Should the Saffir-Simpson Scale Be Abandoned?

[WeatherGuesser]

Reference this post and similar discussions elsewhere, does it do more harm than good?

Does the public place any value on it?

We've seen many times how flooding can be every bit as destructive as winds, especially at the lower Categories. Maybe they should only use three ratings; TS, Hurricane and Major Hurricane with emphasis in the advisories placed equally on flood/surge potential as well as the winds.

There was some discussion earlier about TS names that have been retired, so clearly, wind speed is only a prt of the threat in these storms.

[Zampanò]

I feel that yes, it should. The Saffir-Simpson categories (and much of the news coverage) are focused entirely on the maximum wind speed somewhere in the eyewall. Of course, wind is not the most dangerous element of a tropical cyclone - water is. Lately I've read about a new scale called the Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE rating, which accounts for the overall destructive potential of the wind and storm surge across the entire storm and rates this potential on a continuous scale from 0.1 to 5.9.

While the IKE acronym is a coincidence, Hurricane Ike, "only" a category two at landfall, is probably the best storm in recent memory that so perfectly illustrates why a better rating system is needed.

[Florida1118]

I disagree-the NHC clearly defines the hazards in the Public ADV. The media and people just need to spend more than 2 seconds looking at things, and actually be informed instead of throwing out wind speed as the only factor.

[tolakram]

I have stated this before, I'll say it again.

You have to design a warning system to work for people, and not expect people to learn a warning system. You can talk till you're blue in the face about people needed to pay more attention, but they won't. If you want to save lives you can lament about how people should change their behavior, but you need to have a system that will fit their behavior.

The Saffir-Simpson scale has proven that people will pay attention to a number, so we need a numbering scale that represents the best forecast hazard potential of a storm. This can be an objective measure, it doesn't have to be subjective. Some algorithm that combines wind speed, surge potential, rain potential, and the amount of time the storm will spend over an area.

In the end you want a category 2 storm like Ike, and a category 1 storm like Isaac to end up with a danger rating above their wind category. A the same time you want much smaller storms with, say, category 3 winds to also rate as a category 3.

The solution may be to combine various scales, all 1 to 5, and always use the biggest number for the reported number to the public.

My opinion.

[brunota2003]

I've actually looked at that...another one I did was to take all the numbers (I used winds, surge, rain/flooding, and I think tornado potential) and averaged those numbers together to get your overall "risk assessment".

So, in the case of Isaac it would probably be something similar to this:

Wind: Category 1 (I would place winds less than Category 1 as 0.5, to show there is a threat still)

Surge: Category 4 (in the worst areas...problem here is different areas flood differently. Would you use different levels [0-3, 4-7, 8-11, 12-15, 16+ perhaps] as a category?)

Rainfall/Flooding: Category 3 (yes, there is a lot of rain and flooding, but the flooding isn't extensive/record setting...definitions would need to be put into place)

Tornadoes: Category 3 (Numerous radar indicated tornado warnings, but not sure how many are confirmed...some TCs have 200+ tornadoes, others have none...further study is needed, and this category doesn't necessarily have to be used)

Overall Scale: 1 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 11 / 4 = 2.75 (I would suggest rounding up). So the overall threat level would be a "3"

Without tornadoes: 1 + 4 + 3 = 8 / 3 = 2.67


I think it would be too complicated to try to put numerous numbers out there for the general public, you would either have to go with one overall "risk" number, or just do away with categories altogether...assuming you think the general, non-weather understanding, public could completely understand all possible risks from a hurricane.

"Some people are weatherwise, but most are otherwise."

[RL3AO]

Water kills people. It could be surge or inland flooding. However most people judge the seriousness of a storm my its SSHWS category.

You saw it with Isaac.

Huge BREAKING NEWS Banners.

"Isaac intensifies into Category 1 hurricane".

What had changed? It crossed a magical barrier that made it a hurricane instead of a tropical storm. It was still the same slow moving rain dumping surge producing tropical cyclone but now it had the magical "hurricane" label attached. Now it was serious.

[KBBOCA]

Some mets at Impact Weather were working a few years ago on something called the Hurricane Severity Index. I posted on it a few weeks ago here. Here's the thread with the link to their paper.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113294

I agree some other measure of broader impact beyond wind speed is needed. Keep the Saffir Simpson Scale for allowing comparison purposes but somehow the public needs something else to help rate storms' potential risks and severity.

(Likewise, I think the tracking cone graphic is misleading, and that alongside the cone graphic there needs to be another widely disseminated graphic with potential "swath of impact" three days out which would include surge risk, wind risk, rain & flooding risk, tornado risk...

[brunota2003]

Also...here are a couple other [older] threads posted about the SS Scale (ones I've posted in, so obviously not necessarily the only ones). Browse through and maybe there will be some stuff in those to spark a debate.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112508
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=88342

This was my "contribution", so to speak. One thing to note, I do like breaking down TS winds...especially since I started working on the wind graphic I was posting for Isaac. I like the break down between 34 knots (39 mph) + and 50 knots (58 mph) +..as I feel the impacts between a 40 mph TS and a 60 mph TS are different enough to warrant a break down (and could be added to the scale below). There are other ideas in the top thread, as well.

Seeing how there was a debate going on in another thread about what can be done, figured I would start a thread strictly for that idea...and see what others' ideas are.

I think, as far as record keeping goes, hurricanes should still be given the SS Wind Scale rating in the TCR. When the hurricanes are out in the ocean, away from land, they should be referred to by their wind rating as well. Once a hurricane gets to within about 48 hours of possibly making landfall, the scale should be broken down for every element...to provide a more enhanced look at the threats each individual storm is bringing.

I like the idea of "categories" or "levels", and they could keep that, just have different scales. Winds keep their current scale, surge, and rain/flooding can get their own. The header on the bulletin can have the maximum risk present.

Wind Category:
TD: < 39 mph
TS: 40 - 73 mph
Cat 1: 74 - 95 mph
Cat 2: 96 - 110 mph
Cat 3: 111 - 130 mph
Cat 4: 131 - 155 mph
Cat 5: > 155 mph

Surge Levels:
Level I: 0 - 5 feet
Level II: 5 - 10 feet
Level III: 10 - 15 feet
Level IV: 15 - 20 feet
Level V: 20+ feet
*Note: Large, battering waves will occur on top of estimated storm surge sizes.

Rain/Flooding:
Low: Nuisance flooding, small streams flooding, poor drainage areas and street flooding may occur.
Medium: Smaller rivers may flood, nuisance flooding likely. Some evacuations possible.
High: Major flooding possible, many evacuations likely due to flooding.
Extremely High: Flooding of epic proportions likely (record levels). (Very rare, used in dire emergencies mostly...like a tornado emergency, almost).
(Or something similar)

Tornado Risk (I like how the SPC outlines severe wx threats):
Slight (will always be some risk of tornadoes)
Moderate
High
*Note: Perhaps some day, we will know better which hurricanes will only produce a couple tornadoes, and which produce 100s of them.


So, the product could end up looking like this:

*EXAMPLE*

...HURRICANE ISABEL APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC...

OVERVIEW OF FORECAST THREATS AT LANDFALL AND WATCHES/WARNINGS:

WINDS: CATEGORY 2
SURGE: LEVEL II LIKELY...LEVEL III POSSIBLE
FLOODING POTENTIAL: MEDIUM
TORNADO RISK: SLIGHT

WATCHES/WARNINGS:

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

-----------------------------

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION:

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

-----------------------------

DETAILED FORECAST LANDFALL THREAT INFORMATION:

WINDS: CATEGORY 2

HURRICANE ISABEL IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. (Insert more specific info if warranted, for example, unusually strong gusts, high rise buildings/terrain, strengthening before landfall, etc).

SURGE: LEVEL II LIKELY...LEVEL III POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS.(Insert more info as needed).

RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL: MEDIUM (for example, Hurricane Floyd or TS Allison would be either high or extremely high risks)

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL. NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBLY OF SOME RIVER FLOODING. (More info as needed).

TORNADO RISK: SLIGHT

THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. (More info as needed).

-----------------------------

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER XXXXX

Actual intermediate public advisory most of the info is from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/pu ... .046.shtml?

At the end of Isabel's life, she would still go down as a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in the TCR (for continuation)...but there is a better means to describing threat levels leading up to the landfall itself.

So as you can see, there would only be some modifications to the public advisories to adjust to a multiscale system...and the public could quickly learn about the generalized threats the hurricane provides...and it is not all based specifically on the SS Scale. For specific info, obviously as usual, you would go through your local NWS. This is only meant as a better "scale" type setting. (And yes, I know the format to the public advisories has changed since 2003, this is only a rough draft).

[brunota2003]

Using the above scale (I went ahead and broke TS down into two different levels) and a public advisory from Hurricane Isaac (I'll use one from when Isaac was still a tropical storm)...the advisory might look something like this:

Wind Category:
TD: < 39 mph
TS: 40 - 57 mph
ITS: 58 - 73 mph (Intense Tropical Storm)
Cat 1: 74 - 95 mph
Cat 2: 96 - 110 mph
Cat 3: 111 - 130 mph
Cat 4: 131 - 155 mph
Cat 5: > 155 mph

Surge Levels:
Level I: 0 - 5 feet
Level II: 5 - 10 feet
Level III: 10 - 15 feet
Level IV: 15 - 20 feet
Level V: 20+ feet
*Note: Large, battering waves will occur on top of estimated storm surge sizes.

Rain/Flooding:
Low: Nuisance flooding, small streams flooding, poor drainage areas and street flooding may occur.
Medium: Smaller rivers may flood, nuisance flooding likely. Some evacuations possible.
High: Major flooding possible, many evacuations likely due to flooding.
Extremely High: Flooding of epic proportions likely (record levels). (Very rare, used in dire emergencies mostly...like a tornado emergency, almost).
(Or something similar)

Tornado Risk (I like how the SPC outlines severe wx threats):
Slight (will always be some risk of tornadoes)
Moderate
High
*Note: Perhaps some day, we will know better which hurricanes will only produce a couple tornadoes, and which produce 100s of them.

*EXAMPLE*

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...ISAAC STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD...


FORECAST THREATS AT LANDFALL
-----------------------------------------------
THREATS:
WIND: ITS CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH CATEGORY 1 CONDITIONS LIKELY
STORM SURGE: LEVEL II EXPECTED...LEVEL III LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS
FLOODING POTENTIAL: HIGH
TORNADO RISK: MODERATE


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES/WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF DESTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE
COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: LEVEL II EXPECTED...LEVEL III LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS

THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND: ITS CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH CATEGORY 1 CONDITIONS LIKELY

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND WILL REACH OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FLOODING POTENTIAL: HIGH

ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADO RISK: MODERATE

TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Discussion used:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al ... .030.shtml?

Thoughts, now that I've used the current form of Public Advisories?

[WeatherGuesser]

Again, less, not more. The public is simple-minded when it comes to these things.

I can't see any reason for any more than the three I mentioned:

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

Specific wind speeds aren't relevant for categories since there is no real difference in damage potential between 95MPH winds and 96MPH winds.

[KBBOCA]

FORECAST THREATS AT LANDFALL
-----------------------------------------------
THREATS:
WIND: ITS CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH CATEGORY 1 CONDITIONS LIKELY
STORM SURGE: LEVEL II EXPECTED...LEVEL III LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS
FLOODING POTENTIAL: HIGH
TORNADO RISK: MODERATE

I like that breakdown and its inclusion up at the top A LOT. Clear & simple (assuming that there is an easy to find link for "Category 1 wind conditions" "Level II surge" etc.)

Maybe some NHC friends are reading...?! LOL.

[brunota2003]

Again, less, not more. The public is simple-minded when it comes to these things.

I can't see any reason for any more than the three I mentioned:

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

Specific wind speeds aren't relevant for categories since there is no real difference in damage potential between 95MPH winds and 96MPH winds.

There is a large difference in 95 mph winds and 115 mph winds...or 75 mph and 150 mph...etc., and the amount of damage they cause...so there still is a need for categories. You can't just clump 85 mph worth of winds into one category. That is a huge damage difference, when you factor in that wind damage increases exponentially with wind speed.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D5.html

[brunota2003]

FORECAST THREATS AT LANDFALL
-----------------------------------------------
THREATS:
WIND: ITS CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH CATEGORY 1 CONDITIONS LIKELY
STORM SURGE: LEVEL II EXPECTED...LEVEL III LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS
FLOODING POTENTIAL: HIGH
TORNADO RISK: MODERATE

I like that breakdown and its inclusion up at the top A LOT. Clear & simple (assuming that there is an easy to find link for "Category 1 wind conditions" "Level II surge" etc.)

Maybe some NHC friends are reading...?! LOL.

It would be like the SS Scale now I would assume, with a link on the left side leading to a page with the break down.
(SS Scale link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php ). Or, since it would be a brand new scale...I would prefer a link at the top of the page, or even as part of the "clickables" for each individual storm. It could be included, like the surge graphics are, when the storm is within landfall range (whatever point they decide that would be). For storms out to sea, they stick with just the Wind Category, and for the TCRs, wind category...so that it doesn't interfere with record keeping and such. The threats section would be strictly to alert the public during landfall.

I decided at the top because I know a lot of people, who aren't into weather, only skim the top and have a tendency to not read all the way through.

[WeatherGuesser]

You're still thinking like a Met talking to a Met. You're not thinking like someone responsible for public safety talking to the public, many of who may not even have a high school education.

You don't want to be adding more charts and reference tables that people need to look at to figure out what you're saying. They want to know if it's going to swamp their boat or not. They want to know if it's going to cause the levees to break.

When SPC puts out a tornado warning, no one cares where it might be on the scale. That scale is only used for damage assessment afterwards.

When dealing with these types of alerts, refer back to the KISS principle.

Keep It Simple Stupid (or Keep It Stupidly Simple)

[brunota2003]

You're still thinking like a Met talking to a Met. You're not thinking like someone responsible for public safety talking to the public, many of who may not even have a high school education.

You don't want to be adding more charts and reference tables that people need to look at to figure out what you're saying. They want to know if it's going to swamp their boat or not. They want to know if it's going to cause the levees to break.

When SPC puts out a tornado warning, no one cares where it might be on the scale. That scale is only used for damage assessment afterwards.

When dealing with these types of alerts, refer back to the KISS principle.

Keep It Simple Stupid (or Keep It Stupidly Simple)

That's actually not true. I've run into a number of people that want to know, beforehand, how strong the tornado heading toward them is. The reason the NWS can't put it into the warnings now is that there is no way to know until after a damage assessment is done. They can, and do, say the tornado is large, a wedge, multivortex, etc in the warnings.

I understand where the whole KISS thing comes from, but people hate the unknown. Is a TS going to swamp their house? What about that hurricane? Why should they evacuate for a TS? Give them the at a glance facts up front, right at the very top, about what this storm is expected to do. Obviously they learned the SS Scale, so they can't be so simple minded that they can't learn a different one. The different levels would, in theory, help the emergency management out also. If they know there is a predicted surge of Level III coming for their area, then they can quickly decide they need to evacuate those flood zones (the Levels could be incorporated into quick reaction type planning). Emergency management can find out what a Level whatever surge does to their local areas and tailor their plans to such.

When I was in NC, knowing as much info as quickly as possible was critical to everyone. How high are the winds going to be? What about rainfall potential? Are tornadoes a big threat with this one? What kind of surge is predicted on the sound? How about the ocean side? All those things factored into whether or not someone is going to evacuate...while saying "It's a TS." and letting the hazards section speak for itself on the advisories seems like it is the most logical explanation (or KISS method), people still want benchmarks to compare to...and when you start letting the general public create their own benchmarks, or their own systems, things can get dangerous quickly. "Oh, the last one labeled a hurricane was nothing, so this one will be the same. I don't need to evacuate."

[somethingfunny]

One of the last IKE ratings I saw on Isaac before its' landfall had it as a 4.1 for surge and 2.2 for winds. (remember, IKE ratings for wind damage potential include duration unlike SSHS) I think the numbers actually got higher before landfall than they were in this image:



I say just release both numbers, although training folks to the fact that IKE goes 0.1 through 6 rather than 1 through 5 might be difficult and require a recalibration of IKE. Two numbers is not a big deal for folks to understand, and it accurately conveys the risks. If you averaged Isaac's 4.1 and 2.2 together though you'll end up with 3/6. Not quite a Category 3 equivalent, but close enough to maybe get some folks' attention in Louisiana when you explain that it's stronger than Gustav was on the same ranking system.

The huge problem with SSHS is it says nothing about the hurricane except what the maximum wind measured somewhere within the tiny eyewall is. So not only is in inaccurate about surge and wind duration and other dangers, but it also gives rise to the "I survived a Cat3 with no problem!" mentality from people who may have only experienced Cat1 gusts 40 miles from the eye, outside of that rather localized radius of maximum winds.

Of course the problem with IKE is storms like Charley that don't carry much surge or last for very long or drop much rain... but are still very clearly extremely intense hurricanes. Would I rate Isaac as a Category Four? No. Would I rate Charley less than a Category Four? No. So it's not a perfect system yet.... but the SSHS needed to be done away with a long time ago in my opinion.

[Andrew92]

I have a rather simple definition for a major hurricane. A storm is a major hurricane if it meets at least one of these two criteria:

1. Like the Saffir/Simpson Scale says, maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, and/or

2. The minimum pressure is no higher than 960 millibars.

No matter what the Saffir/Simpson Scale may say, I will never be convinced that Ike was not a major hurricane when it hit Texas, or Floyd back in 1999, or even Irene last year (even if she was a tropical storm by wind intensity from New Jersey northward). I tracked and followed these storms closely and they were huge headaches, far greater than a typical category 1 or 2 storm like these hurricanes were - and all had pressures below 960 millibars when they struck the areas they hit hardest. It's not just about the wind speeds, it's about all the potential inside the storm, and these storms and some others had it. Now granted, Isaac wouldn't meet my definition, yet its storm surge potential was also like that of a typical major hurricane; therefore, maybe even my own definition needs work, provided the total amount of damage with Isaac holds or goes higher which appears likely. However, the Saffir/Simpson Scale needs some kind of reform to raise awareness of the power of some of these storms and what they are truly and fully capable of. And typically, a storm with a pressure of 960 millibars are lower is quite capable of massive damage, seen time and time again.

That's my take anyway.

-Andrew92

[jinftl]

This needs to be kept simple for the media to convey and for the public to understand. If you live in an area prone to and with a history of severe surge events (Galveston, MS coast, LA coast, AL coast, etc), you need to prepare for a surge event at least 2 categories above the storm’s SS # for wind.

So for a strong TS/Cat 1 approaching the MS and LA coast, folks there need to prepare for a surge of at least Cat 2 intensity and even Cat 3. For a strong Cat 2 like Ike approaching Galveston, folks there need to prepare for at least a strong Cat 4 surge.

So, for pretty much the entire Gulf Coast, it comes down to:

Wind = use Saffir-Simpson #
Surge = prepare for Saffir-Simpson # +2 categories

Surge = Wind + 2

[Hurricane Andrew]

They have used the SS scale for years and years. Just...abandoning it...would be a MAJOR shock, and have MAJOR reprecussions. it would take YEARS for people toget familiar with the new scale.

[WeatherGuesser]

Interesting ........

Isaac, after all, was only a Category 1 hurricane, right?

And there lies the problem. First, there's the inadequacy of the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranks hurricanes on the strength of their winds from Category 1 to 5. It often fails to capture the destructive surge, as Galveston experienced during Hurricane Ike four years ago to the day on Thursday, or the inland flooding potential of a storm.

Houston Chronical: Is there a better hurricane scale?