Upcoming Week - July 30-August 5

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Confidence was very high this past week that no tropical activity would occur. However, that prediction was put to a severe test on Monday and Tuesday with Invest 98L quickly trying to organize into what easily would have been a tropical storm. However, such development either did not happen, or did and was missed and will go down as an unnamed storm. The feature, impressive as it was, is a little too transient for me to think it was a tropical storm, so my grade for this past week is an A.

And the wheels are rolling again! How does this week look? Coming into August, when things get interesting…

Current situation and analysis

As we all know, 2012 is looking like an El Nino year, and those years per all sorts of weekly discussions bring about storms from frontal systems. However, none appear to be coming down the pipe for this upcoming week. No reliable models develop any of these kinds of storms either anytime soon.

However, more tropical waves are coming off the African coast in recent days. There is a very disorganized one – P07L – just east of the Lesser Antilles that is showing no signs of organization. It is also likely to run into very strong wind shear in the Caribbean. There is another wave just off the African coast with what looks like a circulation, but weak thunderstorms – this is Pouch P10L. Immediate development of this system is unexpected. However, the NOGAPS, GFS, UKMET, Euro, and Canadian models all are starting to bite on development pretty soon. In particular, these models are suggesting some kind of development could occur by Friday a little east of the Lesser Antilles. The Canadian and GFS think this will grow in intensity somewhat markedly before reaching the islands – even developing it by Thursday. The Canadian even favors a hurricane reaching the Florida coast in about a week. That said, the other models favor a slower development heading into the Caribbean, but potentially in the direction of Puerto Rico. P10L seems like a likely contender to develop around that time, in that area. Or is the development going to come from a new wave that just came off Africa right behind it? There is now Pouch P09L in that area. Or perhaps they both develop, which the GFS seems to suggest.

Elsewhere, no tropical development seems likely this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed and/or occurred during this upcoming week:

Arlene in 1963
An unnamed storm in 1964
Anna in 1969 (already active)
Celia in 1970
An unnamed storm in 1971
Subtropical Storm Alfa in 1973
Anna in 1976
Amelia in 1978
Allen in 1980
Cindy in 1981
Chantal in 1989
Dean in 1989
Bertha in 1990 (already active)
Cesar in 1990
Diana in 1990
Bret in 1993
Dean in 1995
Erin in 1995
Alex in 1998 (already active)
Alberto in 2000
Barry in 2001
Bertha in 2002
Alex in 2004
Harvey in 2005
Chris in 2006
Chantal in 2007
Edouard in 2008
Don in 2010
Emily in 2011

That’s a very impressive 29 named storms to develop or be active coming into this upcoming week. Yet, only 11 of these went on to become hurricanes, with an additional five peaking at that 65-70 mph threshold close to hurricane intensity. Also, four of these storms became category 3 or higher hurricanes: Celia, Allen, Alberto, and 2004 Alex.

19 of these 29 storms that occurred came from tropical waves, producing nine of the eleven hurricanes. The only two storms to form from frontal lows and become hurricanes during this upcoming week were the unnamed storm in 1971 and Bertha in 1990. Both were category 1’s, peaking no higher than 80-85 mph.


In 17 El Nino years since 1960, five storms have formed: Arlene in 1963 (and I am skeptical that this was El Nino and not 1962), Anna in 1976, Bret in 1993, Bertha in 2002, and Chris in 2006. Only Arlene of this batch became a hurricane. Three of these storms came from tropical waves in the Mean Development Region: Arlene, Bret, and Chris. Chris did come close briefly to being a hurricane, peaking at 65 mph, and Bret managed 60 mph before running into South America. The other two storms developed from frontal systems – Bertha in the Gulf of Mexico and Anna out over the open Atlantic.

Some other storms that were either developing or just about to develop during this upcoming week in El Nino years include Belle in 1976, an unnamed storm in 1987, Arlene in 1987, and Cristobal in 2002. Belle and the unnamed storm came from tropical waves; Arlene and Cristobal, from frontal lows. Belle became a category 3 hurricane briefly before settling for landfall in Long Island as a borderline hurricane with 75-mph winds. Arlene also eventually became a hurricane far out over open waters a couple weeks later. The other two storms never came close – the unnamed storm ran out of the time while Cristobal never found favorable conditions.

Put it all together and eight or nine storms (depending on if you believe 1963 was El Nino or if the stronger such year was 1962) have developed in El Nino years during or just after this upcoming week – about one every other El Nino year. The split between storms from tropical waves and frontal systems is also even, at 4-4 taking out 1963, 5-4 including it. Also, of the storms to form from tropical waves, two plus 1963 Arlene formed in the Main Development Region, while Belle formed near the Bahamas and the 1987 unnamed storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

I mention 1963 in this context because I recently learned there was a long warm Pacific event that year. However, that season had nine storms, seven of which were hurricanes – though only Flora became a major hurricane. But 1962, the year prior, had only five storms and three hurricanes. Only Ella became a major hurricane late that year.

So what does this all tell us?

In the broad picture, storms coming from frontal systems are getting a little harder to come by, even in El Nino years. But that’s not to say that it’s any easier to get storms from tropical waves either. But if you’re looking for such an event to occur, it’s a safer bet that it will develop a little closer to land. It’s also even harder for these storms to become hurricanes, let alone category 3’s or higher, as only Belle has managed that near this upcoming week (actually slightly after) – and only 1963 Arlene joined her in intensifying into even a hurricane at all. Like I said, I am also a little skeptical that that year was a true El Nino year, despite having a warm episode during the heart of hurricane season in the Pacific, or if it was maybe a Modoki year. Remember, the only other storm to become a hurricane from forming near this upcoming week didn’t actually do so until a couple weeks later actually, far from any land areas too. Chris did also come close at one point in 2006 despite lots of unfavorable conditions prevailing, but choked to dry air. This all makes me think a decent tropical storm is definitely possible, but the likelihood of a hurricane just isn’t there, for now.

Then again, the reliable models are jumping on one of the tropical waves near the African coast. It seems unlikely that something won’t develop just east of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday or Friday. But that strong shear likely to rip apart Pouch P07L isn’t likely to just go away either, so I really think any system that gets going will at least be held in check for a little while. Therefore, I would probably say the biggest threat will be a rain/flood event.

The strong shear I mentioned in the Caribbean will also rip apart any chances of Pouch P07L becoming anything more than a weak Invest, in my opinion. This is supported in my analysis of El Nino year developments, as not one storm has developed in the Caribbean either during or just after this upcoming week in such a year, at least since 1960.

Lastly, though the GFS is playing with the idea of potentially two developing storms this upcoming week, this hasn’t happened so early in an El Nino year. Not mentioned before is that Ana and Bill in 2009 came close, but were about a week or two later. More likely is just one storm develops this upcoming week, maximum.

The prediction

Ernesto is coming very shortly, this much seems likely. Pouch P10L and Pouch09L both look like candidates, but I think only one will wind up developing. Pouch P07L isn’t going anywhere except the Pacific though in a few days, thanks to lots of shear in the Caribbean.

I predict no development for Pouch P07L until reaching the Eastern Pacific. Confidence is 95%.

I predict Pouch P10L and Pouch P09L to fight over which wins the battle to develop, but P09L will win, since it appears a bit better defined. It will form into a tropical depression on Thursday night and become Tropical Storm Ernesto on Friday, a short distance east of the Windward Islands. Ernesto will be a little slow to intensify, having winds of 45-50 mph as it approaches the northern Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands by Saturday. Ernesto will intensify a little more to 50-60 as it reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Sunday. The main effect from this storm will be heavy rainfall, though some strong winds in higher elevations could cause some localized heavy damage too. Confidence is 50%.

Elsewhere, I predict no further development form Pouch P10L, or from any other tropical wave or frontal system this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

EDIT: Just changed my mind about P09L and P10L - I think it will be P09L, after closer examination.

[KimmieLa]

Enjoyed your post! I was reading the Farmers Almanac and it is predicting a named storm in the Gulf the second week in August. Hmmmmm....

[Andrew92]

Well if the Farmers Almanac is accurate, Ernesto is the most likely candidate. But as you will see in my newest update, I don't think that will happen. But before we do that, let's evaluate this past week.

This past week seemed to center on one thing: Tropical Storm Ernesto. I did correctly call for its development a little east of the Caribbean, but I called for it to form into a depression on Thursday, and a tropical storm on Friday. Both of these two events occurred 24 hours earlier than I thought. Ernesto also moved westward at a lot faster of a clip than I anticipated. I predicted by now it would be near the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. Instead, this storm is south of Jamaica and on a beeline for Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. I also thought Ernesto would go a bit further north, impacting the Leeward Islands a little more than it did, and coming much closer to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However, I was actually pretty close with the intensity. I predicted a 45-50 mph storm upon reaching the Caribbean as happened, and a slightly stronger storm with winds of 50-60 mph near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. And while it stayed quite a bit further south of where I predicted, the intensity near that general area was right on the money, at 50-60 mph. The primary threats have been heavy rain with this storm in the Windward Islands, but not in the other areas that I predicted. Had I predicted Ernesto to move as fast as it did, I was leaning towards it running into Hispaniola and disintegrating, or if further south being a lot weaker than 50-60 mph that it remains at about. Then again, even with these winds, the pressure has risen in this storm and drier air has been entrained into it, with the help of some lower-level shear in the area. But I never called for that to happen, and was planning on doing so for about Monday or Tuesday. But then again, at the time, none of the models seemed to foresee such a rapid westward track for Ernesto, so I probably did a relatively passable job, all things considered. I give myself a C for this storm.

However, I predicted no other developments with 85% confidence. I did mention that the GFS was trying to pick up on another development behind Ernesto, but no other models seemed to agree. Nonetheless, Florence developed on Friday anyway. It hasn’t proved to be the most intense storm ever mind you, but I really missed this one. I don’t know that I would have predicted this one looking back anyway, and certainly not with winds of 60 mph by week’s end, but I still give myself a high F for this storm.

Overall, Ernesto is given a bit more weight than Florence, and I at least did a passable job, but this week still was not a great one for me. I give myself a C- for this past week.

LONG update for this new week coming shortly.

-Andrew92

[somethingfunny]

Hehe - about that Farmers Almanac bit (and I don't buy into their "forecasts" at all) ... the GFS is hinting at a tropical system developing in the Bay of Campeche in about 10 days, probably from a broad area of low pressure that includes Ernesto's remnants. This hypothetical system then tracks NNW toward Brownsville, similar to Hermine from 2010.

Excellent job this week, Andrew! Florence was one of those "can't see it coming until it's staring you in the face" sort of surprise systems.

[Andrew92]

I did see something today in I think the GFS that in the long range, something might try to get going in the Gulf of Mexico. I think this is in another week or so. I am tending to think something will try to develop in the Gulf this month, but due to this year being an El Nino I think intensification will at least be somewhat suppressed. Most likely a tropical storm, maybe minimal hurricane at the very strongest.

-Andrew92

[Ptarmigan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Confidence was very high this past week that no tropical activity would occur. However, that prediction was put to a severe test on Monday and Tuesday with Invest 98L quickly trying to organize into what easily would have been a tropical storm. However, such development either did not happen, or did and was missed and will go down as an unnamed storm. The feature, impressive as it was, is a little too transient for me to think it was a tropical storm, so my grade for this past week is an A.

And the wheels are rolling again! How does this week look? Coming into August, when things get interesting…

Current situation and analysis

As we all know, 2012 is looking like an El Nino year, and those years per all sorts of weekly discussions bring about storms from frontal systems. However, none appear to be coming down the pipe for this upcoming week. No reliable models develop any of these kinds of storms either anytime soon.

However, more tropical waves are coming off the African coast in recent days. There is a very disorganized one – P07L – just east of the Lesser Antilles that is showing no signs of organization. It is also likely to run into very strong wind shear in the Caribbean. There is another wave just off the African coast with what looks like a circulation, but weak thunderstorms – this is Pouch P10L. Immediate development of this system is unexpected. However, the NOGAPS, GFS, UKMET, Euro, and Canadian models all are starting to bite on development pretty soon. In particular, these models are suggesting some kind of development could occur by Friday a little east of the Lesser Antilles. The Canadian and GFS think this will grow in intensity somewhat markedly before reaching the islands – even developing it by Thursday. The Canadian even favors a hurricane reaching the Florida coast in about a week. That said, the other models favor a slower development heading into the Caribbean, but potentially in the direction of Puerto Rico. P10L seems like a likely contender to develop around that time, in that area. Or is the development going to come from a new wave that just came off Africa right behind it? There is now Pouch P09L in that area. Or perhaps they both develop, which the GFS seems to suggest.

Elsewhere, no tropical development seems likely this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed and/or occurred during this upcoming week:

Arlene in 1963
An unnamed storm in 1964
Anna in 1969 (already active)
Celia in 1970
An unnamed storm in 1971
Subtropical Storm Alfa in 1973
Anna in 1976
Amelia in 1978
Allen in 1980
Cindy in 1981
Chantal in 1989
Dean in 1989
Bertha in 1990 (already active)
Cesar in 1990
Diana in 1990
Bret in 1993
Dean in 1995
Erin in 1995
Alex in 1998 (already active)
Alberto in 2000
Barry in 2001
Bertha in 2002
Alex in 2004
Harvey in 2005
Chris in 2006
Chantal in 2007
Edouard in 2008
Don in 2010
Emily in 2011

That’s a very impressive 29 named storms to develop or be active coming into this upcoming week. Yet, only 11 of these went on to become hurricanes, with an additional five peaking at that 65-70 mph threshold close to hurricane intensity. Also, four of these storms became category 3 or higher hurricanes: Celia, Allen, Alberto, and 2004 Alex.

19 of these 29 storms that occurred came from tropical waves, producing nine of the eleven hurricanes. The only two storms to form from frontal lows and become hurricanes during this upcoming week were the unnamed storm in 1971 and Bertha in 1990. Both were category 1’s, peaking no higher than 80-85 mph.


In 17 El Nino years since 1960, five storms have formed: Arlene in 1963 (and I am skeptical that this was El Nino and not 1962), Anna in 1976, Bret in 1993, Bertha in 2002, and Chris in 2006. Only Arlene of this batch became a hurricane. Three of these storms came from tropical waves in the Mean Development Region: Arlene, Bret, and Chris. Chris did come close briefly to being a hurricane, peaking at 65 mph, and Bret managed 60 mph before running into South America. The other two storms developed from frontal systems – Bertha in the Gulf of Mexico and Anna out over the open Atlantic.

Some other storms that were either developing or just about to develop during this upcoming week in El Nino years include Belle in 1976, an unnamed storm in 1987, Arlene in 1987, and Cristobal in 2002. Belle and the unnamed storm came from tropical waves; Arlene and Cristobal, from frontal lows. Belle became a category 3 hurricane briefly before settling for landfall in Long Island as a borderline hurricane with 75-mph winds. Arlene also eventually became a hurricane far out over open waters a couple weeks later. The other two storms never came close – the unnamed storm ran out of the time while Cristobal never found favorable conditions.

Put it all together and eight or nine storms (depending on if you believe 1963 was El Nino or if the stronger such year was 1962) have developed in El Nino years during or just after this upcoming week – about one every other El Nino year. The split between storms from tropical waves and frontal systems is also even, at 4-4 taking out 1963, 5-4 including it. Also, of the storms to form from tropical waves, two plus 1963 Arlene formed in the Main Development Region, while Belle formed near the Bahamas and the 1987 unnamed storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

I mention 1963 in this context because I recently learned there was a long warm Pacific event that year. However, that season had nine storms, seven of which were hurricanes – though only Flora became a major hurricane. But 1962, the year prior, had only five storms and three hurricanes. Only Ella became a major hurricane late that year.

So what does this all tell us?

In the broad picture, storms coming from frontal systems are getting a little harder to come by, even in El Nino years. But that’s not to say that it’s any easier to get storms from tropical waves either. But if you’re looking for such an event to occur, it’s a safer bet that it will develop a little closer to land. It’s also even harder for these storms to become hurricanes, let alone category 3’s or higher, as only Belle has managed that near this upcoming week (actually slightly after) – and only 1963 Arlene joined her in intensifying into even a hurricane at all. Like I said, I am also a little skeptical that that year was a true El Nino year, despite having a warm episode during the heart of hurricane season in the Pacific, or if it was maybe a Modoki year. Remember, the only other storm to become a hurricane from forming near this upcoming week didn’t actually do so until a couple weeks later actually, far from any land areas too. Chris did also come close at one point in 2006 despite lots of unfavorable conditions prevailing, but choked to dry air. This all makes me think a decent tropical storm is definitely possible, but the likelihood of a hurricane just isn’t there, for now.

Then again, the reliable models are jumping on one of the tropical waves near the African coast. It seems unlikely that something won’t develop just east of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday or Friday. But that strong shear likely to rip apart Pouch P07L isn’t likely to just go away either, so I really think any system that gets going will at least be held in check for a little while. Therefore, I would probably say the biggest threat will be a rain/flood event.

The strong shear I mentioned in the Caribbean will also rip apart any chances of Pouch P07L becoming anything more than a weak Invest, in my opinion. This is supported in my analysis of El Nino year developments, as not one storm has developed in the Caribbean either during or just after this upcoming week in such a year, at least since 1960.

Lastly, though the GFS is playing with the idea of potentially two developing storms this upcoming week, this hasn’t happened so early in an El Nino year. Not mentioned before is that Ana and Bill in 2009 came close, but were about a week or two later. More likely is just one storm develops this upcoming week, maximum.

The prediction

Ernesto is coming very shortly, this much seems likely. Pouch P10L and Pouch09L both look like candidates, but I think only one will wind up developing. Pouch P07L isn’t going anywhere except the Pacific though in a few days, thanks to lots of shear in the Caribbean.

I predict no development for Pouch P07L until reaching the Eastern Pacific. Confidence is 95%.

I predict Pouch P10L and Pouch P09L to fight over which wins the battle to develop, but P09L will win, since it appears a bit better defined. It will form into a tropical depression on Thursday night and become Tropical Storm Ernesto on Friday, a short distance east of the Windward Islands. Ernesto will be a little slow to intensify, having winds of 45-50 mph as it approaches the northern Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands by Saturday. Ernesto will intensify a little more to 50-60 as it reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Sunday. The main effect from this storm will be heavy rainfall, though some strong winds in higher elevations could cause some localized heavy damage too. Confidence is 50%.

Elsewhere, I predict no further development form Pouch P10L, or from any other tropical wave or frontal system this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

EDIT: Just changed my mind about P09L and P10L - I think it will be P09L, after closer examination.

1963-1964 was a Modoki El Nino.

Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... intpage.pl

I used that site to look at Sea Surface Temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific region. 1963-1964 was a Modoki El Nino.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Great website! And now I finally get where I have been confused all along since I found out 1963 was an El Nino year... I should have guessed. Still puzzled though why 1962 was so inactive, as it was a La Nina year. Maybe that's just another study altogether.

You ask me what El Nino year I foresee after seeing them all? I'm thinking 1993. Some comparisons to storms that year and this year:

TD #1 - formed in the Caribbean in May, didn't intensify until becoming extratropical just north of the Bahamas (like Alberto and Beryl)
Arlene - weak Gulf storm (but western Gulf, versus Debby this year, but both were large and disorganized)
Bret/Cindy - early Caribbean storms, rare in El Nino's this early but both struggled (like Ernesto, though he is in new territory but still struggling a bit)
Dennis - premature Cape Verde storm that could never get going (like Florence)

Can't see anything that would resemble this year's Chris from that year, or maybe he was just a crazy anomaly. However, the GFS has certainly played with idea of a storm like Emily from 1993 near North Carolina sometime this month too... it also wouldn't really get itself together until a bit north of the Tropic of Cancer according to those runs, like Emily.

And even though some consider 1993 more of a neutral year, it was definitely on the high side of it to be sure. SST's in the equatorial Eastern Pacific were always close to half a degree above average, the storms developing where you would normally look for development always struggled, while the hurricanes except for Gert strengthened in more northern latitudes. That year also saw the last storm be gone on September 21. I'm no expert, but if you ask me, I think those seem like classic El Nino signs.

We shall see though if these similarities continue.

-Andrew92

[Ptarmigan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Great website! And now I finally get where I have been confused all along since I found out 1963 was an El Nino year... I should have guessed. Still puzzled though why 1962 was so inactive, as it was a La Nina year. Maybe that's just another study altogether.

You ask me what El Nino year I foresee after seeing them all? I'm thinking 1993. Some comparisons to storms that year and this year:

TD #1 - formed in the Caribbean in May, didn't intensify until becoming extratropical just north of the Bahamas (like Alberto and Beryl)
Arlene - weak Gulf storm (but western Gulf, versus Debby this year, but both were large and disorganized)
Bret/Cindy - early Caribbean storms, rare in El Nino's this early but both struggled (like Ernesto, though he is in new territory but still struggling a bit)
Dennis - premature Cape Verde storm that could never get going (like Florence)

Can't see anything that would resemble this year's Chris from that year, or maybe he was just a crazy anomaly. However, the GFS has certainly played with idea of a storm like Emily from 1993 near North Carolina sometime this month too... it also wouldn't really get itself together until a bit north of the Tropic of Cancer according to those runs, like Emily.

And even though some consider 1993 more of a neutral year, it was definitely on the high side of it to be sure. SST's in the equatorial Eastern Pacific were always close to half a degree above average, the storms developing where you would normally look for development always struggled, while the hurricanes except for Gert strengthened in more northern latitudes. That year also saw the last storm be gone on September 21. I'm no expert, but if you ask me, I think those seem like classic El Nino signs.

We shall see though if these similarities continue.

-Andrew92

It is interesting that 1962 was a quiet year. Here is an article about the 1962 season and why it was less active.

The Hurricane Season of 1962
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1962.pdf

Reasons
Westerlies Further South Than Usual
Persistent Ridge
Eastern US Was Cooler


1977 is also interesting as all the basin was less than normal to quiet, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Atlantic and East Pacific had one of the quietest season. Early 1977 was weak El Nino and went back to El Nino in late 1977.