Here is the first salvo so to speak for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season by the folks of Tropical Storm Risk.The skills to forecast so early are not great and they admit it in their forecast,but is always interesting to see how the different forecasters see what are the factors that will lead to another active season in 2011.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
TSR 2011 forecasts (August is up)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
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TSR 2011 forecasts (August is up)
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frigidice77
2011 may be the season we all fear. That season may be a neutral season like the 2005 season. The season predictions are already high because la nina. The sst are likely to be high cause of the so called global warming(even though we are clearly getting colder.We may also have a intense tornado season as well. Imo
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: First forecast for 2011 by TSR=16/8/4
Surprised no one has posted the April update yet:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2011.pdf
14.2/7.5/3.6 with an ACE of 124.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2011.pdf
14.2/7.5/3.6 with an ACE of 124.
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
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cycloneye
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Re: TSR forecasts=April:14/8/4 / May:14/8/4
The May update by TSR stays on the same numbers as those that they released in April=14/8/4.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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cycloneye
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Re: TSR 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
The July update is up and are with the same numbers as in the past ones of April and May.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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Re: TSR 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
It's been dry and hot and I am concerned that the Gulf of Mexico has gotten much warmer as a result.
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My gut is numbers won't be far off, ACE forecast maybe a little on the low side with 127 but will probably be in the range of error the forecast has.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: TSR 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
TSR raises their numbers to 16/9/4. There is plenty to digest from the experts that came out yesterday and today.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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