2012-13 SHEM season

[Yellow Evan]

I know there is less interest here, but what are you all expectations for the basins on the other side of the globe? Based on the trends noticed the past few years, it's the AUS's turn to have a above average year.

[HurricaneBill]

I know there is less interest here, but what are you all expectations for the basins on the other side of the globe? Based on the trends noticed the past few years, it's the AUS's turn to have a above average year.

El Nino usually increases the risk of strong cyclones in the SPAC and also the risk of a powerful cyclone making landfall on western Australia.

I don't know what influence El Nino has on the SIO basin.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks life our first TD of the SWIO is here. Let the games begin.

[Laplacian]

Folks,

You can look at the climatology of tropical cyclones around Australia in the Pacific and Indian Oceans here (it's interactive):

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_a ... /index.jsp

I believe the averages are computed based on 36 years of data.

One of the previous posts is correct...ENSO impacts frequency of tropical cyclones in these basins. Currently, we're in ENSO-neutral / weak El Nino. we'll likely stay like this during NH's winter, although El Nino conditions might strengthen.

Either way, the link I provided above will get you in the ballpark with regard to a forecast based on climatology. Hope this helps.

[Yellow Evan]

Season has officially started now

[AussieMark]

Average/Below Average is what has been forecast for this season

Odds favour a near average cyclone season for most Australians

Average to slightly below average tropical cyclone activity is favoured for the Australian region.
Climate indicators affecting tropical cyclone activity show that:
the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
near-El Niño conditions have been present in 2012 and have been considered in this outlook.

The typical Australian tropical cyclone season:

runs between 1 November and 30 April;
averages around 11 tropical cyclones;
will have some tropical cyclones that cross the coast.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml

[AussieMark]

Tropical Cyclone seasonal outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued: Monday, 15 October 2012
Tropical cyclone outlook released, communities urged to prepare early

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today, reminding communities in Australia's northern coastal regions to prepare now for the coming wet season.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said advances in the science of climate prediction allow us to accurately gauge the likelihood of above or below average tropical cyclone activity, and better inform severe weather planning.

"The overall outlook is for a return to near average, or slightly below average, tropical cyclone activity, but this does not mean we can afford to be complacent about the risks," said Dr Watkins.

"The tropical cyclone outlook uses key climate indicators to look at what the coming season may bring. Currently the climate is in neutral territory, meaning neither La Niña or El Niño conditions are present. Typically La Niña events are associated with more tropical cyclone activity, and El Niño with less," said Dr Watkins.

Queensland Regional Director, Rob Webb, said that with the cyclone season rapidly approaching, taking a few simple steps to prepare now can make a world of difference.

"The average number of cyclones sits around four in the Queensland region and although they don't all cross the coast, even the risk of a single cyclone or flood makes the preparation worthwhile," said Mr Webb.

"When it comes to flooding, Queensland has seen widespread activity in recent years, and while we don't expect the same extent of flooding this year, we can expect typical periodic flooding in parts of the state.

"Summer is a great time of year and we all look forward to it. Tropical cyclones and floods are part of the climate that comes with the warm, tropical Queensland weather. Enjoy the sunshine, but stay tuned for what the weather might bring, particularly when you're on holidays and in unfamiliar territory," said Mr Webb.

Emergency Management Queensland Assistant Director-General Bruce Grady said the release of the tropical cyclone outlook was a prime time for Queenslanders to ensure they were prepared.

"When disaster strikes, communities can be isolated, power can be cut and damaged roads and debris can prevent emergency services from reaching you. It is vital people ensure their emergency plans and emergency kits are up to date, their homes are prepared and they know how they can seek valuable information if required," said Mr Grady.

The Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Queensland operates out of the Brisbane Regional Office. Here specialist forecasters work around the clock with our emergency services partners to keep you informed.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/ ... /qld.shtml

[AussieMark]

Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook

15 October 2012
Northwest communities urged to prepare now for the wet season

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today. Today also marks the first day in the Bureau and FESA's tour of Western Australia's northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness, and preparation initiatives for the coming wet season.

Bureau of Meteorology Manager for Severe Weather Services in WA, Andrew Burton, said with the wet season rapidly approaching, it is important that residents start preparations immediately.

"Every season brings the risk of wind damage, flooding and isolation and there is simply no room for complacency. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia."

"At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. We expect around two coastal impacts and one of those is likely to be severe, but everyone in the northwest needs to be prepared from the start of the season on 1 November," said Mr Burton.

"Climate models are indicating that we are likely to have a near-average number of tropical cyclones this season," explained Mr Burton. However he cautioned that the number of tropical cyclones is not a good indication of the threat to communities.

"For most people a bad season is one when their community cops a direct hit or suffers a major flood, regardless of the total number of cyclones" he said.
Summary of the tropical cyclone seasonal outlook for Western Australia:

A 42% chance of an above average number (58% chance of a below average number) of tropical cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is five).
Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/ ... l/wa.shtml

[AussieMark]

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

Issued: 15 October 2012
Northern Territory tropical cyclone outlook released, communities urged to start preparations

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today, reminding Territory residents to prepare now for the coming cyclone season.

Northern Territory Acting Regional Director, Todd Smith, said that on average we see two to three cyclones form in waters around the Northern Territory each year, and the majority tend to impact coastal areas in some way.

"Due to key oceanic and atmospheric indicators being close to normal for this time of the year, early signals suggest we can expect a near-average tropical cyclone season", said Mr. Smith.

"The Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre will be in full swing well before a cyclone is named, and we'll be providing the most accurate, up-to-date warning information possible", said Mr. Smith, "however it is up to Territorians to understand the weather threats in your area, know where to go for the latest warnings, and act on the advice from the Northern Territory Emergency Service."

Northern Territory Emergency Service Acting Director, Troy Crilly, said regardless of whether we end up with more or less tropical cyclones this year; it's the cyclone season, and it's time to prepare now.

"Residents across the Top End and island communities need to make the most of the remainder of October to clean up their yards, refresh their emergency kit and consider what they will do if and when a cyclone watch or warning is declared. It is essential that people in cyclone prone areas plan ahead and decide whether they will evacuate to safer ground, or what their options are to shelter from dangerous weather conditions," said Mr. Crilly.

The Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre operates out of the Bureau's Northern Territory Regional Office. Here, specialist forecasters will work around the clock with their emergency services partners to keep you informed of any cyclone threat.

The cyclone season extends from 1 November to 30 April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/ ... l/nt.shtml

[AussieMark]

I know there is less interest here, but what are you all expectations for the basins on the other side of the globe? Based on the trends noticed the past few years, it's the AUS's turn to have a above average year.

El Nino usually increases the risk of strong cyclones in the SPAC and also the risk of a powerful cyclone making landfall on western Australia.

I don't know what influence El Nino has on the SIO basin.

El Nino decreases the odds of strong cyclones. Our worst seasons were La Nina seasons