When can we expect next named storm in Atlantic?

[jinftl]

As we get set to officially enter the 2012 hurricane season on June 1, we may all need to take a step back and keep in mind that the level of activity we have seen this May is an extreme outlier event and in all likelihood won't continue. In general, June is typically an inactive month - a named storm every other year or so on average.

Per the NHC (see link below), for the period 1966-2009, the average date for 3rd named storm for the season to form in the Atlantic is August 13th.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The season cancel posts will no doubt start by Wednesday if we don't see another system looking likely to develop...but can you really say 'seaon cancel' when the season doesn't start until Friday?

May 2012 has already made this season, or pre-season, memorable. We may very well go another month...or 2...before we get another named storm if we look at the climatology and season history. Even in 2005, we didn't see the C storm until July 3rd!!!

Date "C" storm has formed in the Atlantic by season:
2004 - August 9
2005 - July 3
2006 - July 31
2007 - July 30
2008 - July 18
2009 - August 16
2010 - August 2
2011 - July 20

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time the "C" storm formed in June? (i.e. the 3rd tropical storm, whether named such or not)

In 2006, the effective "C" storm was Beryl due to the unnamed storm.

[ROCK]

actually, that Azores storm a few weeks ago will add to the total at the end of the year. So technically, we are at the "C" storm and waiting on the "D"....


seriously....I dont expect to see anything until end of June and into July.....

[jinftl]

we could easily be wrapping up the July 4th holiday weekend instead of Memorial Day weekend and not have seen another named storm yet - and that wouldn't be unusual....to give some perspective, the C storm in 2004 didn't form until the 2nd week of August. His name was Charley.

We always hear that late summer/early fall are the peak of the season...it is still spring!

actually, that Azores storm a few weeks ago will add to the total at the end of the year. So technically, we are at the "C" storm and waiting on the "D"....


seriously....I dont expect to see anything until end of June and into July.....

[ROCK]

we could easily be wrapping up the July 4th holiday weekend instead of Memorial Day weekend and not have seen another named storm yet - and that wouldn't be unusual....to give some perspective, the C storm in 2004 didn't form until the 2nd week of August. His name was Charley.

We always hear that late summer/early fall are the peak of the season...it is still spring!

actually, that Azores storm a few weeks ago will add to the total at the end of the year. So technically, we are at the "C" storm and waiting on the "D"....


seriously....I dont expect to see anything until end of June and into July.....

agree...time to get some rest because when it gets going there are going to be some long nights.

[CrazyC83]

Really, they found that Azores storm was a tropical cyclone? The February storm might also be one to check into.

[senorpepr]

When was the last time the "C" storm formed in June? (i.e. the 3rd tropical storm, whether named such or not)

In 2006, the effective "C" storm was Beryl due to the unnamed storm.

Here are the five earliest dates for formation of the 3rd named storm:

1. TS Three (1887) -- June 12th
2. HR Three (1959) -- June 18th
3. TS Candy (1968) -- June 23rd
4. HR Three (1936) -- June 26th
5. HR Three (1886); TS Three (1909) -- June 27th

Since 1950, the mean date for the 3rd named storm is August 11. Median date is August 14. Standard Deviation is just shy of 20 days.

[wxman57]

Really, they found that Azores storm was a tropical cyclone? The February storm might also be one to check into.

Not yet, but I think there's a good chance it'll get a post-season upgrade.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Really, they found that Azores storm was a tropical cyclone? The February storm might also be one to check into.

Not yet, but I think there's a good chance it'll get a post-season upgrade.

I respectfully disagree. It didn't sustain convection for at least 12 hours, which is one of the NHC's main criterion for declaring tropical cyclones.

[thundercam96]

What Areas Are Looking At An Above-Average Risk For A Land-falling Tropical Cyclone This Year?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What Areas Are Looking At An Above-Average Risk For A Land-falling Tropical Cyclone This Year?

I would say the Gulf Coast. My best analogue, 2002, had a lot of Gulf Coast hits.

[thundercam96]

What Areas Are Looking At An Above-Average Risk For A Land-falling Tropical Cyclone This Year?

I would say the Gulf Coast. My best analogue, 2002, had a lot of Gulf Coast hits.

Could Florida Have A Increased Threat This Year?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What Areas Are Looking At An Above-Average Risk For A Land-falling Tropical Cyclone This Year?

I would say the Gulf Coast. My best analogue, 2002, had a lot of Gulf Coast hits.

Could Florida Have A Increased Threat This Year?

With close-to-home formations likely, yes.

[northjaxpro]

What Areas Are Looking At An Above-Average Risk For A Land-falling Tropical Cyclone This Year?

I would say the Gulf Coast. My best analogue, 2002, had a lot of Gulf Coast hits.

Could Florida Have A Increased Threat This Year?

We've seen two tropical storms form just off the SE US coast already. These were classic "homegrown" cyclones, with one of those making landfall right over me here in Jax.

So, to answer your question, emphatically YES! We will see more of these homegrown threats to Florida, the SE US coast and the Gulf Coast this season.

[Hurricaneman]

2013 just kidding, my real answer is around June 15th

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I would have to say the middle-latter portions of June. The GFS is already starting to latch onto something getting going then.

[brunota2003]

Florida always has an increased threat

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Watch the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico between June 15-25. We're likely to get another Arlene/Alex scenario.

The GFS still shows the storm in the long-range...it has for the past three days.

[CrazyC83]

I believe June will see one named storm.

[gigabite]

June 29