Atlantic Hotter Than Before Katrina

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redheadcloud

Atlantic Hotter Than Before Katrina

#1 Postby redheadcloud » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:06 pm

Check out this frightening news from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-1 ... casts.html

We already know NOAA says up to 7 major hurricanes this year. Well hurricane expert William Gray says “I have been appointed by Chicken Little to inform you that the heart of the hurricane season has begun.” Uh oh. Gray is sounding the alarm bells right now.

This year, Gray and meteorologists at the U.S. National Hurricane Center say there’s more reason for concern that the sky will fall than any time since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. At least 15 more “named” storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or more will develop before the 2010 season ends, Colorado State researchers predict.


15 is a lot with just the rest of August, September and October to go. And maybe November. If what these people say is true we will have like seven tropical storms or hurricanes in one month!

Note: ConvergenceZone said in another thread that some could be fish. Here is the quote from ConvergenceZone.

But keep in mind that a large percentage of those "7" could be fish.....Long Tracking CV storms have the best shot at going major, and most of them recurve....There may be 1 or 2 majors though that the US may have to watch out for..
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#2 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:12 pm

SSTs have been near 2005 levels all season
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Re: Atlantic Hotter Than Before Katrina

#3 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:18 pm

that's right redheadcloud, and I stand by that quote.

Just because we have a certain amount of major hurricanes forecasted this year, doesn't mean that they are all going to hit land...For example, we are already seeing the "potential" of a major hurricane develping from a CV storm that is forecasted to curve it out to sea....

There's no evidence this early to suggest that any MAJOR hurricane that develops this year is going to be a threat to land....
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#4 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:47 pm

Worth noting the ECM long range suggests another 13NS developing after 1st September, that would be up there with some of the busiest 2nd halfs ever and if that happened would give 18NS a real shot...

CFS also is super agressive, its got a pretty exceptional September it has to be fair.
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#5 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:50 pm

KWT wrote:Worth noting the ECM long range suggests another 13NS developing after 1st September, that would be up there with some of the busiest 2nd halfs ever and if that happened would give 18NS a real shot...

CFS also is super agressive, its got a pretty exceptional September it has to be fair.


We already have 3 NS and if 13 NS develops after September 1st, that would be 16 NS and that would be very active. It would be close to 18 NS, which is still not out of the question. If 2005 season started in August, we would have 21 NS, while if it started in September, we would have 15 NS.
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Re: Atlantic Hotter Than Before Katrina

#6 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 15, 2010 5:50 pm

To quote from the article:
“Three storms have formed so far this season, a start that appears slow but is ahead of the statistical average. The second named storm, which doesn’t normally occur until Aug. 1, came in July, and the first hurricane, statistically due on or after Aug. 10, appeared in June.”

Perhaps those who have been insisting it’s been a slow season have read this.

What’s also interesting is the fact that the number of tropical waves hardly varies from year to year. I never knew that.
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