When will we see our 1st(Real) Hurricane of the Season?

[TheStormExpert]

I know there was already Hurricane Alex way back in Mid-January way up in the NE Atlantic near the Azores.

But in my opinion that does not count as a the 2016 seasons first real hurricane since it happened months before the season officially began.

So when and where do you expect the first(real) hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season to form?

I'm going to go out on a limb and go with the Gulf of Mexico sometime in the second half of July.

[tarheelprogrammer]

G.O.M around July 4th.

[thundercam96]

G.O.M around July 4th.

Do you think that the storm the GFS is portraying is at hurricane strength?

[TheStormExpert]

G.O.M around July 4th.

Do you think that the storm the GFS is portraying is at hurricane strength?

Strong Tropical Storm, maybe minimal hurricane.

But I would not look at strength this far out, or even landfall location for that matter.

[weathaguyry]

I would say that our first "real" hurricane will form at the end of July, maybe early August on a tropical wave around the Leeward Islands

[psyclone]

I would say August. July is typically dead in the tropics. the frequency of tropical cyclones starts going up fast at the beginning of August but even then it's from a rather low baseline. So i'd go for after the 10th. no clue on where.

[gigabite]

I am going with August, too. This season in pairing up closely with a 1978 analog. Back then it was Tropical Storm 6, Hurricane-1 CORA, 7-12 AUG 1978 wind 80 knots, 980 millibars, Category 1, initiation point was 13 North Latitude, 35 West Longitude.

ref. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[gigabite]

G.O.M around July 4th.

Do you think that the storm the GFS is portraying is at hurricane strength?

Strong Tropical Storm, maybe minimal hurricane.

But I would not look at strength this far out, or even landfall location for that matter.

[N 18.34, E 4.08] this is the New Moon, lunar sub-point for July 2016. It is in the middle of the desert. I'm thinking global water vapor about 10% below average at aphelion.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'll go with the gulf storm that the GFS is showing in the 1st week of July.

[Kingarabian]

Not sure that system in the gulf that the GFS is showing will be a hurricane. GFS showing a lot of shear in that time frame.

[hcane27]

August 22nd , north of Puerto Rico

[FireRat]

I'd go with the days around July 25 - July 28, and this might be the 7th or 8th named storm at the rate we're going thus far.

[Hammy]

I'd go with the days around July 25 - July 28, and this might be the 7th or 8th named storm at the rate we're going thus far.

MDR, between July 20-Aug 10.

[1900hurricane]

I don't have any basis for this but I'm feeling within a few days of August 10th.

[floridasun78]

i say first week of aug right now thing don't look right tropical system that why i enjoying beach here in Miami

[tarheelprogrammer]

I say July 18-July 27. Will reach cat 3.

[CrazyC83]

Sometimes it takes a lot of waiting even in busy years. Since 1995, the only hurricanes that were clearly of tropical origin before August 1 I know of are: Bertha and Cesar (1996), Claudette (2003), Cindy, Dennis and Emily (2005), Bertha and Dolly (2008) and Alex (2010). It seems they come in groups in a few seasons.

[rolltide]

I say the first "real" hurricane will form close to August 29th

[KimmieLa]

August 22nd! East of the southern tip of Florida and heading to the Gulf.