Upcoming week - October 1-7

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Once again this week relied on how well I did with pesky Nadine. I certainly was accurate in predicting that she would still (unfortunately) be around by the end of this week. I also had the right idea in going with a struggling Nadine early in the week, but strengthening later. However, I thought her winds wouldn't drop below 50 mph, and they did reach 45 at one point on Tuesday. Moreover, Nadine became a hurricane about 24 hours later than expected, on Friday instead of Thursday. Nadine was indeed an erratic mover in terms of track, but I never foresaw the far southward motion that took place in the first half of the week. But when Nadine became a hurricane, she indeed turned northwest as predicted. But finally, the path didn't bend right but actually left during the weekend, and Nadine surprisingly grew stronger and out of my peak range of 75-85 mph, reaching 90 instead.

But nothing else developed this past week either. Overall, I was a little rough in this very annoying little demon named Nadine, but still very much passable. I give myself a B- for this past week.

Will Nadine finally go away? Maybe! Let’s take a look - with some humor I think you will like at the end.

Current situation and models

That last part was not just a teaser. Though Nadine is still a hurricane with winds at a surprising 85 mph for this point, conditions are about to get unfavorable for a storm like this to survive. Not only is this storm looking more ragged with warming cloud tops, but northerly shear will increase and sea surface temperatures are cooling quite a bit. This could cause Nadine to weaken fairly steadily if not quickly before becoming either extratropical or a remnant low by probably Thursday morning. Until then, Nadine continues to dance around near the Azores but not over them, currently performing yet another loop out there. However, Nadine is forecast to pass over the Azores on Wednesday night, but as a rapidly weakening storm, possibly even an extratropical one or weaker tropical system.

The GFS and Euro models show mostly strong upper level shear throughout the rest of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic this upcoming week. Neither model nor any other ones show any disturbances threatening to develop during this time span either.

Recent history

Since 1960, in typical El Nino years, these storms were either already active or developed this upcoming week:

Gloria in 1976
Ernesto in 1982
Earl in 1992
Kyle in 2002
Lili in 2002
Isaac in 2006
Grace in 2009

That is only seven storms this upcoming week, of which four were hurricanes at some point. Only Lili managed to become a major hurricane during the week, and did so in the Gulf of Mexico. Lili was also the only one during this upcoming week in an El Nino year in the satellite era to occur in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, as all the others occurred over the subtropical Atlantic. That said, while weak during this time period, Kyle and Grace were erratic looping storms, much like current Nadine. All of these storms except Kyle also went away during this week; Kyle just decided to keep on being a real pain for hurricane trackers.

So what does this all tell us?

Conditions are going downhill very quickly for tropical cyclone activity. Shear is increasing and water temperatures are cooling. Of course, Nadine isn’t helping her own cause by sitting constantly over her own churned-up waters. However, it is for these reasons that Nadine is probably at long last going to leave the picture for good as a tropical cyclone. Not only that, but at minimum, a lull can likely be expected in the Atlantic for any other tropical cyclone activity of any kind. However, this does not mean the season is over. Remember 1994, which featured two hurricanes in November? It is still way too early to let your guard down on this season.

The prediction

I hope, I hope, I hope. This can’t be a jinx, this absolutely has to be the real thing, regarding Nadine. I predict Nadine will complete hear latest loop on Monday while continuing to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning. Nadine’s weakening trend will continue to be pronounced through Wednesday in response to shearing conditions and cooler waters, reaching 50-60 mph by that night as she nears the Azores. After passing the Azores, the shear will increase and Nadine will become extratropical in the process on Thursday while curving northward. The National Hurricane Center will also say it is about time this storm left, and several Storm2K posters will be screaming, “GOOD RIDDANCE!” at the top of their lungs. Confidence is 75%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Florida1118]

Whats your thoughts on Invest 96L?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 96L snuck up on me during my travels. It now looks like it may just develop into Oscar in a day or two. I expect it would stay pretty weak until it reaches the subtropical latitudes. While conditions may be somewhat conducive for some type of development, they are still overall seeming to go downhill as of late. This system should also not be a threat to any land area.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

I wonder, maybe Nadine will drift south and west and become a CONUS threat, just to make us even more frustrated.

[Andrew92]

And it is time to evaluate.

Nadine is gone! Hey, that’s one accurate thing I nailed this past week, down to the timing of that occurring on Thursday. Nadine’s track to that point, including the timing of it, was also pretty close to accurate, though I had her loop being completed on Monday instead of Tuesday. She did weaken a tad faster than I thought, to 45-50 mph as she reached the Azores late Wednesday to early Thursday, but overall I did well on this last little leg of Nadine’s life, enough to get an A- for it here.

However, I also called for no other tropical storms to occur, and I overlooked Invest 96L which did become Oscar. It wasn’t very strong, and I noted in a subsequent post that I thought it would be weak. Even 50 mph is stronger than I likely would have thought, but I should have been able to see this one coming. So I did pretty bad there, but Oscar also missed land and was short-lived.

Overall, with doing well on Nadine, but not sniffing out Oscar, I give myself a C for this past week.

New week coming up shortly.

-Andrew92