12z-GFS

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_084l.gif

[Stormchaser16]

Similar to the EC as of now

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_102l.gif

[ameriwx2003]

I have to concede to wxman57 about the GFS lately I think lol.. Just the Eastern Caribbean system itself it has been waffling about strength and its really changed its tune about the big CV wave as well:):)

[Stormchaser16]

I'll do ya one better.......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

[Stormchaser16]

To me this is still an interesting setup........Regardless of strength of the system(of course that is yet to be determined) the setup is still there for an east coast hitter.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif

You can see your stalled front easily there, and then the tropical system(fabio/or what is there of it) NE of Puerto Rico.

STILL an interesting picture

[Stormchaser16]

As of hour 162.......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

It does deepen it a little bit... and its movement is to the NE.

Interesting indeed....Front STILL over land

[Tip]

Only impact to CONUS on the 12Z GFS is wave near PR and Dominica affecting the panahandle of FLA.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes the 12Z GFS does strengthen the wave near the DR now as it gets into the Gulf. Its been going back and forth on strength so the 18Z run may well show no closed low at all from this system:)::). For now though the track is an interesting one:):) and would bring alot of rain to Florida:):). We shall see. I am going to wait and see lol.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

[Stormchaser16]

The 12z GFS moves the system over Nova Scotia as it becomes extra tropica, or whatever left of it becomes extra tropical, it does pick up alot of moisture and deluges Nova Scotia.

There is a system its developing Near Florida, that moves up along the front, and becomes entrained in it.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

It continues the MAJOR flooding threat to the Midatlantic thru New England from the beginning of September right through the middle of September. NOW..... heres the interesting thing, if this tropical system in the atlantic moves anymore westward then is being shown....... THEN we would have a major major headache....... a low developing along the southern axis of a frontal boundary, a strong upper level low spinning in the interior Northeast, and the remnants of what was a tropical system.... UH OH

[Stormchaser16]

This is what I am talking about Ameriwx, it develops that wave, moves it along the axis of the trough and up the stalled frontal boundary, collides it with an upper level low in the interior northeast... look ahead to 252 ameriwx, and u see a pretty scary setup...... if the remnants of the CV tropical system were to engage in all of this then we could see a pretty harsh setup affecting portions of the Midatlantic and major effects in the New england area........remember, they do have a northern bias

[alicia-w]

Only impact to CONUS on the 12Z GFS is wave near PR and Dominica affecting the panahandle of FLA.

Do you mean the Panhandle or the peninsula, because I'm not sure how weather in PR can effect the Panhandle...........

[Stormchaser16]

The wave near PR develops and moves towards the Florida peninsula

[ameriwx2003]

Storm... Yes, the track of this system could be a real headache all along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida North. Even if it doesn't develope it sure does look like whatever moisture/energy is in the Gulf will get entrained and funneled up the East Coast. Lets see what happens:):)

[ameriwx2003]

Alicia.. The GFS developes the wave moves it across Florida and slowly moves North, then Ne back across Florida. We shall see how this all plays out:):). I have jumped on previous systems that where supposed to develope and they didn't . I am being cautious with this one, which probably means this is a system that will develope lol.

[Colin]

We really need to keep an eye on this...I'm in East Central PA where we DON'T need the rain! :o Keep us updated guys!!

[Stormchaser16]

Upon further analysis........

What we really need to wait for.... is to see how strong this CV system gets.... if it remains weak, then it would most likely push under the high that is over us right now(this high will push off the coast as the trough comes in).IF it becomes stronger then the high will most likely push it out to sea. As for the gulf system potential, even if the system isnt tropical as it moves along the stalled front, it would appear that there is still enough moisture there to cause big headaches. Right now im not making any final calls because there are too many variables in this quite complicated setup.

[Stephanie]

Yes the 12Z GFS does strengthen the wave near the DR now as it gets into the Gulf. Its been going back and forth on strength so the 18Z run may well show no closed low at all from this system:)::). For now though the track is an interesting one:):) and would bring alot of rain to Florida:):). We shall see. I am going to wait and see lol.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

It looks like there's a blip in the maps between hours 216 & 240. The system looks like it retrogrades from up by Nova Scotia down to the MidAtlantic.

[Stormchaser16]

Well.......... look closely, see that strong low coming up the coast? That continues to move up between 216 and 240, the CV storm is well racing off to the NE at this point and you can see that evidenced as the 1016 low off of nova scotia......

[ameriwx2003]

Stephanie. Here is a better view in 12 hour intervals of what the GFS is doing for the 12Z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml