Just a mass of T-storms from a Twave but it's gotten farther north than I thought it would and and does have a yellow circle from NHC so I guess it deserves it's own thread.
Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
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Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
If this has a thread already, feel free to wipe it off.
Just a mass of T-storms from a Twave but it's gotten farther north than I thought it would and and does have a yellow circle from NHC so I guess it deserves it's own thread.
Just a mass of T-storms from a Twave but it's gotten farther north than I thought it would and and does have a yellow circle from NHC so I guess it deserves it's own thread.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
850 mb voricity is a little old but to my eyes, they should a least some north of Honduras.
this wave shoud slow down a little before it reaches the Yucatan might have to up it to 5%
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
I can't believe the NHC did not increase this to at least 5%, comon man
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
Actually, the NHC only does their predictions in increments of 10%.
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vbhoutex
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
I'm not surprised with the 0% due to the closeness to land. If most of the vorticity gets N of the coast however, I think it will be another ballgame.
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
Hurricanehink wrote:Actually, the NHC only does their predictions in increments of 10%.
Yeah I know I'm just trying to pump the little guy up, with 91L getting all the attention. But along the North central coast of Honduras I see a small eddy racing off to the west, probably rotating around the monsoon trough down there.
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Florida1118
Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
This basically sums it up. From Dr.Masters;
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
hello everyone. im brand new here, very happy to be here! with that said i must say the carribean doesnt seem to be getting the attention it deserves. wonder if nhc wiill promote a 30% chance or better later. been watching sat loops all day.looks better for development to me. im here on texas coast life-long resident. i cant help but see this system not developing. can anyone provide some details on this area?
Last edited by underthwx on Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
Depends on where it goes, it could be tagged as Invest 92L.
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Florida1118
Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
Ptarmigan wrote:Depends on where it goes, it could be tagged as Invest 92L.
They've tagged 0%'s before...
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vbhoutex
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
underthwx wrote::flag: hello everyone. im brand new here, very happy to be here! with that aside i must say the carribean doesnt seem to be getting the attention it deserves. wonder if nhc wiill promote a 30% chance or better later. been watching sat loops all day.looks better for development to me. im here on texas coast life-long resident. i cant help but see this system not developing. can anyone provide some details on this area?
Welcome to S2K. We look forward to your posts, especially since you've been around tropical weather for all your life.
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Re: Cluster in Caribbean 7-30-2011
Im gonna keep this alive.....sat loop looks interesting.....persisting.......need rain here in Tx.......
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