(Surprising) October Hurricane Climatology for South Florida

[jinftl]

Tropical storm/hurricane climatology for South Florida for the month of October may surprise some - this is the busiest month of the season historically down here with more tropical storms and hurricanes effecting the area in October than any other month!!!

From NWS Miami:

Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month.

Although the number of hurricanes peak in October, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) which have impacted the area is less than in September. Since 1851, a total of 7 major hurricanes have affected the area, ranking behind September which has had 11 major hurricanes.

Another change from September to October is the origin and tracks of tropical cyclones. In September, most of the tropical cyclones which have impacted the area originated in the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and moving west northwest into our region. However, in October tropical cyclones tend to form in the western
Caribbean Sea with tracks towards the north or northeast into the local area.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf

[gatorcane]

Some of the globals are sniffing out western Caribbean development by this weekend or early next week. It's these systems that must be watched closely for us in south Florida looking at climatology.

[KWT]

Yeah many of the pros, esp Derek always used to say S.Florida had to pay attention in October because there are more systems that strike Florida from the SW then there are from any other direction...