Pouch P15L- SE of CV Islands (Is invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

Let's see down the road how this one evolves..

[Vortex]

If the GFS is right this is the one kept at low latitudes and all the way to mexico on the 6z....

[AJC3]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with this wave. I have a feeling that 92L will be a "sacrificial lamb" of sorts, leading the way through the SAL and moistening the MDR in the process and making for a more favorable air mass for this trailing wave.

[cycloneye]

Agree Tony that this one has a better chance with the help of the frontrunner 92L.

Outerbanker,this is the wave GFS had as a hurricane off Carolinas and then did the swing to Texas on next run.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cyloneye, when do you think that this big wave could be labelled as a pouch?

[cycloneye]

You can track the 12z GFS until the GOM but doesn't go bonkers with it. What I notice is very low pressures in the Caribbean and MDR as advertised by ECMWF.

12z GFS Loop

[cycloneye]

Hey Cyloneye, when do you think that this big wave could be labelled as a pouch?

That is up to the predict folks to decide as they look at the data when is going to be a pouch in this case will be P15L.

[Vortex]

This is the one I think we need to really watch...

[Gustywind]

Hey Cyloneye, when do you think that this big wave could be labelled as a pouch?

That is up to the predict folks to decide as they look at the data when is going to be a pouch in this case will be P15L.

Thanks i appreciate.

[Gustywind]

Why the litle has changed?

[Gustywind]

M. Ressler, The Weather Channel

Aug 7, 2011 4:55 pm ET


Tropics Watch: Daily map analysis

ATLANTIC BASIN

Another tropical wave is evident over western Africa and should emerge over the far eastern Atlantic within a couple of days. It already has some well-defined spin and thunderstorm activity, and some models suggest eventual development is possible over the tropical Atlantic during the next week, but it is too soon to be confident on whether that will actually occur.

[cycloneye]

Why the litle has changed?

Modified title to reflect wave that is not as huge as first thought by looking at recent sat pics like the one at first post.Circulation is at the southern end of wave. As soon the predict team designates it as a pouch,I will again modify the title.

[Gustywind]

Why the litle has changed?

Modified title to reflect wave that is not as huge as first thought by looking at recent sat pics like the one at first post. As soon the predict team designates it as a pouch,)I will again modify the title.

Ok thanks Cycloneye, i was wondering if another twave were appearing on Africa

[AJC3]

It appears as if that large outflow boundary "snowplowing" it's way through Mali/Burkina Faso/Cote D'Ivoire is associated with a decent easterly speed surge. It looks like it will probably ram into the broad area of vorticity associated with the t-wave off the African coast.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears as if that large outflow boundary "snowplowing" it's way through Mali/Burkina Faso/Cote D'Ivoire is associated with a decent easterly speed surge. It looks like it will probably ram into the broad area of vorticity associated with the t-wave off the African coast.

exactly. we see it a couple times a year were a system like 92l will sit basically in place just off the african coast and not develop till the energy from the trailing wave begins to over run it.

[leaf blower]

The Cape Verde season about to kick off, Plenty more action heading West across Africa

http://www.sat24.com/af

[cycloneye]

The wave in front ex 92L also known as Pouch P14L has moisten the air in a big way that this wave emerging can avoid the dry air.



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[cycloneye]

This thing behind ex 92L has a nice circulation. I say is a thing because it has not been designated yet as a pouch or a wave.

[Blown Away]

I agree Luis, ex-92L has moistened its path, exiting Africa at a bit higher latitude, some model support w/ possible building BH, and already has a cyclonic spin. Bold prediction, this area will become Franklin, brush the Caribbean, and landfall in the CONUS as a hurricane, of course this is only my opinion.

[BigA]

Not sure which area they are developing (EX 92L or this), but the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS all like developing something out of the eastern Atlantic to various degrees in the next week. Looking more closely, it looks like the GFS develops Ex 92L and the CMC develops this area.

The weather channel guy said that the sounding from west Africa showed that this wave did not have as impressive a signature in the atmosphere as Ex 92L, but not having firsthand access to the data, I don't put a great deal of stock in that by itself.