Caribbean disturbance

timNms · #1 Postby **timNms** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:17 pm

Anyone besides me watching the Caribbean? Looking interesting. Appears to be a circulation of some sort going on down there. Perhaps there might be something to what some of the models are forcasting for the gulf this weekend. I'll sure be watching it!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

GalvestonDuck · #2 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:22 pm

timNms wrote:Anyone besides me watching the Caribbean? Looking interesting. Appears to be a circulation of some sort going on down there. Perhaps there might be something to what some of the models are forcasting for the gulf this weekend. I'll sure be watching it!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

*pokes Tim*

Where ya been? Wake up!

#3 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:23 pm

Yeah dude, we're watching it alright .... the disturbed weather area is growing in size and scope and it has the attention of most of us GOMers on this board, let alone others.

I'm getting more and more concerned about this system.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:28 pm

yep, we are like bug eyeing this thing :o

Johnny · #5 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:35 pm

Yep, I'm watching it....more so than TD#10 for obvious reasons. The bottom line is I believe something will develop. How strong, when and where are the questions that are lingering right now. Anywhere from the Central Texas Coast to the mouth of the Mississippi need to keep an eye on this one. A few models bring this into Louisiana as a depression or weak storm by Saturday night into Sunday. That makes perfect sense because it did not have alot of time to really develop. A couple other models keep it out into Monday to Tuesday which would mean more strengthening. I don't think this will be the case. Possibley a weak storm or a depression coming onshore anywhere from Freeport, Texas to New Orleans. Take this with a grain of salt. Things could definately change. Let's here some thought on this.

Convection in the NW Caribbean is on the increase.

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 3:41 pm

Johnny, I think this weekend is too soon. It'll take a few days for this one to boil up which is why I'm not so convinced the frontal trough picks it up and whisks it northeast.

As it is, the afternoon forecast discussions in Texas are backing off on frontal passage down to the coast.

Still agree with your area warning though. Anyone from STx to Florida panhandle needs to watch this closely.

stormie_skies · #7 Postby **stormie_skies** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 4:34 pm

Well, I don't know how soon it will develop or how quickly it will move, but it sure is looking more interesting all the time.... :o

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 4:46 pm

There is a very good chance that this wave will become a tropical cyclone before landfall somewhere along the NW GOM coast, probably around Tuesday or Wednesday. The front coming in is expected to reach the coast to the East of the TX/LA area and thus the track most are progging into the TX?LA area. Intensity is the big question with this one and as noted that depends on how long it stays over water among other things. The other possible BIG PROBLEM with this developing system is the probabillity of FLOODING RAINS. As currently progged this will be a slow mover with a possible stall off the coast. If this comes to pass this already moisture laden system will have more time to pick up intensity as well as possibly enhancing its moisture feed. GOMers, especially from NO West definitely need to watch this systems progress!!

deb_in_nc · #9 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Thu Aug 28, 2003 5:32 pm

Local WX said they were watching it too. Said it may soon be a TS.

Debbie

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