Interesting Patterns you've noticed in all the hurricane sea

[HurricaneRyan]

What are some of the most interesting patterns you have noticed while looking back or keeping track of all the Hurricane seasons? Don't be afraid to share some unique stuff.

Here's what I've noticed. For starters, every year that ended with an 8 since the modern naming lists have been used has retired one G name in each year.

1988: Gilbert
1998: Georges
2008: Gustav

I have also noticed that Danielle has been equally a Tropical Storm and a Hurricane - 3 times each. And both times were consecutive. All three tropical storms affected land and all three Hurricanes didn't. The same can be said for Gabrielle - a tropical storm and hurricane twice. But the pattern with Gabrielle is that it was a hurricane in 1989, a tropical storm in 1995, a hurricane in 2001, and then a tropical storm in 2007. Will it be a hurricane in 2013? We'll see.

What patterns have YOU noticed?

[Andrew92]

Here's one: In the satellite era, every year that is two years after a "real" El Nino year has produced either a Category 3 hurricane or higher into the US, or if not that at least a very destructive storm for the US.

1963: Two years later Betsy hits the Florida Keys and New Orleans
1965: Two years later Beulah slams into South Texas
1972: Two years later Carmen roars into Louisiana
1976-1977: Two years later comes Frederic into Mississippi. David also hits Florida and Georgia after ravaging Hispaniola
1982-1983: Two years later is Elena in the Gulf. Also Gloria hits the East Coast and Juan deluges Louisiana
1986-1987: Two years later Hugo slams into South Carolina
1991-1994: Long period! But two years later Fran hits North Carolina
1997: Two years later Bret hits sparsely-populated Kenedy County, Texas, as a C3 but is small. Also Floyd slams into and floods the East Coast
2002: Two years later are Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
2006: Two years later Gustav and Ike ravage Louisiana and Texas respectively, though neither is a C3 at landfall but both leave major damage
2009: Two years later Irene may be a C1 in North Carolina only, but is large and still causes major problems all along the East Coast

Looking at this, and being that it's been seven years since Wilma (the last C3 or higher by wind speed), I am very nervous about 2014. Going down that list even scares me more than a little, that bad. Enjoy it now.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Or was 1962 the El Nino year, not 1963? Either way, two years after 1962 were Cleo and Dora for Florida, and Hilda for Louisiana - another C3 at landfall. The pattern continues.

-Andrew92

[HurricaneRyan]

Here's one: In the satellite era, every year that is two years after a "real" El Nino year has produced either a Category 3 hurricane or higher into the US, or if not that at least a very destructive storm for the US.

1963: Two years later Betsy hits the Florida Keys and New Orleans
1965: Two years later Beulah slams into South Texas
1972: Two years later Carmen roars into Louisiana
1976-1977: Two years later comes Frederic into Mississippi. David also hits Florida and Georgia after ravaging Hispaniola
1982-1983: Two years later is Elena in the Gulf. Also Gloria hits the East Coast and Juan deluges Louisiana
1986-1987: Two years later Hugo slams into South Carolina
1991-1994: Long period! But two years later Fran hits North Carolina
1997: Two years later Bret hits sparsely-populated Kenedy County, Texas, as a C3 but is small. Also Floyd slams into and floods the East Coast
2002: Two years later are Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
2006: Two years later Gustav and Ike ravage Louisiana and Texas respectively, though neither is a C3 at landfall but both leave major damage
2009: Two years later Irene may be a C1 in North Carolina only, but is large and still causes major problems all along the East Coast

Looking at this, and being that it's been seven years since Wilma (the last C3 or higher by wind speed), I am very nervous about 2014. Going down that list even scares me more than a little, that bad. Enjoy it now.

-Andrew92

Wow. That's crazy!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

All of the recent leap years have had powerful hurricane hits on the USA or Central America.

2008: Ike, Gustav
2004: Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Frances
2000: Keith
1996: Bertha, Fran
1992: Andrew

And so on...

[jinftl]

La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1916, 1924, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2011

Looks like 2 years after La Nina events, majors or storms that have caused significant damage make landfall in the U.S. too - including some who's who of storms like The Great Miami Hurricane (Cat 4), Audrey (Cat 4), Agnes (devastating Cat 1), Eloise (Cat 3).

We had la ninas in 2010 and 2011 so this season and next may be stats to add to this...

1904 - Cat 3 makes landfall in SW Florida in October 1906
1908 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall in 1910 - one in Texas, one in Florida
1916 - Cat 3 makes landfall in TX/LA in 1918
1924 - Great Miami Hurricane hits as Cat 4 in 1926
1938 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall - one in LA/TX and one in SC/GA
1955 - Audrey makes landfall in TX as Cat 4 in 1957
1964 - one Cat 1 and one Cat 2 make landfall in FL in 1966
1970 - Cat 1 Agnes makes landfall in 1972 but name is retired after doing billions in damage and killing 128 from Gulf Coast to New England
1973 - Cat 3 Eloise makes landfall in 1975 in FL/AL
1988 - no landfalling hurricanes in 1990….hmm
1995 - Cat 1 Danny makes landfall in 1997 on Northern Gulf Coast
1998 - no landfalling hurricanes in 2000
2010 - what will happen in 2012???
2011 - what will happen in 2013???

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

You forgot the Great New England Hurricane 1938 Cat. 3 (shame on you )

[Hammy]

interesting thing I've noticed, someone mentioned the name Danielle--another oddity is it has been successively stronger each time it is used
1980: 60 mph, 1004 mb
1986: 60 mph, 1000 mb
1992: 65 mph, 1001 mb
1998: 105 mph, 960 mb
2004: 110 mph, 964 mb
2010: 130 mph, 942 mb

and on naming, Isaac is the last remaining I name of the original lists (and is up this year)

[Ptarmigan]

Since NHC used the current 6 year naming cycle I noticed this:
1983: Alicia
1989: Allison
2001: Allison

All made landfall on Upper Texas Coast and were devastating.

Seasons Following El Nino Modoki In Winter
1995: 19/11/5
2003: 16/7/3
2005: 28/15/7
2010: 19/12/5

I notice seasons following El Nino Modoki are very active.

[Ptarmigan]

La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1916, 1924, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2011

Looks like 2 years after La Nina events, majors or storms that have caused significant damage make landfall in the U.S. too - including some who's who of storms like The Great Miami Hurricane (Cat 4), Audrey (Cat 4), Agnes (devastating Cat 1), Eloise (Cat 3).

We had la ninas in 2010 and 2011 so this season and next may be stats to add to this...

1904 - Cat 3 makes landfall in SW Florida in October 1906
1908 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall in 1910 - one in Texas, one in Florida
1916 - Cat 3 makes landfall in TX/LA in 1918
1924 - Great Miami Hurricane hits as Cat 4 in 1926
1938 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall - one in LA/TX and one in SC/GA
1955 - Audrey makes landfall in TX as Cat 4 in 1957
1964 - one Cat 1 and one Cat 2 make landfall in FL in 1966
1970 - Cat 1 Agnes makes landfall in 1972 but name is retired after doing billions in damage and killing 128 from Gulf Coast to New England
1973 - Cat 3 Eloise makes landfall in 1975 in FL/AL
1988 - no landfalling hurricanes in 1990….hmm
1995 - Cat 1 Danny makes landfall in 1997 on Northern Gulf Coast
1998 - no landfalling hurricanes in 2000
2010 - what will happen in 2012???
2011 - what will happen in 2013???

La Nina also occurred in 1999. There was back to back La Nina from late 1998 to early 2001.

[Andrew92]

OK, I am going to revise the pattern I noticed, about two seasons after "real El Nino's, there being a major hurricane hitting the United States.

There have also been three Modoki El Nino years in the satellite era: 1963, 1969, and 2004. What I noticed is that, to add to my previous theory, in this admittedly small sample size, only one year later was when the US got hit by a major hurricane (1964, 1970 which is also two years after another "real" one I overlooked, and 2005). I'll detail below after I make three more editions.

One edition is to make the seasons of 2008 and 2011 more accomodating. Both of those two years fit the bill of "two years after a 'real' El Nino year." Yet when you look at the winds themselves, Gustav, Ike, and Irene were category 1 or 2 hurricanes. So I fine-tuned this theory to storms that hit with pressures that usually correspond to category 3 or higher. The maximum value I have chosen is 960.

Also, it has hit me that 1983 was actually a La Nina year, and therefore I would have to look at 1984 instead of 1985. Then again, it sure seemed like 1983 was still an El Nino, so I will still give Elena and Gloria their due, even though Diana was pretty much right there at Cape Fear as a high-end category 3 hurricane.

OK, enough jibber-jabber. Here are the years that came two years after a "real" El Nino, along with those that are one year after a Modoki. Storms that hit the US with pressures of 960 or lower and noted with their actual value.

1964: Hilda (959)
1967: Beulah (931)
1970: Celia (945)
1974: Carmen (937)
1979: Frederic (946)
1984: Diana (949, not onshore but about as close as you can get)
1985: Elena (959) and Gloria (942) - just in case you consider 1983 still a bit El Nino
1989: Hugo (935)
1996: Fran (954)
1999: Bret (951) and Floyd (956)
2004: Charley (941), Frances (960), Ivan (946), and Jeanne (950) - still was two years after "real" 2002
2005: Dennis (946), Katrina (920), Rita (937), and Wilma (950)
2008: Gustav (954) and Ike (950)
2011: Irene (952)

-Andrew92

[HurricaneRyan]

La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1916, 1924, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2011

Looks like 2 years after La Nina events, majors or storms that have caused significant damage make landfall in the U.S. too - including some who's who of storms like The Great Miami Hurricane (Cat 4), Audrey (Cat 4), Agnes (devastating Cat 1), Eloise (Cat 3).

We had la ninas in 2010 and 2011 so this season and next may be stats to add to this...

1904 - Cat 3 makes landfall in SW Florida in October 1906
1908 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall in 1910 - one in Texas, one in Florida
1916 - Cat 3 makes landfall in TX/LA in 1918
1924 - Great Miami Hurricane hits as Cat 4 in 1926
1938 - 2 Cat 2's make landfall - one in LA/TX and one in SC/GA
1955 - Audrey makes landfall in TX as Cat 4 in 1957
1964 - one Cat 1 and one Cat 2 make landfall in FL in 1966
1970 - Cat 1 Agnes makes landfall in 1972 but name is retired after doing billions in damage and killing 128 from Gulf Coast to New England
1973 - Cat 3 Eloise makes landfall in 1975 in FL/AL
1988 - no landfalling hurricanes in 1990….hmm
1995 - Cat 1 Danny makes landfall in 1997 on Northern Gulf Coast
1998 - no landfalling hurricanes in 2000
2010 - what will happen in 2012???
2011 - what will happen in 2013???

I have something else you can come up with for 1990 and 2000. In both seasons, they both had K storms that were significant enough to be retired, Klaus in 1990, and Keith in 2000.