Tropical Wave Pouch P36L in East Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

Off the bat,is not clear if what GFS develops in the Caribbean is a product of this wave or from another feature and that is why I am creating this thread. Let's see as time goes by if things clear up in terms of the models showing the origin of any development that might take place.

To start things with the wave,how about this OSCAT?



2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE
CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N24W AND
ALSO COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 20W-30W IN AN
AREA WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE MOST DEEP CONVECTION
IS S OF 10N ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF shows the wave well at 48 hours.

[Caribwxgirl]

I don't understand the second image. What should I be looking at?

[cycloneye]

I don't understand the second image. What should I be looking at?

The tiny yellow ball to the upper right is what this model identifies as the wave.

[Caribwxgirl]

Thanks

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis adds a low to wave.

[Caribwxgirl]

So is that high to the west of it expected to remain? If so I guess this would go to central Caribbean right?

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N28W TO 9N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A SPOT 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 24W-28W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

[cycloneye]

So is that high to the west of it expected to remain? If so I guess this would go to central Caribbean right?

The models have high pressure to the north of the wave that will cause it to move westward and not go north like what Oscar did.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made at 7:25 PM EDT only caught the front side of wave.

[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N29W
ALONG 13N30W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N29W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 29W-32W.

[Caribwxgirl]

So what are your thoughts on this? How do conditions look ahead of it?

[cycloneye]

So what are your thoughts on this? How do conditions look ahead of it?

According to the models,the wave would not have hostile conditions ahead but is too early to be conclusive on that. I prefer to wait and see how all evolves down the road with this wave. Even the San Juan NWS folks are cautious.

IN THE LONG RANGE...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A WET PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ENCOMPASS THE REGION. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW
IF THIS FORECAST WILL VERIFY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SCENARIO.

[Caribwxgirl]

Ok thanks I know long range it's best to be prepared for anything just wanted your thoughts. Also from the looks of things this seems to be different from what the GFS is predicting on the other thread. Thanks again I value you input and thoughts.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS now in less than 200 hours has a TD/TS in the NE Caribbean. If that verifies,plenty of rain would be the rule for the islands but is still early in the game.It looks like the culprit will be the Tropical Wave as it moves slowly.

168 hours



192 hours

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has a Tropical Storm over Puerto Rico.The loop shows the wave well and starts to develop before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCTROPA ... cloop.html

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion of wave.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N ALONG THE WAVE.
THIS SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SHOWED UP IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, i'm a bit surprised about the San Juan NWS discussion. Anyway, even we're in October any twaves should be monitored carefully. Let's see if the wet pattern could occur even if we're far away from reality for now. Wait and see for sure.

[Gustywind]

How about the SAL ahead and during the possible trip of this twave/low? Could the SAL be an inhibitor factor? Any thoughts about that Cycloneye?Thanks for your input and welcomed comments always well appreciated in this forum.

[cycloneye]

How about the SAL ahead and during the possible trip of this twave/low? Could the SAL be an inhibitor factor? Any thoughts about that Cycloneye?Thanks for your input and welcomed comments always well appreciated in this forum.

Right now,the SAL is almost none where the wave is and ahead of it. There is plenty to the NE of the wave. Let's see how this factor plays a roll down the road.