ECMWF Upgrade to Version 43r3 on July 11th

[wxman57]

The next version of the ECMWF will be active on July 11th with the 12Z run. Here's a link to info on what's included in the upgrade:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

And here's a link to how the upgrade may affect its performance with tropical cyclones. Looks like some good, some bad, to me:

http://wxman57.com/images/TCPerformance_43r3_43r1.pdf

[LarryWx]

The next version of the ECMWF will be active on July 11th with the 12Z run. Here's a link to info on what's included in the upgrade:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

And here's a link to how the upgrade may affect its performance with tropical cyclones. Looks like some good, some bad, to me:

http://wxman57.com/images/TCPerformance_43r3_43r1.pdf

From the first link:

"Tropical cyclone intensity (as measured by central pressure) is slightly reduced from day 2 onwards: for lead times beyond four days this has a beneficial effect since it reduces the existing negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure in such forecasts. You can find statistics on the Cycle 43r3 tropical cyclones forecast performance in TCPerformance_43r3_43r1.pdf."

I think this is good because I've found the Euro to have often been too strong with TCs once the model develops them since 2010 (remember the 2010 Fiona fiasco?), especially north of 25N in the Atlantic basin, which started soon after an increase in resolution.