Real Wx Services - 2011 Hurricane Prediction

[Blown Away]

The big unknown is will we see more ridging in the Atlantic to drive the storms farther west?

http://theweathergod2010.blogspot.com/p ... inary.html

[wxman57]

We still have 2008 as the best analog year. Latest Euro July-September forecast indicates a good bit stronger Bermuda High in 2011 vs. 2010.

[MGC]

2008? Ike and Gustav....Gulf coast had better be prepared.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

I'm sorry, but I don't trust someone's predictions concerning Hurricane Season much when they don't even know when it is.

Hurricane season is just around the corner beginning in the month of May going thru the month of November.

That is a quote directly off their site. I read through some of the "prediction" and I don't think I will put much credence in it. JMHO

[NDG]

These people or person at that site is a joke, IMO.

I am going to quote a few things they say that I strongly disagree with besides them saying that the Atlantic hurricane season starts in May, lol:

this latest winter was still acting more like an El Nino ..then La Nina (until Feb 2011) even though this was a La Nina winter.

If El Nino had a lagging time through this past winter why was hurricane season '10 so active? lol
Why would they think that it acted like El Nino, because it was so cold in the deep south December and January? It had nothing to do with ENSO, to some extent, it had to do with a combination of a negative AO & NAO and at times a positive PNA with bended the jetstream on netative tilt towards the SW US which brought overunning situation to the deep south with the shallow cold air in place. And I ask them, have they looked at a precip map lately of how dry of a winter the southern half of the US has had? With some places 4" to 12" below average for the winter, that is not an El Nino winter.

So, what we have done for this preliminary outlook is we have gone back and looked at the El Nino winter years that had then transitioned to a La Nina for the summer. When we did this we came across the following years..
1 1963-64
2. 1973-74
3. 1987-88
4. 1997-98
5. 2009-2010
From there we have narrowed down the list above to only include those years that we had a Negative PDO and a Positive AMO. When we do this we come down to the years of 1964, 1998, 2010. So these would be the two analog years that we are using for the 2011-2012 hurricane season

2010 as an analog year for the 2011 hurricane season? You have to be kidding me, lol.
Would somebody tell them please them please that we did not have an El Nino in the Pacific this past winter, please! lol

I agree with wxman57, 2008 is a good analog year, I may also include 1996 into the mix.

[wxman57]

The person running that site appears to be a high school graduate in his 40s who is thinking about attending college in a few years. He became interested in the weather in 1988 and it's just his hobby. There really isn't much of a forecast there, just some observations. Take it for what it is...

[fwbbreeze]

Hey "Great One" is that you? I dont trust that site at all!

[cycloneye]

I think I better wait for the real experts like Klotzbach,Gray,JB and the folks of TSR and NOAA.

[Hurricane Jed]

Strange article. Probably be as reliable as me doing a rain dance. Lol.

[Ptarmigan]

These people or person at that site is a joke, IMO.

I am going to quote a few things they say that I strongly disagree with besides them saying that the Atlantic hurricane season starts in May, lol:

this latest winter was still acting more like an El Nino ..then La Nina (until Feb 2011) even though this was a La Nina winter.

If El Nino had a lagging time through this past winter why was hurricane season '10 so active? lol
Why would they think that it acted like El Nino, because it was so cold in the deep south December and January? It had nothing to do with ENSO, to some extent, it had to do with a combination of a negative AO & NAO and at times a positive PNA with bended the jetstream on netative tilt towards the SW US which brought overunning situation to the deep south with the shallow cold air in place. And I ask them, have they looked at a precip map lately of how dry of a winter the southern half of the US has had? With some places 4" to 12" below average for the winter, that is not an El Nino winter.

So, what we have done for this preliminary outlook is we have gone back and looked at the El Nino winter years that had then transitioned to a La Nina for the summer. When we did this we came across the following years..
1 1963-64
2. 1973-74
3. 1987-88
4. 1997-98
5. 2009-2010
From there we have narrowed down the list above to only include those years that we had a Negative PDO and a Positive AMO. When we do this we come down to the years of 1964, 1998, 2010. So these would be the two analog years that we are using for the 2011-2012 hurricane season

2010 as an analog year for the 2011 hurricane season? You have to be kidding me, lol.
Would somebody tell them please them please that we did not have an El Nino in the Pacific this past winter, please! lol

I agree with wxman57, 2008 is a good analog year, I may also include 2006 into the mix.

What was he smoking? 2010 was La Nina, not El Nino. I always thought 2010's analog year were 1995, 1998, and 1999.

[vbhoutex]

Hey "Great One" is that you? I dont trust that site at all!

That was the first thing that entered my mind when I started reading the site!!

[Pearl River]

If I read correctly, what he is saying is that 2009 was an El Nino winter that transitioned to a La Nina summer in 2010, not that we had an El Nino winter in 2010 and that the three years of 1964, 1998, and 2010 had a Negative PDO and Positive AMO, where the other years he uses did not. But then again, what do I know.

[Blown Away]

LOL, great replies! Yes, not a professional assessment, but something to look at while we wait.

[OuterBanker]

Me, I'm waiting for the one that predicts based on sunspots

[atownwxwatcher]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

The reason May was used is because if you notice the image above which is from NOAA..then you will see that May 1st named systems have in the past been occurring and they increase as we get closer to June and then increase even more after June.
Technically speaking you can have tropical systems at any time of the year and they do not have to fall in between June -Nov or even May to Nov.

For example:
Hurricane Alice Dec 31 1954
March 7th 1908 in the Atlantic..

Now the winter of 2009-2010 was the El Nino winter . However we then transitioned to a La Nina Summer and then the winter of 2010-2011 was a La Nina Winter. This all was actually stated .
So pearl river whom replied in the response above actually did indeed read correctly..

Now the reason why it was said that the La Nina winter was acting more like a " el nino" is because in your typical La Nina from about PA to the southeast and south central your temperatures are warmer then normal. The outcome of this past winter was anything BUT warm. Matter of fact it was below normal for over half of the country including the Southeast. In a El Nino winter unless it is super strong (though even here there is exceptions) temperatures in the same region have an equal chance at being above or below.

Just because it responded more "El Nino like" in a particular region does not mean it had to have those same characteristics with every aspect of the winter. For example precipitation was more LA Nina like across the SE.
Interestingly enough I get comments here saying its not really a forecast...and then i come across Ryan Maue site who i very much respect and have learned a great deal from and find his forecast is in the same range as what I forecasted.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes/index.php

17 Named storms with 9 hurricanes!