2012 Tropical Waves

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2012 Tropical Waves

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2012 4:37 pm

Officially,we have the first 2012 Tropical Waves to follow in the North Atlantic basin. :) Both are introduced on the 5/16/12 - 18z Surface Analysis.

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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed May 16, 2012 5:56 pm

I wonder if it's possible that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles will move westward and eventually add energy to potential development in the West Caribbean.
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#3 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 16, 2012 6:03 pm

TAFB 72 hour forecast


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Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu May 17, 2012 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2012 6:29 pm

Is interesting that the first waves introduced this year are one day later than last years one.

May 15 2011 Tropical Wave introduced at 12z.

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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#5 Postby Cyclenall » Wed May 16, 2012 6:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is interesting that the first waves introduced this year are one day later than last years one.

May 15 2011 Tropical Wave introduced at 12z.

Notice how the Epac is basically dead with no ITCZ near Mexico or lows...opposite of this year. For the ITCZ position (in the Atlantic) has there ever been a mean created for the placement during a certain period like May or June? This would visually show how much north or south the ITCZ is compared to normal.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2012 6:58 pm

First Texts from 8:05 PM EDT Discussion for Introduced Tropical Waves

Every discussion of them will be posted until they are gone.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER W AFRICA ALONG 15N9W TO
7N9W CAUSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS W AFRICA. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OVER E
ATLC WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N50W TO 4N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS.
WHILE THE WAVE WAS NOT EASILY IDENTIFIED OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC
WATERS...UPPER AIR TIME SECTIONS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE
THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST AROUND 10/1200 UTC. THE
CURRENT SPEED IS BASED OFF THIS ESTIMATION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL AS TO THE W OF THE AXIS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE
AXIS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FARTHER W NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY INTERACT AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#7 Postby RL3AO » Wed May 16, 2012 8:53 pm

Tropical Waves #1 and #2
Introduced - May 16th 18z

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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2012 5:29 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10W/11W FROM 7N TO 13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND
FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N51W TO 5N53W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
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Re:

#9 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 17, 2012 5:58 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:I wonder if it's possible that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles will move westward and eventually add energy to potential development in the West Caribbean.


More likely the East Pac.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2012 6:39 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11W FROM 6N TO 14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
INLAND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N13W. FROM 8N TO 16N
BETWEEN 10W AND 14W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N52W TO 5N53W MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE IN THE
WATER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2012 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2012 7:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM 16N15W TO 6N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
13W-16W...AND OVER LAND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 11W-14W. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
DEFINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE ATLC
WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 16N56W TO
6N58W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
57W-61W...AND E OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PLACING UNDER THE AREA
OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE. THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SOME OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
GET DRAWN TOWARDS THE NE BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TWO FEATURES
INTERACT...WHICH WILL SHORTEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT
MAY RE-AMPLIFY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH.

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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 18, 2012 5:33 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 13W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W TO 13N59W 8N59W. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATED TO THE
18N59W-TO-NORTHERN GUYANA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
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Re: Here we go! First 2012 North Atlantic Two Tropical Waves

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 18, 2012 11:22 am

One wave is gone.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF 14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 18N52W 13N59W 8N59W FOR THE
18/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS MOVED INLAND IN SOUTH AMERICA...
AND IT IS DIFFUSE FOR THE 18/0600 UTC MAP. SOME OF THE ENERGY
THAT WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE NOW IS MIXED WITH
THE ENERGY OF THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN
THAT AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO LAND BETWEEN 57W
AND 59W.
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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 18, 2012 12:34 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-23W.
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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 18, 2012 7:18 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF W AFRICA FROM
16N-7N ALONG 21W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS WHICH
SHOW THE AREA OF DUST PUSHED TO THE N AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE WAVE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-25W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
8W-17W...BARELY EMERGING OVER WATER.

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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 19, 2012 5:11 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N21W TO 6N25W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 19, 2012 7:01 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N23W TO 6N26W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 19, 2012 1:09 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N23W TO 5N28W MOVING W NEAR 5-10
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED EXCEPT A FEW WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
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Re: First 2012 North Atlantic Tropical Waves (One is gone)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 20, 2012 5:30 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 4N31W MOVING WSW NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
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