why were the past Pacific typhoons seasons more intense?

[bexar]

While I was scanning Unisys over the past Pacific Typhoon season, I noticed that season mostly between 1950s-1990s produced more intense storms in quantity and quality than the 2000s.

since 2000, I think only 1 storm had a pressure (correct me If I'm wrong) below 900 and that was Megi in 2010.

classic typhoons also have much longer periods staying Cat 4/Cat 5 than the recent ones.


what could be the reasons why?

this is also opposite in the Atlantic, seasons 1950-1990 barely produced more than 12 named storms a year, but starting 2000 the average activity seem to have increased?

[StormingB81]

They stopped doing recon. They actually did Recon on Megi. If they still did recon it would be no downfall.

Edit: August 1987 was the last mission

[bexar]

I'm also gonna take this opportunity to ask if were there Typhoons that reached or maintained Cat. 5 status in the South China Sea?

[RL3AO]

I suspect there are some typhoons that would be close if not break Typhoon Tip's pressure if there was recon.

As you said. One storm with a pressure under 900 in the last decade...it just happened to be one of the very few storms that get recon if the need for a scientific mission arises.

[FireRat]

A good example would be November 2009's Supertyphoon Nida, which challenged Tip's record based on the Dvorak T numbers by about 1mb.

This is the storm I'm talking about:

11/25/2009






THAT WAS A BEAST, IMAGINE IF WE HAD RECON IN THIS ONE!

[Hurricanehink]

I'm also gonna take this opportunity to ask if were there Typhoons that reached or maintained Cat. 5 status in the South China Sea?

Yes. Typhoon Ryan in 1996 was the first super typhoon on record to attain that status in the South China Sea. Chanchu in 2006 later accomplished the same feat. However, neither reached 140 kt winds.

[euro6208]

typhoons were more intense in the past because we actually had RECON missions penetrate these monsters but that stopped in august 1987. since then, the only way to determine the intensity is through dvorak estimates which jtwc uses which is mostly on the low side when it comes to powerful typhoons.

however, there were some typhoons that had recon since 1987

Super Typhoon Flo in 1990 had a measured cp of 891

Super Typhoon Jangmi in 2008 had a measured cp of 901

Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 had a measured cp of 890 (landfall at 885 mb) and found winds of 170 to 175 knots 1 minute sustained winds...

if recon had continued, there would be no downfall...

That's why Super Typhoon Tip is still considered the strongest because there is no recon to investigate typhoons anymore while Tip had recon...but there are so many typhoons that are stronger than Tip...

1. Super Typhoon Tip
870 (25.69)
W. Pacific
1979

2. Super Typhoon Joan
872 (25.75)
W. Pacific
1997

2. Super Typhoon Ivan
872 (25.75)
W. Pacific
1997

2. Super Typhoon Gay
872 (25.75)
W. Pacific
1992

3. Super Typhoon Forrest
876 (25.86)
W. Pacific
1983

3. Super Typhoon June
876 (25.86)
W. Pacific
1975

4. Super Typhoon Nora
877 (25.89)
W. Pacific
1973

5. Super Typhoon Damrey
878 (25.92)
W. Pacific
2000

5. Super Typhoon Zeb
878 (25.92)
W. Pacific
1998

5. Super Typhoon Keith
878 (25.92)
W. Pacific
1997

5. Super Typhoon Yvette
878 (25.92)
W. Pacific
1992

5. Super Typhoon Rita
878 (25.92)
W. Pacific
1978

6. Super Typhoon Chaba
879 (25.95)
W. Pacific
2004

7. Super Typhoon Faxai
879 (25.95)
W. Pacific
2001

8. Super Typhoon Angela
879 (25.95)
W. Pacific
1995

8. Super Typhoon Vanessa
879 (25.95)
W. Pacific
1984

9. Hurricane Wilma
882 (26.05)
2005

9. Super Typhoon Nancy
882 (26.05)
W. Pacific
1961

9. Super Typhoon Violet
882 (26.05)
W. Pacific
1961

10. Super Typhoon Irma
884 (26.11)
W. Pacific
1971

11. Super Typhoon Dianmu
885 (26.14)
W. Pacific
2004

11. Super Typhoon Maemi
885 (26.14)
W. Pacific
2003

11. Super Typhoon Yuri
885 (26.14)
W. Pacific
1991

11. Super Typhoon Mike
885 (26.14)
W. Pacific
1990

12. Super Typhoon SS Arethusa
886 (26.16)
W. Pacific
1900

13. Super Typhoon Judy
887 (26.18)
W. Pacific
1979

13. Super Typhoon SS Sapoeroea
887 (26.18)
W. Pacific
1927

14. Hurricane Gilbert
888 (26.22)
Caribbean
1988

14. Super Typhoon Abby
888 (26.22)
W. Pacific
1983

15. Super Typhoon Wynne
890 (26.27)
W. Pacific
1980

15. Super Typhoon Elsie
890 (26.27)
W. Pacific
1969

15. Super Typhoon Gilda
890 (26.27)
W. Pacific
1967

16. Super Typhoon Lupit
891 (26.30)
W. Pacific
2003

16. Super Typhoon Flo
891 (26.30)
W. Pacific
1990

16. Super Typhoon Betty
891 (26.30)
W. Pacific
1987

16. Super Typhoon Nina
891 (26.30)
W. Pacific
1987

16. Super Typhoon Joan
891 (26.30)
W. Pacific
1959

16. Cyclone SS Duke of York
891 (26.30)
Bay of Bengal
1833

17. Super Typhoon Isa
892 (26.35)
W. Pacific
1997

17. Super Typhoon Ginger
892 (26.35)
W. Pacific
1997

17. Super Typhoon Elsie
892 (26.35)
W. Pacific
1992

17. Super Typhoon Ruth
892 (26.35)
W. Pacific
1991

17. Labor Day Hurricane
892 (26.35)
Long Key, Florida
1935

18. Super Typhoon Elysie
893 (26.37)
W. Pacific
1981

18. Super Typhoon Patsy
893 (26.37)
W. Pacific
1973

19. Super Typhoon Sally
894 (26.39)
W. Pacific
1964

20. Super Typhoon Mac
895 (26.39)
W. Pacific
1982

20. Super Typhoon Louise
895 (26.42)
W. Pacific
1976

20. Super Typhoon Amy
895 (26.42)
W. Pacific
1971

20. Super Typhoon Hope
895 (26.42)
W. Pacific
1970

21. Super Typhoon Marge
896 (26.45)
W. Pacific
1983

21. Super Typhoon Vera
896 (26.45)
W. Pacific
1959

22. Hurricane Rita
897 (26.48)
Gulf of Mexico
2005

22. Super Typhoon Dot
897 (26.48)
W. Pacific
1985

22. Super Typhoon Viola
897 (26.48)
W. Pacific
1969

22. Super Typhoon Karen
897 (26.48)
W. Pacific
1962

23. Super Typhoon Ma-On
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2004

23. Super Typhoon Nida
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2004

23. Super Typhoon Hary
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2002

23. Super Typhoon Podul
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2001

24. Super Typhoon Saomai
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2000

24. Super Typhoon Bilis
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
2000

24. Super Typhoon Bart
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1999

24. Super Typhoon Oliwa
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1997

24. Super Typhoon Winnie
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1997

24. Super Typhoon Rosie
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1997

24. Super Typhoon Nestor
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1997

24. Super Typhoon Dale
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1996

24. Super Typhoon Sally
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1996

24. Super Typhoon Herb
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1996

24. Super Typhoon Eve
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1996

24. Super Typhoon Ward
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1995

24. Super Typhoon Oscar
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1995

24. Super Typhoon Kent
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1995

24. Super Typhoon Doug
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1994

24. Super Typhoon Ed
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1993

24. Super Typhoon Walt
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1991

24. Super Typhoon Owen
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1990

24. Super Typhoon Page
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1990

24. Super Typhoon Nima
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1989

24. Super Typhoon Elsie
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1989

24. Super Typhoon Gordon
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1989

24. Super Typhoon Andy
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1989

24. Super Typhoon Nelson
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1988

24. Super Typhoon Lynn
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1987

24. Super Typhoon Holly
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1987

24. Super Typhoon Hope
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1979

24. Super Typhoon Nadine
898 (26.51)
W. Pacific
1971

25. Hurricane Allen
899 (26.54)
Caribbean
1980

26. Hurricane Linda
900 (26.58)
E. Pacific
1997

26. Super Typhoon Progy
900 (26.58)
W. Pacific
1986


we can clearly see so many typhoons that peaked below 900 and and near Tip's record. if we had recon, this list would change every year...and new strongest tropical cyclone would change too...

[Aslkahuna]

Going to add one to the list above:
STY IDA
877 mb
1956

Undobtedly more of those prior to 1959 when the JTWC ATCRs started coming out. STY Wilma in 1951 took out a recon plane so it was probably in the low 900 to upper 800 mb range and Halsey's Typhoon in 1944 was apparently below 900 mb when he ran the US Fleet into it and a 1920's storm near the Philippines had an 886mb pressure measured by a ship that managed to survive.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

Another correction: Hurricane Rita (2005) lowest pressure was 895mb.

[wxman57]

There are other factors possibly involved here. For example, the average number of named storms is up in the Atlantic for several reasons not related to an actual increase in activity. First of all, the NHC is now naming subtropical cyclones. Secondly, there is most definitely a more liberal naming policy than existed prior to the last 10 years or so. Third, modern satellite has allowed for the identification for systems outside recon range. Those 3 issues alone may account for an additional 2-4 named storms per year in the last 10 years.

Another factor may be the start of the warm AMO in 1995. The Atlantic became much more active during this warm cycle. Typically, such an increase in the Atlantic corresponds to somewhat of a decrease in other basins. The last warm AMO was from 1926-1969. Be very wary of the best track database prior to the late 1980s (era of modern recon and more modern satellite), though. And you can't trust the TC numbers in the pre-satellite era (before the 1970s). Sure, ships at sea helped to identify many of the TCs, but many TCs were likely missed, particularly short-lived storms in areas with little ship traffic.

Finally, with the lack of recon in other basins in recent decades, we really can't be sure of the central pressures of those TCs. The use of Dvorak without any "ground truth" could lead to substantial errors in pressure and wind estimation.

[Ptarmigan]

There are other factors possibly involved here. For example, the average number of named storms is up in the Atlantic for several reasons not related to an actual increase in activity. First of all, the NHC is now naming subtropical cyclones. Secondly, there is most definitely a more liberal naming policy than existed prior to the last 10 years or so. Third, modern satellite has allowed for the identification for systems outside recon range. Those 3 issues alone may account for an additional 2-4 named storms per year in the last 10 years.

Another factor may be the start of the warm AMO in 1995. The Atlantic became much more active during this warm cycle. Typically, such an increase in the Atlantic corresponds to somewhat of a decrease in other basins. The last warm AMO was from 1926-1969. Be very wary of the best track database prior to the late 1980s (era of modern recon and more modern satellite), though. And you can't trust the TC numbers in the pre-satellite era (before the 1970s). Sure, ships at sea helped to identify many of the TCs, but many TCs were likely missed, particularly short-lived storms in areas with little ship traffic.

Finally, with the lack of recon in other basins in recent decades, we really can't be sure of the central pressures of those TCs. The use of Dvorak without any "ground truth" could lead to substantial errors in pressure and wind estimation.

That is why I have said that there are seasons comparable to even more active than 2005. Notably 1887, 1933, and possibly 1936 season.

[euro6208]

gosh all of these numbers making me dizzy! crazy west pacific!

[euro6208]

3. Super Typhoon June
876 (25.86)
W. Pacific
1975


looks like a mistake. it is 875 mb not 876...

i noticed alot of mistakes in this list which i got from weather underground...shame on them lol...

[RL3AO]

i noticed alot of mistakes in this list which i got from weather underground...shame on them lol...

Wikipedia is a very good source for tropical cyclones. They have a very hard working group of people (including people on this forum) who make the TC related pages high quality and well sourced.

[Dean_175]

reason 1: the water temperature there is warmer
reason 2: monsoon troughs can spin up multiple tropical cyclones.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Super Typhoon Haiyan [Yolanda] was given 170 kts by the JTWC and was 858 mbar/hPa in the Dvorak scale.

895 hPa was given by the JMA, making it the eighth most intense tropical cyclone in the WPAC in terms of pressure. Because wind estimates before the 60's were too high [exaggerated], Haiyan marks as the most intense storm in history in terms of 1-minute sustained winds and these were the winds when it made landfall over the southern tip of Guiuan.

[euro6208]

Like i said, We need to start recon in this basin after 26 years especially after haiyan. It's really a blow to meteorology. Imagine all the valuable and priceless data that can be studied and obtained for future generations. There is no limit over here...Instead we are stuck with the worldwide belief that no other TC can be stronger than Tip based on central pressure and stronger than 165 knots. Multiple typhoons have changed that belief.

Huge lost over the past years...

[CrazyC83]

Super Typhoon Haiyan [Yolanda] was given 170 kts by the JTWC and was 858 mbar/hPa in the Dvorak scale.

895 hPa was given by the JMA, making it the eighth most intense tropical cyclone in the WPAC in terms of pressure. Because wind estimates before the 60's were too high [exaggerated], Haiyan marks as the most intense storm in history in terms of 1-minute sustained winds and these were the winds when it made landfall over the southern tip of Guiuan.

Haiyan probably set a world record for maximum sustained winds (at least in the satellite era) as it busted the Dvorak scale, and might have even been worthy of T8.5. However, I highly doubt that it beat Tip's pressure, as it was smaller and lower in latitude. The peak intensity was likely a few hours before first landfall, but it was still INCREDIBLY strong at the landfalls - probably a world record for landfalls as well.

[Alyono]

who will pay for the recon?

[euro6208]

who will pay for the recon?

Japan and USA with shared contributions from other asian nations or maybe rotate a list of countries to donate every 2 years.