Wave inside Africa

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cycloneye
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Wave inside Africa

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:53 pm

Will this one turn into something more than a wave or will be more of the same when the past waves have fizzled as they hit the water.One thing going in favor is climo as is almost mid August but down the road is the question on how it encounter dry air/shear.Some models are hinting at it having some development.Time will tell.

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#2 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:15 pm

Some model runs for this wave. UKMET/GFS/NAVGEM show some possible development:

UKMET (day 5):
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GFS (day 6):
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GFS Ensembles (day 6)
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NAVGEM (U.S. NAVY) (day 6):
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:20 am

A floater has been moved over this area on rammb site. Model support has increased some overnight with the Navy model quite bullish sending the system more west.
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Re: Strong Wave inside Africa

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:05 am

Good circulation with it.Still 2 days from hitting the water and by then we will see how it does.

http://www.sat24.com/en/wa?ir=true
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:29 am

Cycloneye, I am guessing in about 24-36 hours it will hit the water. The UKMET continues to show development, 00Z run below. It also seems like this wave is going to move quite quickly west due to strong ridging to the north. The fast forward speed may inhibit development.

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#6 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:50 am

not too worried about this one either. Not with conditions as hostile as they currently are
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Re: Strong Wave inside Africa

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 14, 2015 8:54 am

Is now Pouch P22L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015/P22L.html
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Re: Strong Wave inside Africa

#8 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:34 am

Interesting. In 2005 this would have been a potential cat 5, especially with the lead off wave about to exit to pave the way. Not this year. It will be interesting to see if the lead off wave will moisten the MDR enough to give it a chance. I doubt it.
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Re: Strong Wave inside Africa

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 14, 2015 11:24 am

I think what GFS has as weak low is wave in front of this one so if anyone wants to make a thread about wave emerging West Africa go ahead.
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#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:02 pm

@RyanMaue: Decent chance of weak tropical development way out by Cape Verde Islands next week b4 system goes thru the shredder http://t.co/eJdUfXqspY

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#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:16 pm

I think you meant to post this here right? This thread below discusses the wave moving off Africa right now that I think Ryan is referring to. This current thread is for another large wave further east than this wave.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117432&hilit=
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