Northern Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

[Steve]

I saw the thread in active for the B storm in the Pacific. It looks like there are two surges, one heading up now partially influenced by outflow, and then the mid or upper remnants which may fire off in the Gulf late weekend or early next week with some models tightening for a while on the way to Florida. We're about to get the first surge in the city. It looks like a spring time warm front or even a sea breeze, but those don't happen at 4:00 in the afternoon here. Notice also how the storms while progressing north are sort of rotating west. It's either the boundary of two air masses or a legit band from a non-formed system.

Radar:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Hurricane Visible Loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[Nimbus]

Is that area of moisture coming in over southern Mexico going to continue nne into the gulf?

[Steve]

Is that area of moisture coming in over southern Mexico going to continue nne into the gulf?

Several models are bringing mid and upper energy and consolidating into a closed low of varying degrees up to maybe a TS hit between Tampa and Sarasota. Who knows in early June?

[NDG]

12z Euro has a closed low pressure forming over the extreme BOC as early as tomorrow night, strengthen some on Saturday-Sunday before it shows it weakening due to the stronger shear over the middle of the GOM.

[tropicwatch]

From the 8:02pm EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

Expect a surface low to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

Sorry, didn't see this thread before posting in the Global Model Thread.

[Steve]

WV shows potential drought relief for the FL peninsula. 12z QPF wasn't all that impressive showing the heaviest accumulation concentrations offshore. Of course the 5+ Day GFS has been pretty dismal anyway lately, and i would expect the rainfall amounts to go way up over the next few days as the model faces reality.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[NDG]

And just like that last night's Euro dropped its earlier forecasts of development in the GOM, lol.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/870605310586695680




"Calibrated ECMWF giving a 30% chance for a disturbance to briefly spin up o/the GoMexico during the next 3 days. Shear is going to be a prob"

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that last night's Euro dropped its earlier forecasts of development in the GOM, lol.

It seems we can't trust any global model beyond a couple of days so far this year.

[NDG]

And just like that last night's Euro dropped its earlier forecasts of development in the GOM, lol.

It seems we can't trust any global model beyond a couple of days so far this year.

Yeah, good thing the Euro has an upgrade coming up, if I am not mistaken, because it has also been all over the place with very little consistency from run to run.

[johngaltfla]

This is a tough month for the models to grasp usually before any closed low forms. Local mets are expecting a low chance of a TD developing but soaking rains Wednesday and Thursday in West Central and Central Florida. We need the drought relief, that's for sure.

[NDG]

Development or no development this is great news for sure here in central and southern FL with the deep tropical moisture being pulled into our area.

[TheStormExpert]

Most definitely happy about the potential of receiving possibly around 5" of rain.

My concern is I hope this comes and goes by June 7th cause I'm headed to the Bahamas for about a week. What's your guys thoughts on what the weather might be there in the Abacos?

[Steve]

Most definitely happy about the potential of receiving possibly around 5" of rain.

My concern is I hope this comes and goes by June 7th cause I'm headed to the Bahamas for about a week. What's your guys thoughts on what the weather might be there in the Abacos?

It's not very far, so over the next 5-7 days for sure. Have fun by the way, and use some sunscreen if you get sunny days.
---------------------------
As guessed at yesterday, the GFS is more coming into line as shown with the results reflected in the 00z QPF. I don't know that anything is going to consolidate, but at least a few waves and surges of moisture should come out of this and cross the peninsula. Hopefully this won't be a lot of cloud cover and will actually include precipitation. Current prog from 00z (8pm last night EDT), upward of 7" in South FL, 3-5" upward through the central Peninsula. I figured it would catch up, but now it's about the details and specific, localized amounts that do fall between now and the end of next week.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1496410230

Also, it appears that rainfall will start today in some areas:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... t_loop.php

[TheStormExpert]

Most definitely happy about the potential of receiving possibly around 5" of rain.

My concern is I hope this comes and goes by June 7th cause I'm headed to the Bahamas for about a week. What's your guys thoughts on what the weather might be there in the Abacos?

It's not very far, so over the next 5-7 days for sure. Have fun by the way, and use some sunscreen if you get sunny days.
---------------------------
As guessed at yesterday, the GFS is more coming into line as shown with the results reflected in the 00z QPF. I don't know that anything is going to consolidate, but at least a few waves and surges of moisture should come out of this and cross the peninsula. Hopefully this won't be a lot of cloud cover and will actually include precipitation. Current prog from 00z (8pm last night EDT), upward of 7" in South FL, 3-5" upward through the central Peninsula. I figured it would catch up, but now it's about the details and specific, localized amounts that do fall between now and the end of next week.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1496410230

Also, it appears that rainfall will start today in some areas:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... t_loop.php

Thanks! Hopefully I can get more sunny days than not. Been keeping close tabs with the GFS to see what it shows in terms of rain and cloud over is concerned and it looks like by next weekend around June 10th this mess may finally lift out and allow for a few full fledged sunny days where I'm headed.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear wins this round! We'll try again within the next few weeks.

While the low should
dissipate over land tonight, the remnants of Beatriz are expected to
move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, where current indications are that strong upper-level winds
should prevent re-development.

[Nimbus]

If the shear forecast holds there should be lots of moisture pulled up over north Florida and Georgia from the surface low. Wonder if this area makes it to active storms as an invest?

[lrak]

From the 8:02pm EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

Expect a surface low to form over the Bay of Campeche Saturday, then move NW towards
southern Texas Sunday.

Sorry, didn't see this thread before posting in the Global Model Thread.

The model thread shows this going to Florida, why did they say it would move towards S. Tex?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like what low is left from Beatriz is starting to enter the BOC near Alvarado Mexico.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-92&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10

[TheStormExpert]

If the shear forecast holds there should be lots of moisture pulled up over north Florida and Georgia from the surface low. Wonder if this area makes it to active storms as an invest?

I could see the possibility of it getting a yellow circle by the NHC but likely nothing more.