SW Caribbean Sea.........

[Dean4Storms]

12Z NOGAPS continues the trend of several runs now of this model showing development of a TC in the SW Carib. and then brings it over Nicaragua and Honduras but turns it northward to a position east of the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Carib. this upcoming week. Need to watch down there, as NOGAPS isn't a model that produces many phantom TC's from what I've witnessed.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... sLoop.html

[South Texas Storms]

yeah dean i guess im not the only one who noticed that. i think todays 12z run is at least 4 runs in a row of showing that. definitely another thing to keep an eye on.

[KWT]

The Nogaps is quite probably the worst model out there overall, if any other model shows anything then maybe but its probably just it have convective feedback issues IMO.

[Ivanhater]

Getting to that time of year when we have to watch all areas...anything can spin up quite quickly.

[Dean4Storms]

I can't think of any phantom storms from this model KWT, can you recently? I know the CMC is famous for them as well as the NAM, but NOGAPS usually does not have this problem. Now if you want to talk tracks and depths of storms that is another story.

We just need to watch it and see if anything gets going down there this week.

[Macrocane]

Actually this season the NOGAPS has been developing phantom storms in the Caribbean every now and then and that scenario only verified with Alex.

[Dean4Storms]

NOGAPS still with it at today's 0z run!!

[Portastorm]

NOGAPS still with it at today's 0z run!!

How about a link?

[floridasun78]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical but no loop so you need go per hour like next 48 hour look at top of page

[ColinDelia]

Looks like NOGAPS develops this out of the ITCZ.

[SouthFloridawx]

[South Texas Storms]

00z nogaps AGAIN shows a strengthening tropical cyclone approaching the yucatan peninsula in 180 hours heading WNW.
this model has been very consistent in showing development in this area next weekend.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is still on it

[South Texas Storms]

ivan do you believe something could develop from this? i mean its hard to ignore any model consistently showing tropical development.

[Florida1118]

ivan do you believe something could develop from this? i mean its hard to ignore any model consistently showing tropical development.

IMO, NOGAPS does this alot. I wouldnt count on it but still should be watched.

[Ivanhater]

I lean against anything with only one model on board, but at least a couple times a year a model will sniff something out well before other models do.

[ROCK]

its the NOGAPS which is slightly better than the NAM IMO.....We shall see but the CMC doesnt see squat in this time frame...that is very telling...

[South Texas Storms]

nonetheless, i think its definitely an area to keep an eye on.

[Sanibel]

There's a pretty intense blow-up of convection happening in the very southern BOC. Not worth a separate thread but worth a mention.

[Stratosphere747]

The GFS has been showing a potential feature in this area for quite a few runs. Started watching it last week with the always popular 384hr run and have been watching it since for some consistency. Aside from the first few (and) extremely long range runs it has mainly kept it weak and generally takes the energy into the extreme S Gulf and towards N Mexico.

This is the run from the 9th when I first brought it up on another board to pass the time -



Still there a week later though in the W Caribbean and not near as strong -