BOC

[Sanibel]

Is a lingering front in BOC showing signs of a twist?

[floridasun78]

area to watch if stay area few days in late sep and oct we see system form of tip old front

[fwbbreeze]

[wxman57]

It's quite common for cyclonic turning to be observed in the BoC in the wake of cold fronts, as the air naturally accelerates down the western side of the BoC and is forced eastward when it reaches southern Mexico. Given proper upper-level winds, this can lead to TC formation given time.

The present situation doesn't look like one of those with much chance of TC development, as upper-level winds of 35-40 kts (at 200mb) out of the west will dip down to the BoC by tomorrow night, resulting in significant wind shear. Pressures in the region are also a bit high (1015-1016mb). I don't think we'll see anything materialize in the BoC over the next 24-48 hrs.

[Ntxw]

I don't think anything spins up in the BOC this go round. How many times have we seen the models try it this season for this area? None have materialized to much of anything except Helene but that was a bit further north and hardly much.

[Sanibel]

Poof. Nothing there.

[Sanibel]

I think there might be something there but it is like some of the last few very weak GOM invests.

[floridasun78]

their spin in boc area put shear is high

[floridasun78]

their spin in boc area put shear is high

The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Sanibel]

This stalled front has been energized by 92L's remnants but is still too weak and sheared.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS develops this somewhat and the Euro makes a tropical storm out of this, this certainly bears watching

[wxman57]

That's a frontal wave the GFS develops along the TX coast on Sunday. It drops the weak wave southward to the BoC next Tue-Wed. Quite strong wind shear across the central and northern Gulf next week (westerly winds aloft 50-90 kts). We do need to continue to watch the BoC and SW Caribbean for potential late-season development, though even that is not looking too likely at this point. I'd give TX to the FL Panhandle the all-clear for 2012 now, but not the southern FL Peninsula yet.

[Sanibel]

That troughiness throughout the Gulf and Caribbean might normally make one look for development but this year it is so weak it isn't worth mentioning.


I'm waiting for someone to call Bones on the season.

[amawea]

I'm waiting for someone to call Bones on the season.

Bones! It's dead Sanibel, it's dead. The season has no pulse that can be found.