0z GEPS ensemble members want to do something with it closer to the islands

[jconsor]

Looks like a few 0z GEPS ensemble members want to do something with it closer to the islands

Will be an interesting test for the GEPS to see how much use it has. Anyone know if the GEPS was upgraded like the GEM was to reduce false TC development bias?

[MacTavish]

Will be an interesting test for the GEPS to see how much use it has. Anyone know if the GEPS was upgraded like the GEM was to reduce false TC development bias?

Good question, I cant find any information on that.

[GCANE]

Earth Nullschool analysis has it nearly closed off at 11.26N 37.38W
Strong Convection Firing Off
Strong Developing 850mb vort

[GCANE]

Nothing in terms of development per the models - yet

[Nimbus]

First several waves usually clear out the SAL but are pretty dry by the time they reach -50W.
In past years many of those were deemed invest worthy.

[abajan]

Incidentally, where's the 2 AM TWO? The latest I'm seeing at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php is that for 8 PM.

[USTropics]

Incidentally, where's the 2 AM TWO? The latest I'm seeing at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php is that for 8 PM.

Looks like they didn't update the outlook text link, the main link on the front page is updated though - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/260502_MIATWOAT.shtml

[SFLcane]

Yeah CCKW is in the area.

[jconsor]

This wave is unlikely to develop but will likely be strong enough to help clear the SAL out for the following wave which moves off the African coast early next week.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1154731183319724033

[floridasun78]

one by 40 w look good on sat this afternoon

[abajan]

Wow. The MDR east of the Antilles is really firing up tonight!
Looks like rotation taking place near 13N 37W too:

[floridasun78]

Wow. The MDR east of the Antilles is really firing up tonight!
Looks like rotation taking place near 13N 37W too:

https://i.imgur.com/s0QC8ZT.gif

shear waiting by islands look at shear map and you see cloud blowing from sw to ne over islands

[floridasun78]

[bamajammer4eva]

00z Euro model keeps wave near Africa weak but definitely there and ends up near PR with minimal development. Things are changing though and prime time is coming soon

[colbroe]

The low pressure 1015 mb has been added to the wave once again.

[GCANE]

Convection currently firing around 13N 40W looks interesting.

Moderate CAPE.
Nice defined 850mb vort on CIMSS
Low shear
Weak surface low on Earth Nullschool

SAL seems to be clearing out in the MDR below 15N
Air particulates are relatively low in this area

No model support at this time
However, Euro has a LL vort developing in this area in 4 days and currently tracking into the Bahamas