Favorite NHC Adv./Adv. Quote

[Florida1118]

Well looking back at the Adv (You can re-read them at the NHC Adv. Archive-http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/index.shtml)

My 2 Favorite quotes were From the Julia and Gaston Adv.s...

Julia, Adv. #13-"A RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS WAS
MOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE."

Gaston, Adv #1- "HOWEVER...A QUICK DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LIKELY."

And then the Limited Humor of them...However Im not sure which Storm they said somthing like "The storm, not the forecaster, has dissipated" or somthing to that effect. What Storm was that from, and what was your Favorite Adv. and/or Quote?

[Iune]

Well looking back at the Adv (You can re-read them at the NHC Adv. Archive-http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/index.shtml)

My 2 Favorite quotes were From the Julia and Gaston Adv.s...

Julia, Adv. #13-"A RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS WAS
MOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE."

Gaston, Adv #1- "HOWEVER...A QUICK DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LIKELY."

And then the Limited Humor of them...However Im not sure which Storm they said somthing like "The storm, not the forecaster, has dissipated" or somthing to that effect. What Storm was that from, and what was your Favorite Adv. and/or Quote?

Tropical Storm Franklin in 2005.

ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.

Tropical Storm Odile (2008; EPac) after reconnaissance on its way to Hurricane Norbert discovered that Odile had in fact not made landfall in Mexico and dissipated.

[Migle]

I always liked the last advisory of 2005...

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

[TheEuropean]

EPSILON is my favorite:

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

WTNT44 KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 31
Statement as of 10:00 PM EST on December 06, 2005

the end is in sight. It really really is. But in the meantime...
Epsilon continues to maintain hurricane status.

Forecaster Franklin

WTNT44 KNHC 070832
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT44 KNHC 081429
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

Does the reason Epsilon did not weaken due to the wind shear have to do with the fact the convective storms did not reach nearly as high as normal, therefore staying below the layer of shear?

[TheEuropean]

Does the reason Epsilon did not weaken due to the wind shear have to do with the fact the convective storms did not reach nearly as high as normal, therefore staying below the layer of shear?

That's right. But it's a fact that is not well-known.

[HurricaneBill]

I can't remember the exact quotes, but from 2005:

Emily: "Climatology does not support this, but so far, the 2005 season shows no interest in climatology."

Vince: "If it looks like a hurricane, it must be a hurricane."

Humberto (2007) : "It would be nice to know why this happened." (in regards to Humberto's rapid intensification)

[FrontRunner]

I always liked the last advisory of 2005...

I'm totally with you on that one. I get goosebumps every time I read it, and you can sense the fatigue that the NHC was feeling after such a extreme season. It reminds me of how unbelievable it was to have followed along with a season that contained such a monumental combination of numbers, intensity, and devastation, which will likely never be seen again in our lifetimes.

[CrazyC83]

I always liked the last advisory of 2005...

I'm totally with you on that one. I get goosebumps every time I read it, and you can sense the fatigue that the NHC was feeling after such a extreme season. It reminds me of how unbelievable it was to have followed along with a season that contained such a monumental combination of numbers, intensity, and devastation, which will likely never be seen again in our lifetimes.

Recent seasons have had things that even 2005 was missing:

*There were no pre-season storms in 2005 like in 2007 and 2008. As a result, there were no early alarm bells.

*2005 did not have a June hurricane like 2010 did. As a result, it took a little longer to get worried, but all heck broke loose in July.

*2005 did not have a November major hurricane like 2008 did (nor did it have a November Gulf storm like 2009 did). No late-season hurricane fatigue threats there (like if a November major was threatening).

*2005 did not have a distant major hurricane like 2009 and 2010 both did. While that would have little land impact, it would add even more to a record.

[HurricaneBill]

*2005 did not have a distant major hurricane like 2009 and 2010 both did. While that would have little land impact, it would add even more to a record.

Hurricane Maria was briefly a major.

[CrazyC83]

*2005 did not have a distant major hurricane like 2009 and 2010 both did. While that would have little land impact, it would add even more to a record.

Hurricane Maria was briefly a major.

It wasn't anywhere near where Fred or Julia became majors though. Maria was more of a weaker Danielle, and major hurricanes in the 45-60W region are not uncommon.

[HurricaneBill]

*2005 did not have a distant major hurricane like 2009 and 2010 both did. While that would have little land impact, it would add even more to a record.

Hurricane Maria was briefly a major.

It wasn't anywhere near where Fred or Julia became majors though. Maria was more of a weaker Danielle, and major hurricanes in the 45-60W region are not uncommon.

True. Also, you brought up another interesting point about the 2005 season: The deep tropics remained unfavorable for development the whole time.

I was also surprised that he EPAC was as active as it was. Given how active the Atlantic was, I figured the EPAC would have had a season more like 2010.

[CrazyC83]

We can only imagine what 2005 would have been like if the deep tropics were as favorable as in 2010, while the rest of the Atlantic was also hyper-favorable like it was in actuality? Instead of weak waves or depressions reaching around 60W, we'd have storms that were already major hurricanes at that point. Would they weaken and not do much by the time they got to land, or would we have had more Katrinas from systems that turned out to be nothing more than waves?

The Lesser Antilles were generally spared the worst of the 2005 season, except for Emily in Grenada (a Category 1 at the time).

[Ptarmigan]

Recent seasons have had things that even 2005 was missing:

*There were no pre-season storms in 2005 like in 2007 and 2008. As a result, there were no early alarm bells.

*2005 did not have a June hurricane like 2010 did. As a result, it took a little longer to get worried, but all heck broke loose in July.

*2005 did not have a November major hurricane like 2008 did (nor did it have a November Gulf storm like 2009 did). No late-season hurricane fatigue threats there (like if a November major was threatening).

*2005 did not have a distant major hurricane like 2009 and 2010 both did. While that would have little land impact, it would add even more to a record.

2005 was an interesting season. Not too many Cape Verde storms like 1995 and 2010. 1933 lacked Cape Verde storms, but there were no satellites back than, so there could be Cape Verde storms. I noticed 2005 storms formed closer to land and often in the Caribbean. Also, there were monsoonal troughs in 2005 and 2010.

[cheezyWXguy]

We can only imagine what 2005 would have been like if the deep tropics were as favorable as in 2010, while the rest of the Atlantic was also hyper-favorable like it was in actuality? Instead of weak waves or depressions reaching around 60W, we'd have storms that were already major hurricanes at that point. Would they weaken and not do much by the time they got to land, or would we have had more Katrinas from systems that turned out to be nothing more than waves?

The Lesser Antilles were generally spared the worst of the 2005 season, except for Emily in Grenada (a Category 1 at the time).

If the storms had formed further out, there most likely would have been more recurves than were seen in actuality. The fact that the waves were able to maintain just enough to stay together to reach the hyper-favorable conditions of the western atlantic probably proved a worst-case scenario for the US/ Latin america

[Sihara]

I always liked the last advisory of 2005...

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

That was definitely my favorite - thanks for posting it. I'd saved it to my (previous) laptop, but lost it due to a crash. As a subsequent poster noted, you really could hear the fatigue with that sign-off, a measure of how extraordinary 2005 actually was.

[curtadams]

On TS Franklin 2005:

FRANKLIN - THE STORM, NOT THE FORECASTER - HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT

[vacanechaser]

1999 - Floyd

RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND GPS DROPS IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT 135
KNOTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE
PRESSURE IS 921 MB WHICH CORRELATES WITH 140 KNOTS...AND THE
HURRICANE COULD EVEN GET A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER 135 KNOTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES
ATTENTION.

LAWRENCE

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

or 2005: Dennis

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED
A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. FORECASTER STEWART

then very next advisory:

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11
MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. FORECASTER BEVEN

good stuff by to of the best


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Hurricane_Luis]

My favorite was when TD 12 formed just a few hours ago.

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...