JB not the only one.

[OuterBanker]

I know that Accuweather spawned JB, but they are now independent of his opinions. Just found this interesting. How about some pros chiming in on its validity.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 4218#link5

[chaser1]

Well, I didn't necessarily pull any direct Atlantic hurricane season prediction from that article, but there certainly does seem to be a potential impact that I could see based on the suggested weather patterns the article made reference to. The article regarding El Nino, the far West heat & fires, and suggested weather patterns made no direct correlation to our Atlantic hurricane season other than September could pose increased risk to the Southeast U.S. By itself, the article and statement about our hurricane season seemed hardly anymore specific than basic Climatology (that September posed a greater risk to the U.S.)

That said.... and assuming a continuance of a weak El Nino along with a "split westerly flow" as suggested....., well THAT would perhaps suggest a significant mid/upper level ridge over the Western U.S. & Canada. In turn, this might suggest a long wave trough pattern somewhere over the Midwest (or at least west of the Atlantic seaboard). That in turn might suggest that Western Atlantic mid level ridging might be stronger along our U.S. coastline - ultimately causing increased likelihood of tropical systems approaching from the Southeast, to be trapped from recurving out to sea and possibly more likely to impact the U.S.

Each year, everything comes down to steering. Nothing here is every permanent, but patterns caused by particularly dominant area's of high pressure (or deep troughs) do occur. Some years these steering features are less dominant while on occasion these features might be more dominant and cause a much more "stuck pattern" for large areas of the U.S. (or elsewhere). That article suggests that a large part of the Western U.S. is the "frying pan" and claims that the 90 day long range outlook suggests that this region will likely remain warmer than normal. Other factors weigh in such as when, how far south, and how fast the Upper level westerlies impact the rest of the U.S., where the mid-level steering W. Atlantic high pressure ridging is centered & how strong or weak it is, and how progressive or stagnant are new cold fronts (troughs) entering & exiting the U.S. from Canada. So ultimately there's no guarantee, but this pattern would probably suggest an inverse effect for the Eastern U.S. & maybe suggest while hotter in the west, perhaps cooler in the east. Also, that fall cold front might mean a clash of air masses, severe storms, and potential of tornado's anywhere from the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, possibly south to the N. Gulf Coast. This might suggest that a fairly strong Easterly (or Southeasterly flow) over the S.E. U.S. might steer potential tropical systems generally towards us, rather than allowing them to be pulled north & out to sea before reaching the U.S.