Rest of season for NGOM

[lonelymike]

How does everyone feel about the hurricane season for the NGOM the rest of the year?
Over or another threat? Saw a thread made for the WGOM and got interested for what everyone thinks/

[m_ru]

October might be wild. Nobody could know for sure unless they're psychic. Are there any psychics on this board?

[Florida1118]

Think your season is coming to a close...I dont think you'll see much of anything (until next year...)

[gatorcane]

well looks like there is a giant trough that sits over the Eastern CONUS for 10+ days. Both the ECMWF and GFS agree on this....

Hmmm could it be over for the NGOM? You wouldn't think it would be given its a La Nina, but sometimes seasons end for most of the U.S by the end of September with Southern FL still a potential target through October.

[vbhoutex]

Opal 95. Need I say more? Isn't 1995 one of the analog years for this season? Not saying it will happen, but I am not about to think that this season is completely over for the GOM. Those of us in the W and NW GOM area are probably more in the clear than those to our E, but I do remember Jerry in 1989. As I always say NEVER SAY NEVER when talking the tropics.

[Agua]

Likely over.

[gatorcane]

Opal 95. Need I say more? Isn't 1995 one of the analog years for this season? Not saying it will happen, but I am not about to think that this season is completely over for the GOM. Those of us in the W and NW GOM area are probably more in the clear than those to our E, but I do remember Jerry in 1989. As I always say NEVER SAY NEVER when talking the tropics.

I hear you on Opal. But those troughs that the ECMWF and GFS are bringing into the Eastern CONUS may just be too much this time...and may be enough to cause SSTs to cool enough across the Northern GOM so that a significant threat may become less likely.

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB (and please don't ask me to exlpain...LOL)

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS DICTATING WHERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. Earlier it was further east.. next 2-3 weeks, in close. spells trouble

[gatorcane]

Not sure what that means above but check out the trough the euro has at 192 hours. They just keep coming......

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0092612!!/

[Steve]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... mwfnao.gif

[Stormcenter]

The Fat Lady is clearing her voice for those west of 90 Lat. for the possibility
of being affected by a "major" hurricane in 2010. IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree it appears our season is nearing a close with these troughs...

[MGC]

Can't forget Ida from last year....late November, hurricane just off the Louisiana coast. How long will this east coast trough hold on? Hurricane Hilda in 1964 beat a front to the Louisiana coast and did a sharp recurve near Baton Rouge. It can happen in October but it is rare......MGC

[LaBreeze]

Over and done with thankfully.

[frederic79]

Temps here forecast to be in 50's, down to near 50 on Monday night, for next 10 days. SST's get much cooler and diminish any chance of strong storm affecting NGOM in 2010. Fall has arrived!

[BigB0882]

As fun as storms can be to experience, I am really really enjoying this cooler and drier weather. I will be happy with an "end of season" call so long as we keep this weather.

[Ivanhater]

It really comes down to the placement of development. You get something developing in the BOC and a trough digging down, it will likely hit the NGOM ahead of the front like Opal.

[Stormcenter]

An Opal type storm is a rarity but always still a possibility during
any hurricane season.

[FireRat]

Florida will be the likeliest target October thru late November as the Caribbean will be fair game for several storms until the very day the season officially ends.

[hurricanehunter69]

We're not out of the woods yet. It's gonna be all about storm and development placement. Albeit a rarity for an opal type storm, the chances are gonna be much higher this year than an average year, due to the much higher levels of storm development. In other words, we'd have a much better chance of getting hit by a rock if 5 are thrown at us as opposed to just one...