Best analogs for Hermine?

[Hurricanehink]

Hermine hasn't taken the most unusual track so far, but the hook back to the northwest later (as forecast) is unusual. If Hermine takes the path, here are some analogs I found.


Hurricane Sandy has often been compared to Hermine, but there are some major differences. Sandy started losing tropical characteristics after reaching the Bahamas, but it redeveloped convection near the center, and was still tropical after the hook northwest.


(edit: added later) The Perfect Storm/Halloween storm of 1991 was an extratropical storm that brought high waves to much of the eastern United States, resulting in widespread disaster declarations and beach replenishment projects. The storm moved over the Gulf Stream while looping and transitioned into a hurricane, but unlike Hermine it went to the northeast (and was later in the year).


Shows a worst-case scenario if a storm comes from Florida and curves back to the northwest. Agnes tapped into that moisture and caused severe damage in Pennsylvania and New York.


A hurricane strike on Florida, check. Weakening and moving NE into Georgia, check. Curving back to the northwest, check.


It struck Florida a little more to the west, but it hugged the Atlantic coast up to North Carolina. It re-intensified into a hurricane and hooked slightly leftward, hitting New England.

[Hurricaneman]

Alma 1966 seems to be the best analog based on track, but Alma happened in June not late August

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[Hammy]

The interesting thing with Alma as an analog (even if it was in June) is that it was also the last system to hit the Big Bend area.

[Steve]

No real analogs for the system though. Posted the 538 article in the Hermine Post thread, but here you go. It's a unique animal for our era.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we- ... e-hermine/

[terstorm1012]

1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter?

[bob rulz]

The interesting thing with Alma as an analog (even if it was in June) is that it was also the last system to hit the Big Bend area.

The last hurricane I believe - or at least the last one stronger than Hermine - but several tropical storms have hit in that time period.

[chaser1]

Best analog for Hermine??

That oblivious family relative who 2 hours after dessert & coffee was cleaned up keeps on talking & just won't leave - in spite of the fact that everyone else went home hours ago!

[CrazyC83]

The interesting thing with Alma as an analog (even if it was in June) is that it was also the last system to hit the Big Bend area.

This seemed to behave more like a June storm than a September storm though.

[CrazyC83]

The interesting thing with Alma as an analog (even if it was in June) is that it was also the last system to hit the Big Bend area.

The last hurricane I believe - or at least the last one stronger than Hermine - but several tropical storms have hit in that time period.

I believe that, before Hermine, Kate was the last hurricane to hit the Big Bend in 1985.