Tropical wave in the gulf?

[HeeBGBz]

Our local wx guy said there was a wave in the western gulf and it had a 10% invest. I missd the first part of the tropic report. Is there something brewing there?

[wxman57]

Nothing in the Gulf of Mexico. Your "local wx guy" probably said "western Atlantic" (off the East U.S. Coast). It's not a tropical wave, it's just a weak surface trough with a few thunderstorms that's moving off to the east and out to sea. NHC gave it a 10% chance of development.

We already have a thread on this disturbance:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116465&hilit=

[underthwx]

Lots of clouds out there

[HURRICANELONNY]

What about the wave heading to Florida on wendsday. Looking robust but no development expected.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[underthwx]

Goid question

[NDG]

What about the wave heading to Florida on wendsday. Looking robust but no development expected.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Yeap, no development expected for that tropical wave near the Bahamas tonight, most of the moisture is being pulled northward by the trough before reaching FL.

[USTropics]

What about the wave heading to Florida on wendsday. Looking robust but no development expected.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The wave axis is actually in the western Caribbean and extends from about 20N 83W to 10N 83W and is moving west at 20 kt (should be inland over Nicaragua in the next 12 hours. See surface analysis below). The enhanced convection you're seeing over the Bahamas is in association with an ULL centered around 25N 71W and the trough NDG mentioned extending over Florida.. You should see continued convection over the next 24 hours before a noticeable SAL signal moves into the area and suppresses convection (see SAL image below).


Atlantic surface analysis.



Saharan Air Layer Tracking shows a plume on the far left hand side entering the NW Caribbean.

[HeeBGBz]

Thanks ya'll. I must have missed what area he was talking about.

[underthwx]

plenty of clouds out there in the gulf.

[underthwx]

What's the area of clouds down towards south texas?

[underthwx]

Gulf looks interesting

[Portastorm]

From this afternoon's tropical discussion ... nothing to get worked up about:

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FAIRLY SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS AIDING A STRONG TSTMS FROM THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 21N. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N86W...MOVING SLOWLY W.

[tropicwatch]

Not very conducive for development.

[underthwx]

From this afternoon's tropical discussion ... nothing to get worked up about:

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FAIRLY SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS AIDING A STRONG TSTMS FROM THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 21N. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N86W...MOVING SLOWLY W.

Hey port...long time no see...thanks for your reply...I thought by the looks of the satellite that something may be cooking out there

[Sanibel]

At this time of year if that Florida convection continues to linger it will root into a Low.

[Nimbus]

At this time of year if that Florida convection continues to linger it will root into a Low.

If the tail end of that front were a little further south down into the gulf that would be true. This time of year the fronts usually stay a little further north but those that do drop down over the gulf have a small chance of cutting off and developing, maybe even 10%.

Nothing from the NHC so if the front goes stationary it will probably be Tallahassee or further north.

[Sanibel]

Poof. I think true July conditions may have set up.

[Nimbus]

The latest trough made it down into the gulf off the coast of Texas. Probably linked to the Canadian air mass that pushed down deep into the mid west.

[Hurricaneman]

The latest trough made it down into the gulf off the coast of Texas. Probably linked to the Canadian air mass that pushed down deep into the mid west.

I feel this area in the next week or so may need to be monitored for a surprise development from a frontal wave of some kind but shear would need to come down to allow development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

A new thread will have to be made if something new appears as this area is not there anymore.