Question about Hurricane Models and 92L/93L

[DreamworksSKG]

I noticed from observation over the last 5 years or so that certain models are more effective than others when forecasting the direction hurricanes will go

For example I notice the BAMM is usually a bit too far left of the track or right of the track, at least far out in the forecast model run , closer in to land fall it gets more accurate

BAMM D appears to be the strongest model in the BAMM category

HWRF, TVCC,, SHIP, LBAR, and GFDL all do a good job with far out tracks

TVCC and HWRF seem to be the best so far over the last few yrs

GFDL can be good at times but is usually better closer in toward the coastlines

NOGAPS seems to be better closer to the coast as well, it seems to exaggerate track at times.

Same with AVI

CLIPS always eems to curve too far out---early on

NOGAPS seems to always steer storms too far south
but sometimes NOGAPS is right it depends ont he situation

ALso which of the AP model #'s are most accurate? I think the earlier AP Numbers are more accurate than the higher #'s AP5-7 seem to be more accurate.

Any reasoning as to why certain models exaggerate track

and others like HWRF and TVCC are the most accurate?

Thanks

Also this current storm, 92 L it seems that the track is trending west each day, should that be a concern for the East coast?
and here in Boston?

93 L seems to be even further south meaning it could be an East coast storm? 93 L looks like it might be the big story in a week or so

[artist]

Dreamworks, here is a good thread to look at regarding the models tha ALHurricane put together for us awhile back -
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
Hope this helps explain the models and their use better for you.